ASX · Basic Materials · Weekly analysis

MSVWave & cycle analysis

Mitchell Services Limited

Latest close AUD 0.525 Week ending 9 Oct 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to an advance

The selected pattern describes a move upward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

81/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible Wave 2 trough

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

6 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 0 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 6 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in AUD · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-10-200.29150.28630.3151
2023-10-270.29980.2880.3144
2023-11-030.3040.28990.3138
2023-11-100.29150.29130.313
2023-11-170.28730.29250.3123
2023-11-240.29150.29340.3113
2023-12-010.29150.29470.3105
2023-12-080.28730.29550.3097
2023-12-150.29980.29710.3092
2023-12-220.31650.29860.3084
2023-12-290.3290.30080.3077
2024-01-050.32060.30250.3071
2024-01-120.31650.30390.3064
2024-01-190.31230.30540.3056
2024-01-260.30810.30550.3049
2024-02-020.28320.30430.304
2024-02-090.29150.30340.3036
2024-02-160.29980.30210.3035
2024-02-230.32480.30240.3035
2024-03-010.29870.30180.3033
2024-03-080.30750.30180.3031
2024-03-150.31620.30220.3029
2024-03-220.34260.3030.3029
2024-03-290.3360.30430.3029
2024-04-050.33380.30520.303
2024-04-120.35580.30730.3031
2024-04-190.36460.30990.3034
2024-04-260.36890.31250.3038
2024-05-030.36020.31430.3041
2024-05-100.36890.31670.3047
2024-05-170.35140.31860.305
2024-05-240.35140.32040.3052
2024-05-310.39530.32340.3056
2024-06-070.36890.3260.306
2024-06-140.35580.32830.3062
2024-06-210.36890.33090.3066
2024-06-280.39090.33420.3071
2024-07-050.38650.33750.3074
2024-07-120.4260.34170.3079
2024-07-190.38650.3440.3081
2024-07-260.37330.34550.3082
2024-08-020.36020.34680.308
2024-08-090.3470.34780.3078
2024-08-160.36460.34960.3078
2024-08-230.34260.35070.3078
2024-08-300.36110.35330.3078
2024-09-060.34260.3550.3077
2024-09-130.36570.35720.3077
2024-09-200.37040.35870.3077
2024-09-270.37040.36110.3077
2024-10-040.34260.36230.3075
2024-10-110.35190.36350.3075
2024-10-180.35190.36380.3075
2024-10-250.33330.36370.3075
2024-11-010.33330.36370.3076
2024-11-080.31480.36230.3075
2024-11-150.31940.36080.3074
2024-11-220.31020.35890.3073
2024-11-290.31940.35750.3074
2024-12-060.30560.35540.3074
2024-12-130.31480.35420.3074
2024-12-200.30090.35250.3074
2024-12-270.30560.34950.3073
2025-01-030.31480.34770.3074
2025-01-100.31480.34630.3075
2025-01-170.34260.34550.3077
2025-01-240.31020.34280.3079
2025-01-310.29630.33980.3079
2025-02-070.33330.33670.3081
2025-02-140.31940.33440.3082
2025-02-210.29630.33190.3084
2025-02-280.2870.32940.3083
2025-03-070.26850.32680.3083
2025-03-140.25930.32330.308
2025-03-210.27310.3210.3078
2025-03-280.25460.31740.3074
2025-04-040.24070.3140.3069
2025-04-110.23150.30960.3065
2025-04-180.23150.30490.306
2025-04-250.24070.30060.3055
2025-05-020.23150.29690.305
2025-05-090.250.29350.3047
2025-05-160.25460.29030.3048
2025-05-230.25930.28780.3049
2025-05-300.25930.28530.305
2025-06-060.24540.2830.305
2025-06-130.23610.28020.3051
2025-06-200.22220.27730.3051
2025-06-270.21760.27390.3049
2025-07-040.23150.27150.3045
2025-07-110.30090.2710.3045
2025-07-180.27780.27020.3044
2025-07-250.26390.26880.3042
2025-08-010.24540.26650.3039
2025-08-080.250.26440.3036
2025-08-150.250.26130.3034
2025-08-220.24070.2590.3031
2025-08-290.26850.2580.3029
2025-09-050.26390.25570.3028
2025-09-120.27780.25430.3027
2025-09-190.25460.25290.3025
2025-09-260.26390.25220.3023
2025-10-030.27310.25230.3022
2025-10-100.29630.25350.3023
2025-10-170.31940.25510.3024
2025-10-240.30560.25680.3026
2025-10-310.30090.25880.3027
2025-11-070.29170.26080.3025
2025-11-140.30090.26310.3025
2025-11-210.2870.26470.3024
2025-11-280.27780.26620.3021
2025-12-050.29630.26770.3019
2025-12-120.29630.26910.3017
2025-12-190.31020.27080.3016
2025-12-260.30090.27220.3015
2026-01-020.31020.27440.3015
2026-01-090.31940.27720.3015
2026-01-160.31940.28040.3016
2026-01-230.32410.2840.3016
2026-01-300.37040.28860.3021
2026-02-060.35650.29040.3025
2026-02-130.39810.29440.3033
2026-02-200.5370.30350.3049
2026-02-270.480.31140.3063
2026-03-060.490.31940.3078
2026-03-130.480.3270.3093
2026-03-200.400.33230.3103
2026-03-270.440.33810.3115
2026-04-030.4350.34380.3127
2026-04-100.4850.35070.3142
2026-04-170.510.35920.3159
2026-04-240.520.36770.3175
2026-05-010.5050.37550.3191
2026-05-080.520.38290.3208
2026-05-150.500.38890.3224
2026-05-220.4650.39420.3236
2026-05-290.5250.40170.3253
2026-06-050.4950.40850.3267
2026-06-120.4750.41430.328
2026-06-190.450.41970.3292
2026-06-260.470.42610.3302
2026-07-030.530.43390.3316
2026-07-100.520.44140.3329
2026-07-170.5350.44890.3341
2026-07-240.5350.45670.3355
2026-07-310.46650.46190.3365
2026-08-070.49540.46770.3377
2026-08-140.52420.47460.3391
2026-08-210.50980.48080.3403
2026-08-280.5050.48530.3417
2026-09-040.5050.49020.3429
2026-09-110.5650.49580.3447
2026-09-180.530.49550.3463
2026-09-250.540.49750.3478
2026-10-020.550.49950.3494
2026-10-090.5250.5010.3509
4-week return -7.1%
13-week return 1.0%
26-week return 8.2%
52-week return 77.2%
From 52-week high -10.3%
26-week volatility 44.6%
Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

Direction holds

Wait for price confirmation

Above AUD 0.53

The count needs a weekly close beyond this reference, with supporting price and cycle evidence.

No decision yet

Timing arrives; price does not turn

A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.

Count fails

Know what changes the view

Below AUD 0.45

A weekly close beyond this boundary conflicts with the selected count. Review a fresh count instead of extending the old explanation.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

1 of 2 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 20.6% reversalNo rule-valid countInsufficient rule-valid geometry
Primary · 12.9% reversalPossible Wave 2 trough
58/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction
Tactical · 9.0% reversalBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing
72/100 pattern fit
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 12.9% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 2 troughPrimary swing size · Leading17%
Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingTactical swing size56%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestTactical swing size26%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible Wave 2 trough

17% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 0.53 Fails below 0.45 Count stability Low · 4/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.45; Wave 2 0.525.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 6% of Wave 1.
Strategic degreeNo valid count

Strategic degree uses a 20.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible Wave 2 trough

Primary degree uses a 12.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeBearish A/B/C rebound may be completing

Tactical degree uses a 9.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -0.9%

14 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.45

Pivot from 2026-06-19

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.53

Pivot from 2026-07-03

30-week trend 0.501

Price is 4.8% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.3509

Price is 49.6% from Fair Value

52-week range position 81%

0.2685 low · 0.585 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

6 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 0 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

86% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 6 readings support the selected direction; 0 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

4.8% above trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising
Cycle alignment

Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction.

Mixed
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+21.4
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+45.6
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.1
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+9.4
Balance of readings Constructive

6 constructive, 0 weak and 1 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This supports the upward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This supports the upward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 9 Oct 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window
Now+105 weeks
10w bandEstimated 11w · Cresting
18/100Repeat fit · 25.1 cycles of history
Trough: 20 Nov–18 Dec 2026 (+6–10w)Crest: 4 Dec–1 Jan 2027 (+8–12w)
20w bandEstimated 15w · Cresting
24/100Repeat fit · 18.4 cycles of history
Trough: 20 Nov–15 Jan 2027 (+6–14w)Crest: 27 Nov–22 Jan 2027 (+7–15w)
40w bandEstimated 30w · Rising
No measurable positive repeat
0/100Repeat fit · 9.2 cycles of history
80w bandEstimated 100w · Rising
65/100Repeat fit · 2.8 cycles of history
Trough: 26 Mar–27 Aug 2027 (+24–46w)Crest: 12 May–13 Oct 2028 (+83–105w)

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 65/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementMixed

50/100 rising alignment · 50/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low10 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high11 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 11w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score18/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough3w
Possible next low6–10w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score24/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough5w
Possible next low6–14w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough5w
Possible next low-
Typical / observed cycle80w / 100w
Current phaseRising
Repeat score65/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough65w
Possible next low24–46w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 7.1% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 10.3% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has low recent stability.

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 50/100.

  • Range position

    Price is 81% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.

Downside risk check

Contained

22/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position4/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk8/15
Count instability10/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.2685
52-week high0.585
Annualised volatility44.6%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range5.5%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-7.1%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume49%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

48% constructive

11 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

17% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^AXJOMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks70252%0.7%0.6%-11.2% to 13.9%
13 weeks26058%2.9%2.5%-14.6% to 28.2%
26 weeks14267%7.1%5.4%-21.7% to 44.0%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +1.1% across 102 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

103 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
1.2%
13w
3.8%
26w
1.8%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 102 53% 1.2% -25.5% to 65.7%
13 weeks 93 58% 3.8% -24.4% to 87.1%
26 weeks 83 54% 1.8% -31.3% to 89.0%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-10-09 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 12.9% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2025-01-17 Confirmed High 0.3426 13.8% 4 weeks
2025-06-27 Confirmed Low 0.2176 -36.5% 23 weeks
2025-07-11 Confirmed High 0.3009 38.3% 2 weeks
2025-08-22 Confirmed Low 0.2407 -20.0% 6 weeks
2025-10-17 Confirmed High 0.3194 32.7% 8 weeks
2025-11-28 Confirmed Low 0.2778 -13.0% 6 weeks
2026-02-20 Confirmed High 0.537 93.3% 12 weeks
2026-03-20 Confirmed Low 0.40 -25.5% 4 weeks
2026-05-29 Confirmed High 0.525 31.3% 10 weeks
2026-06-19 Confirmed Low 0.45 -14.3% 3 weeks
2026-07-03 Confirmed High 0.53 17.8% 2 weeks
2026-10-09 Forming Low 0.525 -0.9% 14 weeks
Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

Similar Charts ↗

Where else is this shape appearing?

Compare the weekly price path with other published market profiles.

Chart guide

Evidence context