SAU · Technology · Weekly analysis

9637Wave & cycle analysis

Axelerated Solutions for Inform

Latest close SAR 22.44 Week ending 25 Sep 2026 History 69 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to an advance

The selected pattern describes a move upward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

45/100 Setup score 52/100 Data quality Watching Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible Wave 2 trough

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings point the other way

7 of 7 available readings lean against the upward wave interpretation; 0 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

Main uncertaintyUnavailable count stability

The most recent swing is still forming and can extend. A settled label needs a confirmed reversal.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in SAR · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2025-06-0627.59Unavailable27.59
2025-06-1325.86Unavailable26.73
2025-06-2026.11Unavailable26.52
2025-06-2726.70Unavailable26.57
2025-07-0426.21Unavailable26.49
2025-07-1125.89Unavailable26.39
2025-07-1826.70Unavailable26.44
2025-07-2525.46Unavailable26.32
2025-08-0126.70Unavailable26.36
2025-08-0826.48Unavailable26.37
2025-08-1526.70Unavailable26.40
2025-08-2227.69Unavailable26.51
2025-08-2928.19Unavailable26.64
2025-09-0527.69Unavailable26.71
2025-09-1226.56Unavailable26.70
2025-09-1927.00Unavailable26.72
2025-09-2627.69Unavailable26.78
2025-10-0327.69Unavailable26.83
2025-10-1027.10Unavailable26.84
2025-10-1727.10Unavailable26.86
2025-10-2426.33Unavailable26.83
2025-10-3127.18Unavailable26.85
2025-11-0725.50Unavailable26.79
2025-11-1426.68Unavailable26.78
2025-11-2125.64Unavailable26.74
2025-11-2826.54Unavailable26.73
2025-12-0526.80Unavailable26.73
2025-12-1224.34Unavailable26.65
2025-12-1925.98Unavailable26.62
2025-12-2626.4826.6226.62
2026-01-0226.0026.5726.60
2026-01-0924.1126.5126.52
2026-01-1626.7826.5326.53
2026-01-2325.1026.4826.49
2026-01-3025.4826.4526.46
2026-02-0624.0326.3926.39
2026-02-1325.9626.3726.38
2026-02-2023.5026.3026.30
2026-02-2725.7026.2726.29
2026-03-0625.7026.2426.27
2026-03-1324.9426.1826.24
2026-03-2023.9826.0626.19
2026-03-2725.9225.9826.18
2026-04-0322.1525.8026.09
2026-04-1023.1425.6826.02
2026-04-1723.6225.5725.97
2026-04-2422.6625.4025.90
2026-05-0123.6225.2725.85
2026-05-0823.6125.1525.81
2026-05-1525.3825.0925.80
2026-05-2225.5025.0725.79
2026-05-2925.5025.0125.79
2026-06-0525.9825.0325.79
2026-06-1224.5624.9625.77
2026-06-1926.9625.0025.79
2026-06-2626.0024.9825.79
2026-07-0324.6224.9125.77
2026-07-1025.6824.9525.77
2026-07-1725.7024.9525.77
2026-07-2425.4024.9125.76
2026-07-3125.0024.8825.75
2026-08-0725.9024.9425.75
2026-08-1425.9624.9125.76
2026-08-2125.8624.9325.76
2026-08-2823.8624.8825.73
2026-09-0424.7724.9025.72
2026-09-1123.5024.8225.68
2026-09-1823.1424.8125.65
2026-09-2522.4424.7025.60
4-week return -6.0%
13-week return -13.7%
26-week return -13.4%
52-week return -19.0%
From 52-week high -20.2%
26-week volatility 35.8%
Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

Direction holds

Wait for price confirmation

Above SAR 26.96

The count needs a weekly close beyond this reference, with supporting price and cycle evidence.

No decision yet

Timing arrives; price does not turn

A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.

Count fails

Know what changes the view

Below SAR 22.15

A weekly close beyond this boundary conflicts with the selected count. Review a fresh count instead of extending the old explanation.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

2 of 2 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 17.3% reversalNo rule-valid countInsufficient rule-valid geometry
Primary · 10.8% reversalPossible Wave 2 trough
63/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction
Tactical · 7.6% reversalPossible Wave 2 trough
63/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 10.8% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible Wave 2 troughPrimary swing size · Leading50%
Possible Wave 2 troughTactical swing size50%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible Wave 2 trough

50% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm above 26.96 Fails below 22.15 Count stability Unavailable · 0/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 22.15; Wave 2 22.44.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 94% of Wave 1.
Strategic degreeNo valid count

Strategic degree uses a 17.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible Wave 2 trough

Primary degree uses a 10.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible Wave 2 trough

Tactical degree uses a 7.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -16.8%

14 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 22.15

Pivot from 2026-04-03

Nearest confirmed resistance 26.96

Pivot from 2026-06-19

30-week trend 24.70

Price is -9.2% from trend

Fair Value reference 25.60

Price is -12.3% from Fair Value

52-week range position 12%

21.66 low · 28.13 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

7 of 7 available readings lean against the upward wave interpretation; 0 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

100% directional agreement

The other readings point the other way. 0 readings support the selected direction; 7 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

9.2% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Falling
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-7.8
Market activity

Participation is weak

-18.5
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.8
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-12.7
Balance of readings Defensive

0 constructive, 7 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is weak. This challenges the upward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This challenges the upward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This challenges the upward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is weak. This challenges the upward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 25 Sep 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window
Now+17 weeks
10w bandEstimated 10w · Falling
No measurable positive repeat
0/100Repeat fit · 6.9 cycles of history
20w bandEstimated 21w · Falling
12/100Repeat fit · 3.3 cycles of history
Trough: 27 Nov–22 Jan 2027 (+9–17w)Crest: 23 Oct–18 Dec 2026 (+4–12w)
40w bandEstimated 40w · Falling
Fewer than two estimated cycles
0/100Repeat fit · 1.7 cycles of history
80w bandEstimated 80w · Warming
Fewer than two estimated cycles
0/100Repeat fit · 0.9 cycles of history

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is falling. A recovery in price needs support from the other readings.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 12/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseFalling

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

12/100 rising alignment · 88/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low13 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high8 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 10w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough8w
Possible next low-
Typical / observed cycle20w / 21w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score12/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough8w
Possible next low9–17w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 40w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough23w
Possible next low-
Typical / observed cycle80w / 80w
Current phaseWarming
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough-
Possible next low-
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 20.4% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 20.2% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 88/100.

  • Cycle rollover

    Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability.

Downside risk check

Watch

34/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover11/15
Multi-cycle risk13/15
Count instability10/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low21.66
52-week high28.13
Annualised volatility35.8%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range5.7%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-20.4%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume5%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

50% constructive

6 of 12 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

8% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^TASI.SRMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks27440%-1.5%-1.2%-12.5% to 12.2%
13 weeks9737%-3.1%-5.2%-22.0% to 24.4%
26 weeks5239%-11.4%-8.3%-27.4% to 27.5%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

There are not enough completed, comparable outcomes to draw a useful historical comparison.

0 similar weekly states
Not enough comparable history yet

Historical context appears only when at least eight completed outcomes are available for one of the measured horizons.

At least 90 weekly observations are required.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality52/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
27/100
Indicator coverage
73/100
Confirmed structure
50/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-09-25 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 10.8% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2026-03-27 Confirmed High 25.92 - 0 weeks
2026-04-03 Confirmed Low 22.15 -14.5% 1 weeks
2026-06-19 Confirmed High 26.96 21.7% 11 weeks
2026-09-25 Forming Low 22.44 -16.8% 14 weeks
Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

Chart guide

Evidence context