LSE · Basic Materials · Weekly analysis

ATMWave & cycle analysis

Andrada Mining Limited

Latest close GBP 0.071 Week ending 25 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks

Current reading

The wave count points to an advance

The selected pattern describes a move upward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

95/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status

A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.

How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible Wave 3 advancing

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

7 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 0 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyModerate count stability

The leading count changed 3 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values

Prices in GBP · the history displayed on the chart
Week ending	Close	30-week trend	Fair Value
2023-10-06	0.062	0.0633	0.0541
2023-10-13	0.0605	0.064	0.0543
2023-10-20	0.058	0.0646	0.0546
2023-10-27	0.0575	0.065	0.0548
2023-11-03	0.059	0.0654	0.055
2023-11-10	0.057	0.0656	0.0552
2023-11-17	0.057	0.0656	0.0555
2023-11-24	0.056	0.0658	0.0557
2023-12-01	0.057	0.0661	0.0559
2023-12-08	0.057	0.0661	0.0561
2023-12-15	0.056	0.0661	0.0563
2023-12-22	0.053	0.0658	0.0565
2023-12-29	0.0515	0.0655	0.0567
2024-01-05	0.0534	0.0653	0.0568
2024-01-12	0.049	0.0646	0.0569
2024-01-19	0.0465	0.0633	0.057
2024-01-26	0.0435	0.0622	0.0571
2024-02-02	0.04	0.0611	0.0571
2024-02-09	0.0425	0.06	0.0571
2024-02-16	0.043	0.0588	0.0571
2024-02-23	0.043	0.0579	0.057
2024-03-01	0.045	0.057	0.057
2024-03-08	0.047	0.0563	0.0569
2024-03-15	0.0475	0.0556	0.0568
2024-03-22	0.044	0.0548	0.0567
2024-03-29	0.042	0.0539	0.0566
2024-04-05	0.044	0.0529	0.0565
2024-04-12	0.051	0.0521	0.0564
2024-04-19	0.0544	0.0515	0.0563
2024-04-26	0.0505	0.0509	0.0563
2024-05-03	0.0485	0.0505	0.0561
2024-05-10	0.048	0.0501	0.056
2024-05-17	0.0475	0.0497	0.056
2024-05-24	0.05	0.0495	0.0559
2024-05-31	0.0485	0.0491	0.0558
2024-06-07	0.0465	0.0488	0.0558
2024-06-14	0.046	0.0484	0.0557
2024-06-21	0.039	0.0478	0.0557
2024-06-28	0.0385	0.0472	0.0556
2024-07-05	0.0375	0.0466	0.0554
2024-07-12	0.0375	0.0459	0.0553
2024-07-19	0.036	0.0454	0.0552
2024-07-26	0.032	0.0447	0.0551
2024-08-02	0.031	0.044	0.0549
2024-08-09	0.033	0.0434	0.0548
2024-08-16	0.036	0.0431	0.0547
2024-08-23	0.035	0.0428	0.0545
2024-08-30	0.034	0.0426	0.0544
2024-09-06	0.0318	0.0423	0.0542
2024-09-13	0.036	0.042	0.0541
2024-09-20	0.035	0.0418	0.054
2024-09-27	0.0345	0.0414	0.0539
2024-10-04	0.035	0.041	0.0539
2024-10-11	0.0345	0.0406	0.0538
2024-10-18	0.0335	0.0402	0.0537
2024-10-25	0.0315	0.0399	0.0535
2024-11-01	0.029	0.0394	0.0534
2024-11-08	0.0275	0.0386	0.0533
2024-11-15	0.0245	0.0376	0.0531
2024-11-22	0.0245	0.0367	0.0529
2024-11-29	0.0275	0.036	0.0528
2024-12-06	0.0265	0.0353	0.0526
2024-12-13	0.0252	0.0346	0.0525
2024-12-20	0.0222	0.0336	0.0523
2024-12-27	0.0218	0.0328	0.052
2025-01-03	0.0222	0.0319	0.0518
2025-01-10	0.0235	0.0312	0.0516
2025-01-17	0.0225	0.0306	0.0513
2025-01-24	0.0218	0.0301	0.0511
2025-01-31	0.02	0.0295	0.0508
2025-02-07	0.0242	0.0291	0.0506
2025-02-14	0.0235	0.0286	0.0503
2025-02-21	0.022	0.0283	0.05
2025-02-28	0.0204	0.028	0.0497
2025-03-07	0.0278	0.0278	0.0494
2025-03-14	0.04	0.0279	0.0492
2025-03-21	0.0335	0.0279	0.0489
2025-03-28	0.0348	0.0279	0.0486
2025-04-04	0.0285	0.0278	0.0482
2025-04-11	0.027	0.0275	0.0478
2025-04-18	0.026	0.0272	0.0474
2025-04-25	0.0285	0.027	0.0471
2025-05-02	0.03	0.0268	0.0468
2025-05-09	0.03	0.0267	0.0466
2025-05-16	0.031	0.0266	0.0464
2025-05-23	0.03	0.0265	0.0462
2025-05-30	0.027	0.0265	0.0459
2025-06-06	0.0265	0.0264	0.0456
2025-06-13	0.0285	0.0266	0.0454
2025-06-20	0.0285	0.0267	0.0453
2025-06-27	0.0285	0.0267	0.0451
2025-07-04	0.0275	0.0268	0.0449
2025-07-11	0.028	0.0269	0.0448
2025-07-18	0.028	0.027	0.0447
2025-07-25	0.031	0.0274	0.0446
2025-08-01	0.03	0.0276	0.0444
2025-08-08	0.0295	0.0278	0.0443
2025-08-15	0.03	0.0281	0.0441
2025-08-22	0.0306	0.0284	0.044
2025-08-29	0.0325	0.0288	0.0439
2025-09-05	0.034	0.0291	0.0438
2025-09-12	0.035	0.0295	0.0437
2025-09-19	0.0305	0.0298	0.0435
2025-09-26	0.032	0.0302	0.0435
2025-10-03	0.0323	0.0303	0.0434
2025-10-10	0.0335	0.0301	0.0433
2025-10-17	0.0295	0.03	0.0433
2025-10-24	0.028	0.0297	0.0432
2025-10-31	0.031	0.0298	0.0431
2025-11-07	0.032	0.03	0.0431
2025-11-14	0.0335	0.0302	0.043
2025-11-21	0.0343	0.0304	0.0429
2025-11-28	0.033	0.0305	0.0429
2025-12-05	0.0335	0.0306	0.0428
2025-12-12	0.038	0.0309	0.0427
2025-12-19	0.0345	0.031	0.0426
2025-12-26	0.035	0.0313	0.0425
2026-01-02	0.0345	0.0316	0.0424
2026-01-09	0.0373	0.0318	0.0422
2026-01-16	0.0426	0.0323	0.0422
2026-01-23	0.0425	0.0328	0.0421
2026-01-30	0.042	0.0333	0.042
2026-02-06	0.0385	0.0336	0.0419
2026-02-13	0.039	0.034	0.0419
2026-02-20	0.038	0.0342	0.0418
2026-02-27	0.0415	0.0346	0.0418
2026-03-06	0.04	0.035	0.0418
2026-03-13	0.0375	0.0352	0.0418
2026-03-20	0.0325	0.0353	0.0417
2026-03-27	0.0298	0.0352	0.0416
2026-04-03	0.033	0.0351	0.0415
2026-04-10	0.0345	0.0351	0.0414
2026-04-17	0.04	0.0354	0.0413
2026-04-24	0.041	0.0357	0.0413
2026-05-01	0.043	0.0361	0.0412
2026-05-08	0.0415	0.0364	0.0411
2026-05-15	0.0408	0.0367	0.041
2026-05-22	0.0415	0.0372	0.0409
2026-05-29	0.038	0.0374	0.0408
2026-06-05	0.037	0.0376	0.0406
2026-06-12	0.039	0.0378	0.0404
2026-06-19	0.038	0.0379	0.0401
2026-06-26	0.0375	0.038	0.0399
2026-07-03	0.037	0.0382	0.0396
2026-07-10	0.037	0.0381	0.0394
2026-07-17	0.043	0.0384	0.0392
2026-07-24	0.041	0.0386	0.039
2026-07-31	0.0385	0.0388	0.0388
2026-08-07	0.0395	0.0388	0.0386
2026-08-14	0.0455	0.0389	0.0384
2026-08-21	0.0566	0.0394	0.0384
2026-08-28	0.059	0.04	0.0383
2026-09-04	0.0648	0.0408	0.0382
2026-09-11	0.059	0.0415	0.0381
2026-09-18	0.071	0.0426	0.0381
2026-09-25	0.071	0.0436	0.0381

What to watch next

Weekly closing levels

Read these with the wave count, not as automatic trade instructions.

Supports the wave viewAbove GBP 0.071 0.0% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would support the selected direction. Check the other readings too.

Changes the wave viewBelow GBP 0.0298 -58.0% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would break the current directional interpretation.

Earlier confirmed swing GBP 0.0298

A separate, confirmed price reference for the wider structure. It is not the current count’s failure level.

Confirmed 2026-03-27

Check the wave count and alternatives ↓

4-week return 20.3%

13-week return 89.3%

26-week return 138.3%

52-week return 121.9%

From 52-week high -5.3%

26-week volatility 62.5%

Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

Direction holds

Wait for price confirmation

Above GBP 0.071

The count needs a weekly close beyond this reference, with supporting price and cycle evidence.

No decision yet

Timing arrives; price does not turn

A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.

Count fails

Know what changes the view

Below GBP 0.0298

A weekly close beyond this boundary conflicts with the selected count. Review a fresh count instead of extending the old explanation.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

2 of 2 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 23.5% reversalNo rule-valid countInsufficient rule-valid geometry

Primary · 14.7% reversalPossible Wave 3 advancing

74/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Tactical · 10.3% reversalPossible Wave 3 advancing

69/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 14.7% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 3 advancingPrimary swing size · Leading52%

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completingPrimary swing size14%

Possible Wave 3 advancingTactical swing size34%

Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.

Leading wave count

Possible Wave 3 advancing

52% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 0.071 Fails below 0.0298 Count stability Moderate · 52/100

Wave rules and proportions

PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.028; Wave 2 0.0298.

PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 0.0426; Wave 3 0.071.

GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 88% of Wave 1.

GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 2.82× Wave 1.

Strategic degreeNo valid count

Strategic degree uses a 23.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible Wave 3 advancing

Primary degree uses a 14.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible Wave 3 advancing

Tactical degree uses a 10.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 138.3%

26 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.0298

Pivot from 2026-03-27

Nearest confirmed resistance -

Price is above prior confirmed highs

30-week trend 0.0436

Price is 62.9% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.0381

Price is 86.2% from Fair Value

52-week range position 92%

0.026 low · 0.075 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

7 of 7 available readings support the upward wave interpretation; 0 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

100% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 7 readings support the selected direction; 0 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

62.9% above trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising

Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are improving together.

Rising Stack

Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+70.2

Market activity

Participation is supportive

+98.3

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+1.7

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+71.1

Balance of readings Constructive

7 constructive, 0 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This supports the upward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This supports the upward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This supports the upward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 25 Sep 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window

Now+30 weeks

10w bandEstimated 8w · Rising

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 34.5 cycles of history

20w bandEstimated 20w · Rising

6/100Repeat fit · 13.8 cycles of history

Trough: 30 Oct–25 Dec 2026 (+5–13w)Crest: 13 Nov–8 Jan 2027 (+7–15w)

40w bandEstimated 30w · Rising

9/100Repeat fit · 9.2 cycles of history

Trough: 15 Jan–23 Apr 2027 (+16–30w)Crest: 30 Oct–5 Feb 2027 (+5–19w)

80w bandEstimated 100w · Rising

No measurable positive repeat

0/100Repeat fit · 2.8 cycles of history

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 9/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementRising Stack

100/100 rising alignment · 0/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low9 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high11 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough7w

Possible next low-

Typical / observed cycle20w / 20w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score6/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough11w

Possible next low5–13w

Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score9/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough7w

Possible next low16–30w

Typical / observed cycle80w / 100w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score0/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough82w

Possible next low-

05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 24.1% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 5.3% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

Trend extension
Price is 62.9% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.
Range position
Price is 92% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.
Count instability
The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability.

Downside risk check

Watch

35/100

Wave maturity0/25

Trend extension20/20

Range position10/15

Cycle rollover0/15

Multi-cycle risk0/15

Count instability5/10

Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.026

52-week high0.075

Annualised volatility62.5%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range10.3%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-24.1%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume176%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That agrees with this report’s upward interpretation.

54% constructive

13 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

17% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.

Peer-state horizon	Non-overlapping samples	Positive	Median	Median excess vs ^FTSE	Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks	691	51%	0.7%	0.1%	-10.4% to 14.6%
13 weeks	248	53%	3.4%	0.7%	-17.7% to 34.5%
26 weeks	140	54%	2.3%	0.6%	-21.6% to 56.0%

07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was -1.3% across 66 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

67 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

-1.3%

13w

2.0%

26w

6.9%

Horizon	Matches	Positive	Median	Range
4 weeks	66	46%	-1.3%	-32.5% to 64.1%
13 weeks	61	54%	2.0%	-28.8% to 55.3%
26 weeks	54	63%	6.9%	-44.1% to 62.0%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 100/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-09-25 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.

How the count is built

Rules and data notes

Swing points use weekly closes and a 14.7% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2024-08-02	Confirmed	Low	0.031	-43.0%	15 weeks
2024-09-13	Confirmed	High	0.036	16.1%	6 weeks
2025-01-31	Confirmed	Low	0.02	-44.4%	20 weeks
2025-02-07	Confirmed	High	0.0242	21.3%	1 weeks
2025-02-28	Confirmed	Low	0.0204	-15.9%	3 weeks
2025-03-14	Confirmed	High	0.04	96.1%	2 weeks
2025-04-18	Confirmed	Low	0.026	-35.0%	5 weeks
2025-09-12	Confirmed	High	0.035	34.6%	21 weeks
2025-10-24	Confirmed	Low	0.028	-20.0%	6 weeks
2026-01-16	Confirmed	High	0.0426	52.1%	12 weeks
2026-03-27	Confirmed	Low	0.0298	-30.0%	10 weeks
2026-09-25	Forming	High	0.071	138.3%	26 weeks

Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

ATMWave & cycle analysis

The wave count points to an advance

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 3 advancing

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Watch

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

54% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Chart guide

Send a message

Evidence context

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 3 advancing

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Watch

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

54% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Stage Analysis ↗

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗