SAO · Communication Services · Weekly analysis

O1MC34Wave & cycle analysis

Omnicom Group Inc.

Latest close BRL 199.00 Week ending 25 Sep 2026 History 276 weeks
Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

79/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status
A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.
How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countHurst crest risk

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings support this direction

5 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

Main uncertaintyLow count stability

The leading count changed 7 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values
Prices in BRL · the history displayed on the chart
Week endingClose30-week trendFair Value
2023-10-06180.21200.67177.54
2023-10-13178.47199.59177.87
2023-10-20176.50198.38178.18
2023-10-27173.82196.79178.59
2023-11-03180.08195.53179.01
2023-11-10174.78194.15179.31
2023-11-17181.33192.99179.62
2023-11-24185.45192.18179.89
2023-12-01187.86191.59180.19
2023-12-08190.68190.93180.52
2023-12-15203.18190.50180.96
2023-12-22198.18190.13181.35
2023-12-29198.38189.72181.75
2024-01-05198.58189.14182.09
2024-01-12205.24188.83182.48
2024-01-19205.87188.72182.87
2024-01-26209.47188.58183.22
2024-02-02211.00188.53183.58
2024-02-09200.96188.03183.91
2024-02-16205.75188.62184.23
2024-02-23208.87189.48184.51
2024-03-01208.04190.22184.73
2024-03-08217.82191.37184.93
2024-03-15220.65192.53185.19
2024-03-22223.72193.92185.45
2024-03-29232.53195.53185.77
2024-04-05223.16196.85186.01
2024-04-12220.19198.30186.20
2024-04-19229.10200.16186.44
2024-04-26234.37202.14186.71
2024-05-03224.31203.61186.90
2024-05-10235.32205.51187.15
2024-05-17234.37207.43187.44
2024-05-24233.67209.43187.75
2024-05-31230.02211.09188.05
2024-06-07231.99213.00188.34
2024-06-14227.39214.54188.61
2024-06-21233.75216.15188.92
2024-06-28238.54217.84189.31
2024-07-05231.99219.21189.64
2024-07-12241.17220.48190.04
2024-07-19242.11221.94190.55
2024-07-26258.53223.95191.15
2024-08-02250.91225.69191.67
2024-08-09246.59227.07192.15
2024-08-16251.32228.59192.69
2024-08-23259.17230.24193.29
2024-08-30270.11232.21193.95
2024-09-06265.02234.35194.59
2024-09-13266.63236.38195.21
2024-09-20272.01238.48195.82
2024-09-27270.89240.58196.44
2024-10-04264.70242.14196.96
2024-10-11277.08244.02197.56
2024-10-18285.05246.07198.26
2024-10-25274.66247.47198.95
2024-11-01281.08249.40199.68
2024-11-08289.09251.70200.48
2024-11-15291.88253.79201.30
2024-11-22285.07255.48202.07
2024-11-29301.57258.06202.90
2024-12-06300.21260.22203.71
2024-12-13262.24261.15204.21
2024-12-20262.09262.10204.73
2024-12-27259.76263.09205.22
2025-01-03256.37263.90205.61
2025-01-10243.35264.43205.92
2025-01-17251.15265.01206.37
2025-01-24245.45265.24206.83
2025-01-31243.62265.63207.23
2025-02-07234.74265.41207.47
2025-02-14228.00264.94207.70
2025-02-21226.42263.87207.92
2025-02-28232.46263.26208.27
2025-03-07229.13262.68208.62
2025-03-14225.32261.81208.84
2025-03-21224.21260.65209.11
2025-03-28223.31259.09209.38
2025-04-04206.60257.14209.64
2025-04-11214.03255.38209.96
2025-04-18205.94253.18210.19
2025-04-25208.62251.11210.44
2025-05-02208.62249.24210.66
2025-05-09208.62246.95210.88
2025-05-16208.62244.41211.19
2025-05-23208.62242.21211.51
2025-05-30208.62239.79211.84
2025-06-06208.62237.11212.19
2025-06-13209.95234.38212.59
2025-06-20209.95231.87212.96
2025-06-27209.95228.82213.31
2025-07-04209.95225.81213.67
2025-07-11199.07223.71213.93
2025-07-18194.09221.44214.08
2025-07-25202.47219.53214.33
2025-08-01202.73217.74214.59
2025-08-08202.73216.39214.83
2025-08-15194.44214.50215.00
2025-08-22194.44212.80215.23
2025-08-29194.44211.16215.48
2025-09-05207.83210.26215.77
2025-09-12207.83209.59216.08
2025-09-19207.83208.97216.45
2025-09-26201.88207.95216.74
2025-10-03213.01207.41217.11
2025-10-10208.50206.85217.41
2025-10-17206.59206.26217.68
2025-10-24216.43206.03217.94
2025-10-31205.56206.00218.20
2025-11-07205.56205.72218.30
2025-11-14205.56205.70218.41
2025-11-21205.56205.60218.48
2025-11-28189.26204.96218.49
2025-12-05187.29204.25218.53
2025-12-12187.29203.54218.54
2025-12-19221.28203.96218.73
2025-12-26224.44204.48218.90
2026-01-02224.72205.02219.01
2026-01-09224.72205.51219.18
2026-01-16208.87205.48219.23
2026-01-23208.87205.44219.28
2026-01-30199.12205.08219.16
2026-02-06199.12205.08219.03
2026-02-13199.12205.25218.88
2026-02-20206.89205.40218.80
2026-02-27216.38205.85218.78
2026-03-06218.96206.39218.83
2026-03-13220.37207.26218.89
2026-03-20197.60207.36218.79
2026-03-27198.04207.48218.64
2026-04-03198.04207.16218.52
2026-04-10196.56206.78218.39
2026-04-17194.80206.35218.25
2026-04-24189.61205.94218.12
2026-05-01191.89205.23218.04
2026-05-08190.12204.62217.91
2026-05-15184.16203.87217.70
2026-05-22184.01202.79217.54
2026-05-29183.11202.04217.36
2026-06-05183.11201.30217.15
2026-06-12184.49200.59216.96
2026-06-19184.49199.89216.80
2026-06-26184.49199.73216.61
2026-07-03203.77200.28216.56
2026-07-10208.44200.99216.51
2026-07-17208.44200.56216.64
2026-07-24208.44200.03216.80
2026-07-31222.33199.95217.04
2026-08-07211.26199.50217.22
2026-08-14209.91199.53217.37
2026-08-21209.91199.57217.55
2026-08-28227.63200.52217.83
2026-09-04221.90201.28218.07
2026-09-11221.90202.04218.36
2026-09-18199.00201.77218.53
2026-09-25199.00201.19218.68
4-week return -12.6%
13-week return 7.9%
26-week return 0.5%
52-week return -1.4%
From 52-week high -12.6%
26-week volatility 27.9%
Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

Direction holds

Wait for price confirmation

Below BRL 199.00

The count needs a weekly close beyond this reference, with supporting price and cycle evidence.

No decision yet

Timing arrives; price does not turn

A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.

Count fails

Know what changes the view

Above BRL 227.63

A weekly close beyond this boundary conflicts with the selected count. Review a fresh count instead of extending the old explanation.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

3 of 3 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 8.0% reversalPossible bearish Wave 2 crest
58/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction
Primary · 5.0% reversalPossible bearish Wave 2 crest
58/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction
Tactical · 3.5% reversalPossible bearish Wave 2 crest
58/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction
02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 5.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size · Leading33%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestStrategic swing size33%
Possible bearish Wave 2 crestTactical swing size33%
Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.
Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

33% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 199.00 Fails above 227.63 Count stability Low · 0/100
Wave rules and proportions
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 227.63; Wave 2 199.00.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 0% of Wave 1.
Strategic degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 0.0%

1 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 183.11

Pivot from 2026-06-05

Nearest confirmed resistance 227.63

Pivot from 2026-08-28

30-week trend 201.19

Price is -1.1% from trend

Fair Value reference 218.68

Price is -9.0% from Fair Value

52-week range position 38%

181.67 low · 227.63 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

5 of 7 available readings support the downward wave interpretation; 2 lean against it. Agreement adds context, but does not guarantee the next move.

71% directional agreement

The other readings support this direction. 5 readings support the selected direction; 2 lean against it.

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

1.1% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Cresting
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-9.1
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+22.4
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.4
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-8.0
Balance of readings Defensive

2 constructive, 5 weak and 0 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Underperforming its benchmark. This supports the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is negative. This supports the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 25 Sep 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window
Now+101 weeks
10w bandEstimated 8w · Falling
17/100Repeat fit · 34.5 cycles of history
Trough: 2 Oct–30 Oct 2026 (+1–5w)Crest: 9 Oct–6 Nov 2026 (+2–6w)
20w bandEstimated 15w · Falling
8/100Repeat fit · 18.4 cycles of history
Trough: 30 Oct–8 Jan 2027 (+5–15w)Crest: 9 Oct–18 Dec 2026 (+2–12w)
40w bandEstimated 30w · Cresting
No measurable positive repeat
0/100Repeat fit · 9.2 cycles of history
80w bandEstimated 100w · Troughing
55/100Repeat fit · 2.8 cycles of history
Trough: 17 Mar–1 Sep 2028 (+77–101w)Crest: 26 Nov–12 May 2028 (+61–85w)

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is near a high and starting to turn. Watch whether price and momentum also weaken.

Cycle repeat scores range from 0 to 55/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseCresting

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementFalling Stack

25/100 rising alignment · 75/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low10 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high7 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score17/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough5w
Possible next low1–5w
Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w
Current phaseFalling
Repeat score8/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough5w
Possible next low5–15w
Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w
Current phaseCresting
Repeat score0/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up
Since last trough15w
Possible next low-
Typical / observed cycle80w / 100w
Current phaseTroughing
Repeat score55/100
Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down
Since last trough11w
Possible next low77–101w
05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 34.0% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 12.6% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

  • Cycle rollover

    Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.

  • Multi-cycle risk

    Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.

  • Count instability

    The primary interpretation has low recent stability.

Downside risk check

Watch

36/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover15/15
Multi-cycle risk11/15
Count instability10/10
Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low181.67
52-week high227.63
Annualised volatility27.9%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range1.9%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-34.0%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume2%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Upward wave counts are not a majority among the analysed peers. That alone does not establish a downward sector trend.

48% constructive

11 of 23 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

22% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.
Peer-state horizonNon-overlapping samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^BVSPMiddle 80% of returns
4 weeks17549%-0.2%-1.3%-10.4% to 10.3%
13 weeks9749%-0.3%-4.8%-23.7% to 25.3%
26 weeks7244%-6.2%-9.8%-27.0% to 42.3%
07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +7.7% across 13 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

13 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
7.7%
13w
14.3%
26w
20.6%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 13 69% 7.7% -5.5% to 20.0%
13 weeks 13 69% 14.3% -14.5% to 34.7%
26 weeks 12 67% 20.6% -19.9% to 41.8%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations
Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-09-25 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.
How the count is built

Rules and data notes

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2025-07-18 Confirmed Low 194.09 -35.6% 33 weeks
2025-10-24 Confirmed High 216.43 11.5% 14 weeks
2025-12-12 Confirmed Low 187.29 -13.5% 7 weeks
2026-01-09 Confirmed High 224.72 20.0% 4 weeks
2026-02-13 Confirmed Low 199.12 -11.4% 5 weeks
2026-03-13 Confirmed High 220.37 10.7% 4 weeks
2026-06-05 Confirmed Low 183.11 -16.9% 12 weeks
2026-07-31 Confirmed High 222.33 21.4% 8 weeks
2026-08-21 Confirmed Low 209.91 -5.6% 3 weeks
2026-08-28 Confirmed High 227.63 8.4% 1 weeks
2026-09-18 Confirmed Low 199.00 -12.6% 3 weeks
2026-09-25 Forming High 199.00 0.0% 1 weeks
Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

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Where else is this shape appearing?

Compare the weekly price path with other published market profiles.

Chart guide

Evidence context