SHZ · EQUITY · ENHANCED MARKET DYNAMICS

002946

New Hope Dairy Co., Ltd.

CN · Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

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EMD SCORE43/100

CURRENT COMPLETED-WEEK READ

Balanced

Constructive and cautious evidence are close enough to require confirmation. Conditions are cautious and have weakened over the latest four completed weeks.

Deterioration20% directional agreement74/100 evidence quality6/6 sources available

Completed week: 2 Oct 2026
Latest close: CNY 14.82
Evidence: 156 weeks

Four-week EMD change-0.8 pts

signed chart scale −100 to +100

Four-week price-4.9%

completed closing prices

Current directional run9 weeks

on the same side of EMD zero

Recent consistency1/13

recent readings above zero

COMPLETED-WEEK OVERVIEW

Price and market conditions over time

1 supportive · 2 cautious

Enhanced Market Dynamics and the price cycle156 completed weeks · bars use the left EMD axis; price uses the right axis.

22 Sep 2023–2 Oct 2026

Constructive EMDCautious EMDCompleted-week priceUp-cycle confirmationDown-cycle confirmation

Confirmation markers describe price-zone departures within this saved history. Earlier markers can change as the history changes; they are not a record of signals available in real time.

Cycle position 56%Current EMD -14.04-week EMD change -0.8Full saved history price range CNY 7.87–19.90

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close · CNY	EMD −100 to +100	Score /100	Agreement %	Coverage %
2023-09-22	14.24	-0.64	50	0	83
2023-09-29	13.84	-10.68	45	20	83
2023-10-13	13.74	-9.29	45	20	83
2023-10-20	13.11	-11.5	44	20	100
2023-10-27	13.30	-6.85	47	0	100
2023-11-03	12.65	-28.83	36	60	100
2023-11-10	12.35	-36.84	32	67	100
2023-11-17	12.18	-37.8	31	67	100
2023-11-24	12.35	-31.09	34	60	100
2023-12-01	11.95	-37.32	31	67	100
2023-12-08	11.34	-48.74	26	67	100
2023-12-15	10.94	-46.51	27	67	100
2023-12-22	10.60	-47.74	26	67	100
2023-12-29	11.05	-34.79	33	33	100
2024-01-05	10.79	-45.41	27	67	100
2024-01-12	10.72	-37.84	31	60	100
2024-01-19	10.09	-45.91	27	67	100
2024-01-26	9.90	-37.19	31	33	100
2024-02-02	8.92	-54.12	23	67	100
2024-02-09	9.37	-32.93	34	33	100
2024-02-23	9.74	-36.35	32	33	100
2024-03-01	9.86	-45.12	27	67	100
2024-03-08	9.59	-36.89	32	50	100
2024-03-15	10.06	-27.39	36	20	100
2024-03-22	9.79	-38.5	31	60	100
2024-03-29	9.78	-31.83	34	50	100
2024-04-05	10.27	-18.67	41	20	100
2024-04-12	9.79	-38.12	31	100	100
2024-04-19	9.48	-38.16	31	100	100
2024-04-26	9.51	-34.99	33	100	100
2024-05-03	9.59	-26.0	37	50	100
2024-05-10	10.58	2.59	51	33	100
2024-05-17	10.50	-3.36	48	20	100
2024-05-24	10.10	-9.18	45	0	100
2024-05-31	9.94	-7.2	46	33	100
2024-06-07	9.58	-20.68	40	33	100
2024-06-14	9.60	-17.3	41	20	100
2024-06-21	8.78	-34.8	33	60	100
2024-06-28	8.43	-40.76	30	67	100
2024-07-05	8.14	-43.94	28	67	100
2024-07-12	8.33	-35.32	32	33	100
2024-07-19	8.29	-39.21	30	60	100
2024-07-26	8.00	-48.18	26	100	100
2024-08-02	8.27	-40.83	30	100	100
2024-08-09	8.38	-42.13	29	100	100
2024-08-16	8.13	-49.14	25	100	100
2024-08-23	7.87	-48.11	26	100	100
2024-08-30	8.81	-15.98	42	50	100
2024-09-06	9.12	-0.07	50	0	100
2024-09-13	9.13	-0.67	50	20	100
2024-09-20	9.36	19.49	60	67	100
2024-09-27	11.00	51.58	76	100	100
2024-10-04	12.09	54.05	77	100	100
2024-10-11	11.45	34.26	67	67	100
2024-10-18	10.88	36.28	68	33	100
2024-10-25	11.23	43.74	72	60	100
2024-11-01	12.16	72.17	86	100	100
2024-11-08	13.16	77.38	89	100	100
2024-11-15	12.32	54.6	77	67	100
2024-11-22	12.04	57.73	79	67	100
2024-11-29	12.75	71.4	86	100	100
2024-12-06	13.38	72.27	86	100	100
2024-12-13	15.01	82.83	91	100	100
2024-12-20	14.70	81.32	91	100	100
2024-12-27	14.11	75.45	88	100	100
2025-01-03	14.80	77.88	89	100	100
2025-01-10	15.42	73.39	87	100	100
2025-01-17	14.99	71.19	86	100	100
2025-01-24	14.21	58.11	79	67	100
2025-01-31	14.18	62.52	81	100	100
2025-02-07	13.28	41.45	71	60	100
2025-02-14	13.91	54.88	77	100	100
2025-02-21	13.58	34.31	67	60	100
2025-02-28	14.85	62.28	81	100	100
2025-03-07	14.44	53.62	77	100	100
2025-03-14	15.03	59.37	80	100	100
2025-03-21	14.31	32.33	66	60	100
2025-03-28	14.41	45.23	73	100	100
2025-04-04	14.82	53.95	77	100	100
2025-04-11	16.70	67.73	84	100	100
2025-04-18	15.78	43.89	72	67	100
2025-04-25	17.26	75.75	88	100	100
2025-05-02	16.37	69.2	85	100	100
2025-05-09	17.55	74.87	87	100	100
2025-05-16	17.11	71.04	86	100	100
2025-05-23	17.77	68.79	84	100	100
2025-05-30	18.95	78.2	89	100	100
2025-06-06	18.35	57.71	79	67	100
2025-06-13	19.52	79.41	90	100	100
2025-06-20	17.88	59.67	80	67	100
2025-06-27	18.81	71.62	86	100	100
2025-07-04	18.02	65.21	83	100	100
2025-07-11	16.82	36.93	68	60	100
2025-07-18	16.53	31.1	66	60	100
2025-07-25	16.80	21.67	61	20	100
2025-08-01	16.16	8.68	54	20	100
2025-08-08	17.27	32.65	66	60	100
2025-08-15	17.04	24.58	62	60	100
2025-08-22	17.87	31.9	66	67	100
2025-08-29	19.69	54.99	77	100	100
2025-09-05	18.11	25.17	63	50	100
2025-09-12	17.84	14.29	57	20	100
2025-09-19	17.18	4.35	52	0	100
2025-09-26	16.81	-5.32	47	20	100
2025-10-03	17.00	-3.91	48	0	100
2025-10-10	17.59	3.85	52	20	100
2025-10-17	17.81	13.94	57	33	100
2025-10-24	16.66	-18.73	41	33	100
2025-10-31	17.35	-2.06	49	0	100
2025-11-07	16.63	-24.47	38	60	100
2025-11-14	17.67	-5.26	47	0	100
2025-11-21	17.23	-9.76	45	20	100
2025-11-28	17.29	-11.09	44	20	100
2025-12-05	16.70	-22.1	39	50	100
2025-12-12	17.23	-11.82	44	20	100
2025-12-19	18.90	16.93	58	33	100
2025-12-26	18.77	11.28	56	33	100
2026-01-02	18.46	13.07	57	50	100
2026-01-09	18.63	27.09	64	60	100
2026-01-16	19.01	30.91	65	67	100
2026-01-23	19.19	29.5	65	60	100
2026-01-30	18.19	15.44	58	33	100
2026-02-06	19.50	43.42	72	67	100
2026-02-13	18.50	16.77	58	33	100
2026-02-27	19.05	29.16	65	67	100
2026-03-06	19.90	45.53	73	67	100
2026-03-13	17.91	3.28	52	33	100
2026-03-20	18.71	29.58	65	67	100
2026-03-27	18.04	6.35	53	20	100
2026-04-03	17.80	-2.81	49	20	100
2026-04-10	17.81	-1.05	49	20	100
2026-04-17	17.67	-14.08	43	20	100
2026-04-24	17.89	-13.31	43	50	100
2026-05-01	19.45	17.53	59	33	100
2026-05-08	18.37	-1.23	49	0	100
2026-05-15	17.46	-24.29	38	60	100
2026-05-22	16.33	-34.13	33	67	100
2026-05-29	18.30	-10.77	45	20	100
2026-06-05	16.48	-34.63	33	60	100
2026-06-12	16.60	-30.96	35	60	100
2026-06-19	15.03	-44.44	28	67	100
2026-06-26	13.83	-36.61	32	33	100
2026-07-03	14.64	-43.02	28	60	100
2026-07-10	13.92	-45.85	27	60	100
2026-07-17	15.75	-34.83	33	60	100
2026-07-24	15.43	-30.14	35	20	100
2026-07-31	18.24	5.98	53	60	100
2026-08-07	16.63	-15.27	42	0	100
2026-08-14	15.81	-32.49	34	60	100
2026-08-21	15.58	-26.42	37	60	100
2026-08-28	15.35	-27.14	36	33	100
2026-09-04	15.58	-13.26	43	33	100
2026-09-11	14.47	-43.64	28	67	100
2026-09-18	14.44	-29.42	35	60	100
2026-09-25	14.33	-32.11	34	60	100
2026-10-02	14.82	-14.05	43	20	100

SIX SOURCES · LAST 26 OBSERVATIONS

Is support broadening or thinning?

Green is supportive, rose is cautious.
Grey means the reading is unavailable.

Reading	10 Apr	17 Apr	24 Apr	1 May	8 May	15 May	22 May	29 May	5 Jun	12 Jun	19 Jun	26 Jun	3 Jul	10 Jul	17 Jul	24 Jul	31 Jul	7 Aug	14 Aug	21 Aug	28 Aug	4 Sep	11 Sep	18 Sep	25 Sep	2 Oct
Trend	64	26	30	91	73	19	5	36	6	7	1	0	1	0	4	3	48	15	6	5	4	7	2	2	2	5
Momentum	59	49	55	74	66	49	37	45	32	43	32	25	29	25	53	57	65	62	46	51	26	39	32	40	46	47
Underlying pressure	30	23	22	28	32	33	29	26	21	17	16	11	9	7	8	9	16	26	34	41	38	42	44	44	44	43
Price & volume	48	56	55	70	35	33	36	69	48	53	34	61	49	49	43	45	63	56	35	44	62	83	11	48	30	65
Relative strength	8	5	5	15	5	3	1	7	3	4	1	0	1	1	14	11	71	20	11	12	12	24	11	9	12	28
Modeled Trend	88	87	86	86	84	82	79	76	73	71	69	67	65	63	60	58	58	57	58	58	58	57	57	57	57	57

Each cell is a finished component score from 0–100. Components can disagree even when the combined reading stays positive.

STRONGEST CURRENT SOURCE

Price & volume

65/100

LEAST SUPPORTIVE SOURCE

Trend

5/100

WHAT WOULD CHANGE THE READ?

Three paths to keep in view

Conditional research scenarios.
No assumed price target or timing.

Continuation

Price and evidence stay together

Further price weakness alongside cautious trend, pressure and relative strength would support the current defensive read.

Change of direction

Repair needs follow-through

Improving EMD while price still falls is an early observation. A turn in price and broader agreement would strengthen a repair case.

Cycle context

A range extreme is a location

An upper zone can persist during a strong advance; a lower zone can persist during a decline. Use departures, EMD direction and the related price charts together.

EARLIER COMPARABLE READINGS

What followed similar conditions?

Same ticker · similar score and direction of change.
Returns exclude costs and dividends.

4 WEEKS LATER-0.9%

Median price return · 9 non-overlapping examples

Observed range: -15.1% to +9.3%
Positive returns: 44%
All-period comparison: +1.5% median

13 WEEKS LATER-13.8%

Median price return · 3 non-overlapping examples

Observed range: -17.8% to +11.6%
Positive returns: 33%
All-period comparison: +4.8% median

How these comparisons are selected

Earlier observations must have the same constructive/fading/repair/deterioration condition, a score within ten points of today’s score and at least the same component coverage. The first 30 observations are omitted for warm-up; examples are spaced by the forward horizon to avoid overlap. Gapped return windows are excluded. The all-period comparison uses the same available history and spacing, without matching the current state. These are reconstructed observations, not a point-in-time strategy backtest or a forecast.

RECENT CYCLE HISTORY

How the current reading developed

15 May 2026Down-cycle confirmedCNY 17.46

17 Apr 2026Down-cycle confirmedCNY 17.67

24 Oct 2025Down-cycle confirmedCNY 16.66

8 Nov 2024Upper cycle zone confirmedCNY 13.16

30 Aug 2024Up-cycle confirmedCNY 8.81

10 May 2024Up-cycle confirmedCNY 10.58

19 Apr 2024Lower cycle zone confirmedCNY 9.48

THE FULL PRICE CYCLE

Follow the journey from one zone to the other

Cycle states use trailing completed-week observations.

Lower zone

Price establishes residence near the bottom of its long-cycle range. Improving EMD separates early repair from continued deterioration.

Upward journey

Price leaves the lower zone while EMD confirms improving participation. The objective is the broader move toward the upper zone, not a short weekly trade.

Upper zone

Price establishes residence near the top of its long-cycle range. A high range position can persist. Watch EMD for exhaustion and loss of support before interpreting it as a turn.

Downward journey

Price leaves the upper zone while EMD weakens. The reverse cycle remains active until lower-zone residence is confirmed again.

CURRENT READINGS