AMS · Technology · Weekly analysis

TWEKAWave & cycle analysis

TKH Group N.V.

Latest close EUR 53.30 Week ending 9 Oct 2026 History 276 weeks

Current reading

The five-wave move is mature

The count describes a move that may be nearing its end. Watch for a confirmed reversal; maturity alone does not mean price has turned.

55/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Mature / manage risk Setup status

A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.

How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countFive-wave advance mature

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsCheck whether the move is losing support

6 readings are positive, 0 are negative and 1 are neutral. They describe current direction, not whether a mature move has finished.

Main uncertaintyModerate count stability

The leading count changed 2 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values

Prices in EUR · the history displayed on the chart
Week ending	Close	30-week trend	Fair Value
2023-10-20	31.78	38.98	36.81
2023-10-27	31.12	38.64	36.86
2023-11-03	31.75	38.41	36.91
2023-11-10	32.48	38.15	36.94
2023-11-17	33.31	37.97	36.96
2023-11-24	33.13	37.77	36.97
2023-12-01	32.90	37.53	36.97
2023-12-08	33.92	37.32	36.98
2023-12-15	35.87	37.11	37.01
2023-12-22	35.39	36.88	37.03
2023-12-29	35.41	36.64	37.05
2024-01-05	33.49	36.36	37.04
2024-01-12	33.29	36.09	37.03
2024-01-19	32.45	35.87	37.03
2024-01-26	33.88	35.64	37.04
2024-02-02	33.27	35.36	37.04
2024-02-09	33.25	35.04	37.04
2024-02-16	34.37	34.76	37.04
2024-02-23	34.67	34.49	37.05
2024-03-01	35.05	34.26	37.06
2024-03-08	33.81	34.02	37.07
2024-03-15	32.97	33.90	37.07
2024-03-22	34.08	33.79	37.08
2024-03-29	35.41	33.71	37.09
2024-04-05	35.33	33.68	37.10
2024-04-12	36.50	33.75	37.11
2024-04-19	36.03	33.84	37.12
2024-04-26	35.46	33.90	37.14
2024-05-03	35.80	33.98	37.13
2024-05-10	36.93	34.10	37.13
2024-05-17	38.52	34.33	37.15
2024-05-24	39.77	34.62	37.17
2024-05-31	40.05	34.89	37.19
2024-06-07	39.82	35.14	37.21
2024-06-14	37.53	35.28	37.22
2024-06-21	37.75	35.43	37.24
2024-06-28	38.07	35.60	37.25
2024-07-05	41.12	35.84	37.28
2024-07-12	40.65	36.00	37.32
2024-07-19	38.46	36.11	37.34
2024-07-26	37.75	36.18	37.34
2024-08-02	35.77	36.26	37.33
2024-08-09	36.05	36.35	37.31
2024-08-16	34.59	36.42	37.25
2024-08-23	34.46	36.44	37.20
2024-08-30	34.65	36.49	37.13
2024-09-06	33.32	36.49	37.07
2024-09-13	34.29	36.49	37.01
2024-09-20	34.51	36.48	36.97
2024-09-27	35.69	36.50	36.94
2024-10-04	35.26	36.55	36.91
2024-10-11	35.15	36.62	36.86
2024-10-18	35.54	36.67	36.82
2024-10-25	35.62	36.68	36.79
2024-11-01	34.59	36.66	36.74
2024-11-08	34.12	36.58	36.67
2024-11-15	31.43	36.42	36.58
2024-11-22	29.65	36.23	36.50
2024-11-29	28.77	36.00	36.42
2024-12-06	29.07	35.73	36.34
2024-12-13	29.13	35.42	36.25
2024-12-20	30.55	35.11	36.16
2024-12-27	31.22	34.82	36.06
2025-01-03	31.84	34.55	35.98
2025-01-10	32.03	34.37	35.89
2025-01-17	32.38	34.19	35.83
2025-01-24	32.89	34.02	35.77
2025-01-31	33.26	33.76	35.70
2025-02-07	33.36	33.51	35.64
2025-02-14	34.68	33.39	35.59
2025-02-21	34.98	33.30	35.54
2025-02-28	34.65	33.26	35.53
2025-03-07	36.14	33.26	35.51
2025-03-14	36.29	33.32	35.47
2025-03-21	35.97	33.37	35.43
2025-03-28	35.21	33.39	35.38
2025-04-04	30.79	33.30	35.32
2025-04-11	31.52	33.21	35.26
2025-04-18	32.27	33.14	35.21
2025-04-25	32.87	33.04	35.16
2025-05-02	33.34	32.98	35.13
2025-05-09	34.01	32.94	35.11
2025-05-16	36.03	32.96	35.10
2025-05-23	35.45	32.95	35.08
2025-05-30	36.98	33.03	35.07
2025-06-06	36.46	33.11	35.07
2025-06-13	36.55	33.28	35.08
2025-06-20	35.39	33.47	35.11
2025-06-27	37.82	33.77	35.15
2025-07-04	37.04	34.04	35.18
2025-07-11	37.49	34.32	35.21
2025-07-18	37.51	34.55	35.24
2025-07-25	35.78	34.70	35.24
2025-08-01	34.51	34.79	35.25
2025-08-08	35.08	34.89	35.25
2025-08-15	32.82	34.90	35.25
2025-08-22	33.81	34.94	35.27
2025-08-29	33.68	34.95	35.29
2025-09-05	32.92	34.93	35.30
2025-09-12	32.78	34.87	35.31
2025-09-19	32.80	34.80	35.34
2025-09-26	33.77	34.77	35.37
2025-10-03	37.00	34.80	35.42
2025-10-10	35.76	34.78	35.48
2025-10-17	36.01	34.78	35.52
2025-10-24	37.82	34.87	35.57
2025-10-31	37.33	35.09	35.61
2025-11-07	36.81	35.26	35.62
2025-11-14	37.47	35.44	35.66
2025-11-21	35.95	35.54	35.68
2025-11-28	37.29	35.67	35.71
2025-12-05	37.10	35.77	35.73
2025-12-12	36.42	35.79	35.76
2025-12-19	35.43	35.79	35.78
2025-12-26	35.45	35.73	35.80
2026-01-02	36.26	35.73	35.82
2026-01-09	36.01	35.71	35.83
2026-01-16	36.17	35.74	35.84
2026-01-23	36.15	35.68	35.84
2026-01-30	36.03	35.65	35.83
2026-02-06	38.25	35.67	35.84
2026-02-13	38.62	35.71	35.85
2026-02-20	38.46	35.80	35.86
2026-02-27	38.01	35.91	35.86
2026-03-06	36.01	35.95	35.84
2026-03-13	37.43	36.10	35.83
2026-03-20	35.97	36.17	35.81
2026-03-27	36.13	36.25	35.77
2026-04-03	36.26	36.36	35.76
2026-04-10	39.59	36.59	35.75
2026-04-17	41.34	36.88	35.77
2026-04-24	41.46	37.13	35.79
2026-05-01	42.33	37.31	35.80
2026-05-08	45.17	37.62	35.83
2026-05-15	47.98	38.02	35.87
2026-05-22	46.88	38.33	35.90
2026-05-29	46.10	38.62	35.92
2026-06-05	44.10	38.86	35.94
2026-06-12	44.00	39.08	35.95
2026-06-19	44.50	39.36	35.99
2026-06-26	43.62	39.57	36.01
2026-07-03	43.82	39.80	36.02
2026-07-10	42.78	40.01	36.02
2026-07-17	42.94	40.26	36.02
2026-07-24	42.98	40.51	36.02
2026-07-31	42.56	40.72	36.03
2026-08-07	45.00	41.02	36.05
2026-08-14	52.20	41.56	36.15
2026-08-21	49.18	41.99	36.23
2026-08-28	51.65	42.51	36.31
2026-09-04	50.75	42.93	36.41
2026-09-11	51.95	43.37	36.52
2026-09-18	53.10	43.86	36.65
2026-09-25	53.70	44.38	36.78
2026-10-02	54.35	44.99	36.91
2026-10-09	53.30	45.52	37.04

4-week return 2.6%

13-week return 24.6%

26-week return 34.6%

52-week return 49.1%

From 52-week high -3.5%

26-week volatility 30.8%

Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

Direction holds

A mature move needs fresh evidence

Above EUR 53.30

The earlier confirmation is a reference for the completed advance or decline. It does not confirm a new move in the same direction.

No decision yet

Timing arrives; price does not turn

A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.

Count fails

Know what changes the view

Below EUR 42.56

A weekly close beyond this boundary conflicts with the selected count. Review a fresh count instead of extending the old explanation.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

3 of 3 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 9.7% reversalFive-wave advance mature

95/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Primary · 6.1% reversalFive-wave advance mature

95/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Tactical · 4.2% reversalFive-wave advance mature

95/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 6.1% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Five-wave advance maturePrimary swing size · Leading76%

Possible Wave 3 advancingPrimary swing size13%

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingPrimary swing size11%

Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.

Leading wave count

Five-wave advance mature

76% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 53.30 Fails below 42.56 Count stability Moderate · 68/100

Wave rules and proportions

PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 35.43; Wave 2 35.97.

PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 38.62; Wave 3 47.98.

PassWave 4 does not overlap Wave 1Wave 1 boundary 38.62; Wave 4 42.56.

PassWave 3 is not the shortest motive waveMotive lengths: 3.19, 12.01, 10.74.

PassWave 5 makes motive progressWave 3 47.98; Wave 5 53.30.

GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 83% of Wave 1.

GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 3.76× Wave 1.

GuidelineWave 4 retracement is proportionateRetraced 45% of Wave 3.

GuidelineWaves 2 and 4 show temporal alternationWave 2 lasted 5w; Wave 4 lasted 11w.

Strategic degreeFive-wave advance mature

Strategic degree uses a 9.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeFive-wave advance mature

Primary degree uses a 6.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeFive-wave advance mature

Tactical degree uses a 4.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 25.2%

10 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 42.56

Pivot from 2026-07-31

Nearest confirmed resistance -

Price is above prior confirmed highs

30-week trend 45.52

Price is 17.1% from trend

Fair Value reference 37.04

Price is 43.9% from Fair Value

52-week range position 91%

33.64 low · 55.25 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

6 readings are positive, 0 are negative and 1 are neutral. They describe current direction, not whether a mature move has finished.

86% directional agreement

Check whether the move is losing support.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

17.1% above trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising

Cycle alignment

Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction.

Mixed

Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+15.9

Market activity

Participation is supportive

+83.7

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+1.3

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+42.4

Balance of readings Constructive

6 constructive, 0 weak and 1 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 9 Oct 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window

Now+53 weeks

10w bandEstimated 12w · Cresting

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 23.0 cycles of history

20w bandEstimated 17w · Cresting

13/100Repeat fit · 16.2 cycles of history

Trough: 16 Oct–8 Jan 2027 (+1–13w)Crest: 11 Dec–5 Mar 2027 (+9–21w)

40w bandEstimated 50w · Rising

32/100Repeat fit · 5.5 cycles of history

Trough: 11 Dec–25 Jun 2027 (+9–37w)Crest: 2 Apr–15 Oct 2027 (+25–53w)

80w bandEstimated 61w · Rising

10/100Repeat fit · 4.5 cycles of history

Trough: 19 Feb–17 Sep 2027 (+19–49w)Crest: 15 Jan–13 Aug 2027 (+14–44w)

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 32/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementMixed

50/100 rising alignment · 50/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low7 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high15 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 12w

Current phaseCresting

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough5w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle20w / 17w

Current phaseCresting

Repeat score13/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough10w

Possible next low1–13w

Typical / observed cycle40w / 50w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score32/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough27w

Possible next low9–37w

Typical / observed cycle80w / 61w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score10/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough27w

Possible next low19–49w

05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 1.9% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 3.5% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

Wave maturity
A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.
Trend extension
Price is 17.1% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.
Range position
Price is 91% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.

Downside risk check

Elevated vulnerability

63/100

Wave maturity25/25

Trend extension17/20

Range position10/15

Cycle rollover0/15

Multi-cycle risk8/15

Count instability3/10

Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low33.64

52-week high55.25

Annualised volatility30.8%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range3.1%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-1.9%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume199%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That agrees with this report’s upward interpretation.

64% constructive

7 of 11 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

36% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.

Peer-state horizon	Non-overlapping samples	Positive	Median	Median excess vs ^AEX	Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks	251	44%	-0.7%	-1.1%	-12.2% to 13.3%
13 weeks	103	43%	-1.6%	-1.5%	-19.9% to 27.3%
26 weeks	58	43%	-2.5%	-6.0%	-34.8% to 43.0%

07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -1.1% across 80 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

81 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

-1.1%

13w

2.4%

26w

-3.6%

Horizon	Matches	Positive	Median	Range
4 weeks	80	45%	-1.1%	-14.8% to 16.1%
13 weeks	75	57%	2.4%	-27.1% to 24.3%
26 weeks	63	40%	-3.6%	-28.2% to 40.9%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 100/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-10-09 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.

How the count is built

Rules and data notes

Swing points use weekly closes and a 6.1% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2024-11-29	Confirmed	Low	28.77	-19.4%	9 weeks
2025-03-14	Confirmed	High	36.29	26.1%	15 weeks
2025-04-04	Confirmed	Low	30.79	-15.1%	3 weeks
2025-06-27	Confirmed	High	37.82	22.8%	12 weeks
2025-09-12	Confirmed	Low	32.78	-13.3%	11 weeks
2025-10-24	Confirmed	High	37.82	15.4%	6 weeks
2025-12-19	Confirmed	Low	35.43	-6.3%	8 weeks
2026-02-13	Confirmed	High	38.62	9.0%	8 weeks
2026-03-20	Confirmed	Low	35.97	-6.9%	5 weeks
2026-05-15	Confirmed	High	47.98	33.4%	8 weeks
2026-07-31	Confirmed	Low	42.56	-11.3%	11 weeks
2026-10-09	Forming	High	53.30	25.2%	10 weeks

Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

TWEKAWave & cycle analysis

The five-wave move is mature

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

A mature move needs fresh evidence

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Five-wave advance mature

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Elevated vulnerability

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

64% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Chart guide

Send a message

Evidence context

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

A mature move needs fresh evidence

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Five-wave advance mature

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Elevated vulnerability

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

64% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Stage Analysis ↗

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗