SHH · Industrials · Weekly analysis

900927Wave & cycle analysis

Shanghai Material Trading Co., Ltd.

Latest close USD 0.322 Week ending 9 Oct 2026 History 276 weeks

Current reading

The five-wave move is mature

The count describes a move that may be nearing its end. Watch for a confirmed reversal; maturity alone does not mean price has turned.

88/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Mature / manage risk Setup status

A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.

How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countFive-wave decline mature

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsCheck whether the move is losing support

1 readings are positive, 5 are negative and 1 are neutral. They describe current direction, not whether a mature move has finished.

Main uncertaintyHigh count stability

The most recent swing is still forming and can extend. A settled label needs a confirmed reversal.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values

Prices in USD · the history displayed on the chart
Week ending	Close	30-week trend	Fair Value
2023-09-29	0.402	0.4382	0.5067
2023-10-13	0.405	0.4365	0.505
2023-10-20	0.371	0.4342	0.5034
2023-10-27	0.38	0.4324	0.5019
2023-11-03	0.389	0.4315	0.5005
2023-11-10	0.387	0.4305	0.4989
2023-11-17	0.407	0.4304	0.4977
2023-11-24	0.406	0.4309	0.4966
2023-12-01	0.435	0.4317	0.4958
2023-12-08	0.407	0.4304	0.4947
2023-12-15	0.406	0.4295	0.4933
2023-12-22	0.384	0.4279	0.4919
2023-12-29	0.392	0.4266	0.4908
2024-01-05	0.374	0.4242	0.4896
2024-01-12	0.377	0.4196	0.488
2024-01-19	0.365	0.4163	0.4864
2024-01-26	0.437	0.4154	0.4852
2024-02-02	0.398	0.4132	0.4838
2024-02-09	0.402	0.4112	0.4824
2024-02-23	0.42	0.4098	0.4809
2024-03-01	0.414	0.4088	0.4797
2024-03-08	0.411	0.4068	0.4785
2024-03-15	0.435	0.4055	0.4774
2024-03-22	0.418	0.4043	0.4761
2024-03-29	0.413	0.4029	0.4748
2024-04-05	0.422	0.4029	0.4734
2024-04-12	0.429	0.4036	0.4721
2024-04-19	0.401	0.4032	0.4705
2024-04-26	0.405	0.4031	0.4691
2024-05-03	0.399	0.403	0.4675
2024-05-10	0.385	0.4025	0.4661
2024-05-17	0.379	0.4016	0.4646
2024-05-24	0.372	0.4016	0.4631
2024-05-31	0.368	0.4012	0.4616
2024-06-07	0.278	0.3975	0.4596
2024-06-14	0.293	0.3944	0.4578
2024-06-21	0.287	0.3904	0.4559
2024-06-28	0.289	0.3865	0.4541
2024-07-05	0.285	0.3815	0.4522
2024-07-12	0.283	0.3774	0.4504
2024-07-19	0.305	0.374	0.4487
2024-07-26	0.32	0.3719	0.4471
2024-08-02	0.322	0.3695	0.4455
2024-08-09	0.314	0.3675	0.4441
2024-08-16	0.311	0.3653	0.4427
2024-08-23	0.308	0.3634	0.4412
2024-08-30	0.312	0.3593	0.4399
2024-09-06	0.317	0.3566	0.4386
2024-09-13	0.325	0.354	0.4374
2024-09-20	0.329	0.351	0.4363
2024-09-27	0.363	0.3493	0.4355
2024-10-04	0.386	0.3484	0.4349
2024-10-11	0.383	0.3467	0.4341
2024-10-18	0.387	0.3457	0.4334
2024-10-25	0.396	0.3451	0.4328
2024-11-01	0.394	0.3442	0.4322
2024-11-08	0.417	0.3438	0.4318
2024-11-15	0.444	0.3452	0.4316
2024-11-22	0.432	0.3461	0.4314
2024-11-29	0.444	0.3476	0.4311
2024-12-06	0.444	0.3496	0.4309
2024-12-13	0.484	0.3531	0.431
2024-12-20	0.471	0.3564	0.4309
2024-12-27	0.46	0.3594	0.4308
2025-01-03	0.41	0.3638	0.4303
2025-01-10	0.41	0.3677	0.4297
2025-01-17	0.421	0.3722	0.429
2025-01-24	0.418	0.3765	0.4282
2025-01-31	0.414	0.3808	0.4274
2025-02-07	0.414	0.3852	0.4265
2025-02-14	0.407	0.3886	0.4256
2025-02-21	0.406	0.3914	0.4249
2025-02-28	0.399	0.394	0.4242
2025-03-07	0.404	0.397	0.4236
2025-03-14	0.408	0.4002	0.423
2025-03-21	0.416	0.4038	0.4226
2025-03-28	0.398	0.4067	0.4221
2025-04-04	0.394	0.4093	0.4215
2025-04-11	0.374	0.4109	0.4208
2025-04-18	0.365	0.4121	0.4199
2025-04-25	0.378	0.4126	0.4191
2025-05-02	0.37	0.4121	0.4183
2025-05-09	0.371	0.4117	0.4175
2025-05-16	0.377	0.4113	0.4168
2025-05-23	0.368	0.4104	0.416
2025-05-30	0.37	0.4096	0.4153
2025-06-06	0.368	0.408	0.4146
2025-06-13	0.362	0.4052	0.4138
2025-06-20	0.359	0.4028	0.4129
2025-06-27	0.364	0.4001	0.4122
2025-07-04	0.373	0.3978	0.4114
2025-07-11	0.387	0.3945	0.4107
2025-07-18	0.395	0.392	0.4101
2025-07-25	0.393	0.3898	0.4094
2025-08-01	0.388	0.389	0.4088
2025-08-08	0.394	0.3885	0.4083
2025-08-15	0.406	0.388	0.4078
2025-08-22	0.424	0.3882	0.4075
2025-08-29	0.42	0.3884	0.4071
2025-09-05	0.419	0.3886	0.4068
2025-09-12	0.422	0.3891	0.4064
2025-09-19	0.446	0.3904	0.4063
2025-09-26	0.429	0.3914	0.4061
2025-10-03	0.434	0.3924	0.4059
2025-10-10	0.428	0.3931	0.4058
2025-10-17	0.422	0.3933	0.4057
2025-10-24	0.431	0.3944	0.4059
2025-10-31	0.433	0.3957	0.4062
2025-11-07	0.416	0.3971	0.4062
2025-11-14	0.417	0.3988	0.406
2025-11-21	0.409	0.3998	0.4056
2025-11-28	0.407	0.4011	0.4051
2025-12-05	0.407	0.4023	0.4046
2025-12-12	0.396	0.4029	0.404
2025-12-19	0.396	0.4038	0.4034
2025-12-26	0.398	0.4048	0.4028
2026-01-02	0.396	0.4057	0.4024
2026-01-09	0.399	0.4069	0.4023
2026-01-16	0.40	0.4083	0.4021
2026-01-23	0.409	0.4098	0.4019
2026-01-30	0.399	0.4107	0.4017
2026-02-06	0.40	0.4111	0.4014
2026-02-13	0.401	0.4113	0.4011
2026-02-27	0.398	0.4115	0.4008
2026-03-06	0.392	0.4116	0.4004
2026-03-13	0.383	0.4112	0.3999
2026-03-20	0.372	0.4101	0.3994
2026-03-27	0.369	0.4083	0.3988
2026-04-03	0.356	0.4061	0.3983
2026-04-10	0.363	0.4043	0.3978
2026-04-17	0.364	0.4023	0.3975
2026-04-24	0.357	0.3994	0.3971
2026-05-01	0.345	0.3966	0.3967
2026-05-08	0.342	0.3935	0.3964
2026-05-15	0.341	0.3906	0.396
2026-05-22	0.34	0.3879	0.3953
2026-05-29	0.325	0.3843	0.3946
2026-06-05	0.323	0.3807	0.3939
2026-06-12	0.317	0.3774	0.3932
2026-06-19	0.324	0.3743	0.3924
2026-06-26	0.321	0.3713	0.3911
2026-07-03	0.322	0.3685	0.3902
2026-07-10	0.323	0.3657	0.3893
2026-07-17	0.322	0.3632	0.3884
2026-07-24	0.318	0.3606	0.3875
2026-07-31	0.322	0.3581	0.3866
2026-08-07	0.335	0.3561	0.3859
2026-08-14	0.334	0.3539	0.385
2026-08-21	0.334	0.3517	0.3841
2026-08-28	0.333	0.3492	0.3833
2026-09-04	0.329	0.3468	0.3825
2026-09-11	0.332	0.3446	0.3819
2026-09-18	0.327	0.3421	0.3814
2026-09-25	0.326	0.3397	0.3809
2026-10-02	0.326	0.3375	0.3803
2026-10-09	0.322	0.3355	0.3798

What to watch next

Weekly closing levels

Read these with the wave count, not as automatic trade instructions.

Earlier confirmation levelBelow USD 0.322 0.0% from the latest close

This is a reference for the mature move. It does not establish that another move in the same direction will follow.

Changes the wave viewAbove USD 0.335 4.0% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would break the current directional interpretation.

Earlier confirmed swing USD 0.335

A separate, confirmed price reference for the wider structure. It is not the current count’s failure level.

Confirmed 2026-08-07

Check the wave count and alternatives ↓

4-week return -3.0%

13-week return -0.3%

26-week return -11.3%

52-week return -25.8%

From 52-week high -26.5%

26-week volatility 11.5%

Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

Direction holds

A mature move needs fresh evidence

Below USD 0.322

The earlier confirmation is a reference for the completed advance or decline. It does not confirm a new move in the same direction.

No decision yet

Timing arrives; price does not turn

A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.

Count fails

Know what changes the view

Above USD 0.335

A weekly close beyond this boundary conflicts with the selected count. Review a fresh count instead of extending the old explanation.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

1 of 3 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 8.0% reversalA/B/C reset may be completing

78/100 pattern fit

Primary · 5.0% reversalFive-wave decline mature

95/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Tactical · 3.5% reversalPossible Wave 2 trough

63/100 pattern fit

02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 5.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Five-wave decline maturePrimary swing size · Leading90%

Possible Wave 2 troughPrimary swing size6%

A/B/C reset may be completingPrimary swing size4%

Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.

Leading wave count

Five-wave decline mature

90% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.322 Fails above 0.335 Count stability High · 100/100

Wave rules and proportions

PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.484; Wave 2 0.446.

PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 0.359; Wave 3 0.317.

PassWave 4 does not overlap Wave 1Wave 1 boundary 0.359; Wave 4 0.335.

PassWave 3 is not the shortest motive waveMotive lengths: 0.12, 0.13, 0.01.

FailWave 5 makes motive progressWave 3 0.317; Wave 5 0.322.

GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 70% of Wave 1.

GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 1.03× Wave 1.

GuidelineWave 4 retracement is proportionateRetraced 14% of Wave 3.

GuidelineWaves 2 and 4 show temporal alternationWave 2 lasted 13w; Wave 4 lasted 8w.

Strategic degreeA/B/C reset may be completing

Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeFive-wave decline mature

Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible Wave 2 trough

Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -3.9%

9 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.317

Pivot from 2026-06-12

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.335

Pivot from 2026-08-07

30-week trend 0.3355

Price is -4.0% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.3798

Price is -15.2% from Fair Value

52-week range position 9%

0.31 low · 0.438 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

1 readings are positive, 5 are negative and 1 are neutral. They describe current direction, not whether a mature move has finished.

71% directional agreement

Check whether the move is losing support.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

4.0% below trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Falling

Cycle alignment

Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction.

Mixed

Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-8.0

Market activity

Participation is weak

-18.8

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.7

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-15.9

Balance of readings Defensive

1 constructive, 5 weak and 1 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 9 Oct 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window

Now+7 weeks

10w bandEstimated 8w · Falling

9/100Repeat fit · 34.5 cycles of history

Trough: 30 Oct–27 Nov 2026 (+3–7w)Crest: 9 Oct–30 Oct 2026 (+0–3w)

20w bandEstimated 25w · Rising

Gaps in recent weekly history

0/100Repeat fit · 11.0 cycles of history

40w bandEstimated 41w · Troughing

Gaps in recent weekly history

15/100Repeat fit · 6.7 cycles of history

80w bandEstimated 100w · Falling

Gaps in recent weekly history

38/100Repeat fit · 2.8 cycles of history

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is falling. A recovery in price needs support from the other readings.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 38/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseFalling

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementMixed

50/100 rising alignment · 50/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low-

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high-

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w

Current phaseFalling

Repeat score9/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough11w

Possible next low3–7w

Typical / observed cycle20w / 25w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough16w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle40w / 41w

Current phaseTroughing

Repeat score15/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough13w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle80w / 100w

Current phaseFalling

Repeat score38/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough107w

Possible next low-

05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 44.3% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 26.5% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

Wave maturity
A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.
Cycle rollover
Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.
Multi-cycle risk
Hurst risk alignment is 50/100.

Downside risk check

Watch

44/100

Wave maturity25/25

Trend extension0/20

Range position0/15

Cycle rollover11/15

Multi-cycle risk8/15

Count instability0/10

Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.31

52-week high0.438

Annualised volatility11.5%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range2.5%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-44.3%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume65%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

42% constructive

10 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

8% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.

Peer-state horizon	Non-overlapping samples	Positive	Median	Median excess vs 000001.SS	Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks	570	49%	0.0%	-0.3%	-8.8% to 12.5%
13 weeks	218	50%	0.1%	-0.5%	-16.7% to 25.5%
26 weeks	123	57%	2.7%	0.5%	-14.6% to 32.9%

07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -0.6% across 89 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

90 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

-0.6%

13w

2.1%

26w

1.1%

Horizon	Matches	Positive	Median	Range
4 weeks	89	45%	-0.6%	-27.8% to 21.8%
13 weeks	80	55%	2.1%	-23.9% to 48.9%
26 weeks	68	52%	1.1%	-29.3% to 65.2%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 100/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-10-09 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.

How the count is built

Rules and data notes

Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2023-12-01	Confirmed	High	0.435	17.3%	6 weeks
2024-01-19	Confirmed	Low	0.365	-16.1%	7 weeks
2024-01-26	Confirmed	High	0.437	19.7%	1 weeks
2024-02-02	Confirmed	Low	0.398	-8.9%	1 weeks
2024-03-15	Confirmed	High	0.435	9.3%	5 weeks
2024-06-07	Confirmed	Low	0.278	-36.1%	12 weeks
2024-12-13	Confirmed	High	0.484	74.1%	27 weeks
2025-06-20	Confirmed	Low	0.359	-25.8%	27 weeks
2025-09-19	Confirmed	High	0.446	24.2%	13 weeks
2026-06-12	Confirmed	Low	0.317	-28.9%	37 weeks
2026-08-07	Confirmed	High	0.335	5.7%	8 weeks
2026-10-09	Forming	Low	0.322	-3.9%	9 weeks

Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

900927Wave & cycle analysis

The five-wave move is mature

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

A mature move needs fresh evidence

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Five-wave decline mature

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Watch

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

42% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Chart guide

Send a message

Evidence context

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

A mature move needs fresh evidence

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Five-wave decline mature

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Watch

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

42% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Stage Analysis ↗

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗