LSE · Basic Materials · Weekly analysis

AMGOWave & cycle analysis

Amigo Resources PLC

Latest close GBP 0.028 Week ending 2 Oct 2026 History 276 weeks

Current reading

The wave count points to a decline

The selected pattern describes a move downward. Compare it with trend, momentum and the price levels below before drawing a conclusion.

37/100 Setup score 100/100 Data quality Watching Setup status

A setup score is a measure of fit, not a probability or price forecast.

How to use this report

Start with price. Read the selected pattern and the weekly closing levels beside the chart. “Confirm” means a move supports that interpretation; it does not guarantee a return.

Compare the evidence. A wave count can disagree with the trend, momentum or sector. The report points out those differences before looking at timing.

Check the limits. Timing windows are estimates, the last swing can move, and historical outcomes vary. Open the rules and data notes for more detail.

01 · Price & key levels

The pattern and the prices to watch

Selected wave countPossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Numbers 1 to 5 label the successive legs of the selected wave pattern. The last point can still move.

Other readingsThe other readings point the other way

6 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 0 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

Main uncertaintyHigh count stability

The leading count changed 1 times across the last 9 checks. Keep the alternative interpretations in view.

Weekly price and wave pattern

Move across the chart to inspect a week. Turn on explanations for a guide to the marked points.

Weekly close30-week trendFair ValueConfirmationCount failureSelected pattern

The shaded area marks the selected pattern. Filled dots mark confirmed turns; the outlined dot is still forming. Prices use completed weeks; changing the chart range does not recalculate the count.

Weekly chart values

Prices in GBP · the history displayed on the chart
Week ending	Close	30-week trend	Fair Value
2023-10-13	0.00375	0.004698	0.0617
2023-10-20	0.004	0.004742	0.0611
2023-10-27	0.004	0.004808	0.0606
2023-11-03	0.004	0.004875	0.0602
2023-11-10	0.004	0.00495	0.0596
2023-11-17	0.00325	0.00495	0.059
2023-11-24	0.00325	0.004958	0.0584
2023-12-01	0.00225	0.004933	0.0578
2023-12-08	0.0015	0.004892	0.0572
2023-12-15	0.0015	0.0048	0.0566
2023-12-22	0.00225	0.004767	0.0561
2023-12-29	0.002	0.004725	0.0556
2024-01-05	0.002	0.004542	0.055
2024-01-12	0.00125	0.004408	0.0545
2024-01-19	0.0015	0.004242	0.0539
2024-01-26	0.002	0.004108	0.0535
2024-02-02	0.002	0.004	0.0531
2024-02-09	0.00175	0.003825	0.0527
2024-02-16	0.00225	0.003608	0.0521
2024-02-23	0.00225	0.0035	0.0513
2024-03-01	0.002	0.00335	0.0505
2024-03-08	0.00195	0.003198	0.0496
2024-03-15	0.00175	0.003043	0.049
2024-03-22	0.002	0.00294	0.048
2024-03-29	0.00325	0.002807	0.0471
2024-04-05	0.00275	0.002732	0.0462
2024-04-12	0.00275	0.002665	0.0452
2024-04-19	0.00265	0.002603	0.0441
2024-04-26	0.00225	0.002528	0.0426
2024-05-03	0.00252	0.002487	0.0409
2024-05-10	0.00265	0.002451	0.0395
2024-05-17	0.0026	0.002404	0.0385
2024-05-24	0.0024	0.002351	0.038
2024-05-31	0.0024	0.002297	0.0374
2024-06-07	0.0024	0.002244	0.0369
2024-06-14	0.0024	0.002216	0.0364
2024-06-21	0.00185	0.002169	0.0358
2024-06-28	0.00185	0.002156	0.0352
2024-07-05	0.00205	0.002174	0.0346
2024-07-12	0.00205	0.002192	0.0341
2024-07-19	0.00205	0.002186	0.0336
2024-07-26	0.00205	0.002187	0.033
2024-08-02	0.00205	0.002189	0.0325
2024-08-09	0.00205	0.002216	0.032
2024-08-16	0.00205	0.002234	0.0315
2024-08-23	0.00215	0.002239	0.031
2024-08-30	0.0028	0.002266	0.0304
2024-09-06	0.005	0.002374	0.0296
2024-09-13	0.005	0.002466	0.0289
2024-09-20	0.0065	0.002607	0.0282
2024-09-27	0.006	0.002741	0.0275
2024-10-04	0.0055	0.002859	0.0267
2024-10-11	0.00525	0.002976	0.026
2024-10-18	0.00475	0.003067	0.0253
2024-10-25	0.004	0.003092	0.0245
2024-11-01	0.005	0.003167	0.0238
2024-11-08	0.0055	0.003259	0.0231
2024-11-15	0.0052	0.003344	0.0225
2024-11-22	0.00525	0.003444	0.0218
2024-11-29	0.0045	0.00351	0.0214
2024-12-06	0.0045	0.003572	0.021
2024-12-13	0.0045	0.003635	0.0207
2024-12-20	0.004	0.003688	0.0203
2024-12-27	0.004	0.003742	0.0199
2025-01-03	0.0045	0.003812	0.0196
2025-01-10	0.0045	0.003882	0.0193
2025-01-17	0.0045	0.00397	0.0189
2025-01-24	0.0045	0.004058	0.0188
2025-01-31	0.0045	0.00414	0.0185
2025-02-07	0.0045	0.004222	0.0183
2025-02-14	0.0045	0.004303	0.0182
2025-02-21	0.003	0.004335	0.018
2025-02-28	0.00475	0.004425	0.0178
2025-03-07	0.0045	0.004507	0.0175
2025-03-14	0.0045	0.004588	0.0172
2025-03-21	0.004	0.00465	0.0169
2025-03-28	0.0035	0.004673	0.0166
2025-04-04	0.0035	0.004623	0.0164
2025-04-11	0.00325	0.004565	0.0161
2025-04-18	0.00325	0.004457	0.0157
2025-04-25	0.00325	0.004365	0.0154
2025-05-02	0.00325	0.00429	0.015
2025-05-09	0.00325	0.004223	0.0146
2025-05-16	0.00275	0.004157	0.0142
2025-05-23	0.00275	0.004115	0.0138
2025-05-30	0.00275	0.00404	0.0134
2025-06-06	0.0025	0.00394	0.0131
2025-06-13	0.0025	0.00385	0.0127
2025-06-20	0.0025	0.003758	0.0124
2025-06-27	0.00275	0.0037	0.0122
2025-07-04	0.00375	0.003675	0.0119
2025-07-11	0.0035	0.003642	0.0116
2025-07-18	0.00275	0.0036	0.0114
2025-07-25	0.00275	0.003558	0.0112
2025-08-01	0.0025	0.003492	0.0109
2025-08-08	0.0025	0.003425	0.0106
2025-08-15	0.0028	0.003368	0.0102
2025-08-22	0.00275	0.00331	0.00999
2025-08-29	0.00275	0.003252	0.00974
2025-09-05	0.00275	0.003193	0.009487
2025-09-12	0.0025	0.003127	0.009249
2025-09-19	0.0035	0.003143	0.009015
2025-09-26	0.00325	0.003093	0.008791
2025-10-03	0.003	0.003043	0.00856
2025-10-10	0.00425	0.003035	0.008241
2025-10-17	0.00325	0.00301	0.00799
2025-10-24	0.003	0.002993	0.007727
2025-10-31	0.00375	0.003002	0.007469
2025-11-07	0.00475	0.003052	0.007189
2025-11-14	0.0035	0.00306	0.006869
2025-11-21	0.0035	0.003068	0.00656
2025-11-28	0.005	0.003127	0.006285
2025-12-05	0.00475	0.003177	0.006017
2025-12-12	0.00525	0.00326	0.005769
2025-12-19	0.00475	0.003327	0.005542
2025-12-26	0.009	0.003535	0.005312
2026-01-02	0.00725	0.003693	0.005066
2026-01-09	0.008	0.003877	0.004867
2026-01-16	0.008	0.00406	0.004728
2026-01-23	0.0128	0.004395	0.004633
2026-01-30	0.025	0.005103	0.004636
2026-02-06	0.0188	0.005612	0.004596
2026-02-13	0.0185	0.006137	0.004534
2026-02-20	0.0225	0.006795	0.004505
2026-02-27	0.0302	0.007718	0.004535
2026-03-06	0.0235	0.008418	0.004563
2026-03-13	0.0235	0.009108	0.004628
2026-03-20	0.0288	0.009975	0.004795
2026-03-27	0.0257	0.0107	0.004947
2026-04-03	0.0275	0.0116	0.00511
2026-04-10	0.025	0.0123	0.005259
2026-04-17	0.025	0.013	0.005399
2026-04-24	0.027	0.0138	0.005552
2026-05-01	0.0275	0.0146	0.005709
2026-05-08	0.03	0.0155	0.005884
2026-05-15	0.028	0.0163	0.006036
2026-05-22	0.027	0.0171	0.006189
2026-05-29	0.0275	0.0179	0.006344
2026-06-05	0.025	0.0186	0.006456
2026-06-12	0.025	0.0193	0.006583
2026-06-19	0.0262	0.0201	0.006709
2026-06-26	0.025	0.0207	0.006831
2026-07-03	0.0225	0.0213	0.006942
2026-07-10	0.0212	0.0219	0.007033
2026-07-17	0.02	0.0224	0.007105
2026-07-24	0.0155	0.0226	0.007169
2026-07-31	0.0222	0.0231	0.00727
2026-08-07	0.022	0.0235	0.00737
2026-08-14	0.0245	0.0241	0.007486
2026-08-21	0.027	0.0246	0.007626
2026-08-28	0.0258	0.0246	0.007745
2026-09-04	0.026	0.0248	0.007879
2026-09-11	0.029	0.0252	0.008035
2026-09-18	0.027	0.0253	0.008179
2026-09-25	0.026	0.0252	0.008317
2026-10-02	0.028	0.0253	0.008472

What to watch next

Weekly closing levels

Read these with the wave count, not as automatic trade instructions.

Supports the wave viewBelow GBP 0.0155 -44.6% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would support the selected direction. Check the other readings too.

Changes the wave viewAbove GBP 0.03 7.1% from the latest close

A weekly close beyond this level would break the current directional interpretation.

Earlier confirmed swing GBP 0.03

A separate, confirmed price reference for the wider structure. It is not the current count’s failure level.

Confirmed 2026-05-08

Check the wave count and alternatives ↓

4-week return 7.7%

13-week return 24.4%

26-week return 1.8%

52-week return 833.3%

From 52-week high -30.0%

26-week volatility 83.6%

Scenario playbook

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Start with the price condition. Then check the supporting evidence and the alternative count.

Direction holds

Wait for price confirmation

Below GBP 0.0155

The count needs a weekly close beyond this reference, with supporting price and cycle evidence.

No decision yet

Timing arrives; price does not turn

A projected window can pass without a reversal. Keep the count provisional if price has not confirmed; review the alternative count and the longer cycle.

Count fails

Know what changes the view

Above GBP 0.03

A weekly close beyond this boundary conflicts with the selected count. Review a fresh count instead of extending the old explanation.

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

3 of 3 available degrees share the leading direction. These are different views of the same price series.

Strategic · 24.0% reversalPossible bearish Wave 2 crest

63/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Primary · 16.0% reversalPossible bearish Wave 2 crest

63/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

Tactical · 11.2% reversalPossible bearish Wave 2 crest

63/100 pattern fit · agrees with leading direction

02 · Wave count

How the wave count fits

The chart uses a 16.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Scenario comparison

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestPrimary swing size · Leading33%

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestStrategic swing size33%

Possible bearish Wave 2 crestTactical swing size33%

Weights compare the displayed patterns; they are not probabilities. The same pattern can appear at different swing sizes.

Leading wave count

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

33% evidence weight

The count below meets the required wave rules. The details show which swings and proportions support it. A valid pattern is still an interpretation of past price moves.

Confirm below 0.0155 Fails above 0.03 Count stability High · 84/100

Wave rules and proportions

PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 0.03; Wave 2 0.028.

GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 86% of Wave 1.

Strategic degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 80.6%

10 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 0.0155

Pivot from 2026-07-24

Nearest confirmed resistance 0.03

Pivot from 2026-05-08

30-week trend 0.0253

Price is 10.5% from trend

Fair Value reference 0.008472

Price is 230.5% from Fair Value

52-week range position 68%

0.002 low · 0.04 high

03 · Supporting evidence

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

6 of 7 available readings lean against the downward wave interpretation; 0 support it. The pattern and current market behaviour do not yet agree.

86% directional agreement

The other readings point the other way. 0 readings support the selected direction; 6 lean against it.

Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

10.5% above trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising

Cycle alignment

Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction.

Mixed

Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+46.8

Market activity

Participation is supportive

+22.8

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.5

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+19.1

Balance of readings Constructive

6 constructive, 0 weak and 1 neutral measures.

Agreement describes direction among the readings. It does not necessarily support the selected wave count.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Participation is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

Outperforming its benchmark. This challenges the downward wave view.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Medium-term momentum is positive. This challenges the downward wave view.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Price and volume behaviour is supportive. This challenges the downward wave view.

04 · Cycle timing

What cycle timing adds

Cycle estimates help describe timing. They do not set a date for the next price turn.

Possible turning intervals

The timing map.

Estimated from 2 Oct 2026. Bands show model uncertainty, not confidence intervals or guaranteed turning dates.

Trough window Crest window

Now+48 weeks

10w bandEstimated 8w · Cresting

24/100Repeat fit · 34.5 cycles of history

Trough: 9 Oct–20 Nov 2026 (+1–7w)Crest: 16 Oct–27 Nov 2026 (+2–8w)

20w bandEstimated 15w · Cresting

3/100Repeat fit · 18.4 cycles of history

Trough: 18 Dec–29 Jan 2027 (+11–17w)Crest: 11 Dec–22 Jan 2027 (+10–16w)

40w bandEstimated 30w · Rising

23/100Repeat fit · 9.2 cycles of history

Trough: 22 Jan–30 Apr 2027 (+16–30w)Crest: 6 Nov–12 Feb 2027 (+5–19w)

80w bandEstimated 88w · Rising

69/100Repeat fit · 3.1 cycles of history

Trough: 30 Apr–3 Sep 2027 (+30–48w)Crest: 2 Oct–5 Feb 2027 (+0–18w)

The best nearby repeat is selected from the same sample being described. Its fit is not an out-of-sample forecast score. When fewer than two estimated cycles are available the recent weekly history has gaps, or no positive repeat is measured, timing windows are withheld.

Cycle pressure is rising. That supports the recent upswing, but it does not establish how long it will last.

Cycle repeat scores range from 3 to 69/100. Low scores mean the past rhythm is irregular, so the projected weeks deserve less weight.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Cycle agreementMixed

50/100 rising alignment · 50/100 falling alignment

Estimated next low14 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Estimated next high9 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Shorter and longer cycles

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

An observed cycle is the repeat found in past prices. The repeat score describes how clearly it appears. FLD is a shifted price reference used to check a turn. Low timing scores can coexist with a positive price-cross check.

Typical / observed cycle10w / 8w

Current phaseCresting

Repeat score24/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough4w

Possible next low1–7w

Typical / observed cycle20w / 15w

Current phaseCresting

Repeat score3/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough1w

Possible next low11–17w

Typical / observed cycle40w / 30w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score23/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Down

Since last trough7w

Possible next low16–30w

Typical / observed cycle80w / 88w

Current phaseRising

Repeat score69/100

Price-cross check (FLD)Crossed Up

Since last trough49w

Possible next low30–48w

05 · Risk

Risk behind the price move

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

Risk in context

How much room price has to move

Price is 78.7% below the highest weekly close in the stored history. It is 30.0% below the 52-week high. The two figures use different reference points.

Largest contributors to the risk score

Multi-cycle risk
Hurst risk alignment is 50/100.
Trend extension
Price is 10.5% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.
Count instability
The primary interpretation has high recent stability.

Downside risk check

Contained

17/100

Wave maturity0/25

Trend extension7/20

Range position0/15

Cycle rollover0/15

Multi-cycle risk8/15

Count instability2/10

Event proximity0/10

This score combines the risk checks shown here. A higher score means more warning signs, not a measured probability of a fall.

52-week low0.002

52-week high0.04

Annualised volatility83.6%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range12.3%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-78.7%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume200%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

06 · Market context

Sector trends and upcoming events

Compare the pattern with other stocks in the sector, then check whether an event could change the price picture.

Sector breadth

Most analysed peers have an upward wave count. That contrasts with this report’s downward interpretation.

62% constructive

15 of 24 analysed peers have a leading upward wave pattern.

12% have improving cycles Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Earnings and options

Event information is limited

No additional warning is recorded. Missing event data does not rule out a surprise.

These are the latest stored event readings. Missing earnings or options data does not mean that event risk is absent.

Peer-state horizon	Non-overlapping samples	Positive	Median	Median excess vs ^FTSE	Middle 80% of returns
4 weeks	691	51%	0.7%	0.2%	-10.4% to 14.6%
13 weeks	248	53%	3.3%	0.7%	-18.0% to 33.3%
26 weeks	141	54%	2.2%	0.7%	-21.4% to 57.6%

07 · History

What happened after similar readings

After similar readings, the middle 4-week return was +5.1% across 51 completed outcomes. The range below shows how far individual outcomes differed. Overlapping weeks are not independent tests of this wave count.

52 similar weekly states

Typical return after a match

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

5.1%

13w

0.0%

26w

-10.0%

Horizon	Matches	Positive	Median	Range
4 weeks	51	57%	5.1%	-33.3% to 244.8%
13 weeks	50	46%	0.0%	-47.7% to 566.7%
26 weeks	43	47%	-10.0%	-93.7% to 700.0%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Data quality, rules and limitations

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 100/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 100/100

Elliott impulse rules ↗ · Hurst price confirmation ↗

Model ewc-2.2.0 · as of 2026-10-02 · the last swing is provisional; adaptive thresholds and cycle periods can revise earlier labels between reports.

How the count is built

Rules and data notes

Swing points use weekly closes and a 16.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
These close-based impulse and A/B/C candidates do not exhaustively classify diagonals, triangles or complex corrections. Counts and historical cycle curves can be revised when adaptive thresholds or estimated periods change.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

Dates and prices for the recent swings. The final point can still move. This is the current reconstruction; it is not a saved history of earlier published labels.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2025-10-24	Confirmed	Low	0.003	-29.4%	2 weeks
2025-11-07	Confirmed	High	0.00475	58.3%	2 weeks
2025-11-21	Confirmed	Low	0.0035	-26.3%	2 weeks
2025-12-26	Confirmed	High	0.009	157.1%	5 weeks
2026-01-02	Confirmed	Low	0.00725	-19.4%	1 weeks
2026-01-30	Confirmed	High	0.025	244.8%	4 weeks
2026-02-13	Confirmed	Low	0.0185	-26.0%	2 weeks
2026-02-27	Confirmed	High	0.0302	63.2%	2 weeks
2026-03-13	Confirmed	Low	0.0235	-22.2%	2 weeks
2026-05-08	Confirmed	High	0.03	27.7%	8 weeks
2026-07-24	Confirmed	Low	0.0155	-48.3%	11 weeks
2026-10-02	Forming	High	0.028	80.6%	10 weeks

Follow the evidence

Test the view in related research.

Compare the same market from another angle. Shared price inputs can agree without providing independent confirmation.

AMGOWave & cycle analysis

The wave count points to a decline

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Contained

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

62% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Chart guide

Send a message

Evidence context

The pattern and the prices to watch

Weekly price and wave pattern

What would strengthen—or change—the view?

Wait for price confirmation

Timing arrives; price does not turn

Know what changes the view

Does the interpretation survive a different swing size?

How the wave count fits

Compare the possible patterns

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

Where the evidence agrees or disagrees

Market activity

Relative strength

30-week momentum

Market dynamics

What cycle timing adds

The timing map.

Cycle pressure

Shorter and longer cycles

Risk behind the price move

How much room price has to move

Largest contributors to the risk score

Contained

Drawdown history

Realised volatility

Relative volume

Sector trends and upcoming events

62% constructive

Event information is limited

What happened after similar readings

Typical return after a match

Rules and data notes

Recent swing points

Test the view in related research.

Stage Analysis ↗

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗