NASDAQ · EQUITY · ENHANCED MARKET DYNAMICS

UPST

Upstart Holdings Inc

US · Financial Services · Credit Services

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EMD SCORE31/100

CURRENT COMPLETED-WEEK READ

Cautious

The balance of evidence is weakening and risk control deserves more attention. Conditions are cautious and have weakened over the latest four completed weeks.

Deterioration60% directional agreement87/100 evidence quality6/6 sources available

Completed week: 9 Oct 2026
Latest close: USD 24.10
Evidence: 156 weeks

Four-week EMD change-0.5 pts

signed chart scale −100 to +100

Four-week price-5.8%

completed closing prices

Current directional run55 weeks

on the same side of EMD zero

Recent consistency0/13

recent readings above zero

COMPLETED-WEEK OVERVIEW

Price and market conditions over time

1 supportive · 4 cautious

Enhanced Market Dynamics and the price cycle156 completed weeks · bars use the left EMD axis; price uses the right axis.

20 Oct 2023–9 Oct 2026

Constructive EMDCautious EMDCompleted-week priceUp-cycle confirmationDown-cycle confirmation

Confirmation markers describe price-zone departures within this saved history. Earlier markers can change as the history changes; they are not a record of signals available in real time.

Cycle position 9%Current EMD -38.44-week EMD change -0.5Full saved history price range USD 20.87–84.46

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close · USD	EMD −100 to +100	Score /100	Agreement %	Coverage %
2023-10-20	24.69	-34.04	33	60	83
2023-10-27	23.03	-36.91	32	60	83
2023-11-03	30.32	7.6	54	20	83
2023-11-10	20.87	-44.69	28	60	100
2023-11-17	25.58	-15.5	42	0	100
2023-11-24	23.73	-27.29	36	33	100
2023-12-01	32.37	19.11	60	33	100
2023-12-08	36.92	44.81	72	100	100
2023-12-15	44.52	52.74	76	100	100
2023-12-22	44.16	38.72	69	67	100
2023-12-29	40.86	42.48	71	67	100
2024-01-05	33.24	5.3	53	0	100
2024-01-12	31.95	-8.75	46	20	100
2024-01-19	32.69	2.1	51	20	100
2024-01-26	32.62	-8.96	46	20	100
2024-02-02	32.70	-3.34	48	0	100
2024-02-09	33.90	9.6	55	0	100
2024-02-16	26.19	-30.19	35	60	100
2024-02-23	24.24	-29.87	35	67	100
2024-03-01	26.32	-31.2	34	60	100
2024-03-08	27.34	-33.93	33	60	100
2024-03-15	23.63	-42.49	29	67	100
2024-03-22	26.00	-29.97	35	50	100
2024-03-29	26.89	-34.58	33	60	100
2024-04-05	24.66	-45.08	27	67	100
2024-04-12	23.82	-41.65	29	67	100
2024-04-19	21.87	-48.02	26	67	100
2024-04-26	23.46	-38.7	31	33	100
2024-05-03	24.15	-40.18	30	60	100
2024-05-10	25.40	-29.49	35	50	100
2024-05-17	25.41	-36.34	32	60	100
2024-05-24	23.35	-41.63	29	100	100
2024-05-31	24.72	-31.71	34	100	100
2024-06-07	24.59	-40.86	30	100	100
2024-06-14	22.39	-44.34	28	67	100
2024-06-21	21.64	-39.71	30	67	100
2024-06-28	23.59	-28.28	36	33	100
2024-07-05	23.20	-33.75	33	60	100
2024-07-12	27.11	-4.26	48	20	100
2024-07-19	27.79	-10.28	45	20	100
2024-07-26	26.11	-4.72	48	0	100
2024-08-02	23.76	-18.52	41	20	100
2024-08-09	36.25	62.94	81	100	100
2024-08-16	36.81	54.63	77	100	100
2024-08-23	42.00	78.42	89	100	100
2024-08-30	42.50	63.54	82	67	100
2024-09-06	34.40	51.88	76	67	100
2024-09-13	38.03	75.62	88	100	100
2024-09-20	39.74	73.61	87	100	100
2024-09-27	40.85	70.82	85	100	100
2024-10-04	41.30	79.88	90	100	100
2024-10-11	47.02	83.07	92	100	100
2024-10-18	53.13	78.16	89	100	100
2024-10-25	50.58	68.43	84	67	100
2024-11-01	48.48	67.34	84	67	100
2024-11-08	81.00	92.27	96	100	100
2024-11-15	68.36	64.09	82	67	100
2024-11-22	74.06	83.52	92	100	100
2024-11-29	78.79	79.81	90	100	100
2024-12-06	77.16	76.33	88	100	100
2024-12-13	84.46	81.21	91	100	100
2024-12-20	68.40	57.26	79	67	100
2024-12-27	67.98	63.5	82	100	100
2025-01-03	64.08	62.09	81	100	100
2025-01-10	57.74	45.87	73	67	100
2025-01-17	62.96	52.79	76	100	100
2025-01-24	67.44	48.11	74	60	100
2025-01-31	64.74	45.16	73	60	100
2025-02-07	68.85	46.67	73	67	100
2025-02-14	82.42	60.61	80	100	100
2025-02-21	71.77	39.97	70	60	100
2025-02-28	66.67	40.18	70	60	100
2025-03-07	53.69	9.64	55	20	100
2025-03-14	48.54	-3.51	48	20	100
2025-03-21	51.96	1.1	51	0	100
2025-03-28	47.29	-14.12	43	33	100
2025-04-04	34.80	-39.74	30	67	100
2025-04-11	38.99	-31.84	34	60	100
2025-04-18	40.92	-24.02	38	33	100
2025-04-25	48.68	-5.63	47	20	100
2025-05-02	50.08	-7.05	46	20	100
2025-05-09	47.17	-17.98	41	33	100
2025-05-16	48.08	-29.81	35	60	100
2025-05-23	45.26	-37.42	31	60	100
2025-05-30	47.17	-35.05	32	60	100
2025-06-06	54.33	-5.74	47	33	100
2025-06-13	52.02	-19.98	40	33	100
2025-06-20	58.01	13.76	57	60	100
2025-06-27	63.43	40.41	70	100	100
2025-07-04	73.82	55.46	78	100	100
2025-07-11	75.62	53.38	77	100	100
2025-07-18	78.36	62.45	81	100	100
2025-07-25	83.53	75.98	88	100	100
2025-08-01	79.22	60.82	80	67	100
2025-08-08	68.76	39.45	70	67	100
2025-08-15	64.09	29.31	65	33	100
2025-08-22	68.85	54.97	77	100	100
2025-08-29	73.28	58.08	79	100	100
2025-09-05	66.90	39.92	70	100	100
2025-09-12	63.08	19.52	60	33	100
2025-09-19	67.89	30.8	65	60	100
2025-09-26	57.35	-6.82	47	20	100
2025-10-03	51.96	-19.5	40	67	100
2025-10-10	48.58	-35.27	32	67	100
2025-10-17	46.50	-38.82	31	67	100
2025-10-24	52.69	-26.51	37	33	100
2025-10-31	47.52	-38.7	31	67	100
2025-11-07	38.60	-46.15	27	67	100
2025-11-14	38.72	-39.35	30	60	100
2025-11-21	37.09	-42.25	29	60	100
2025-11-28	44.96	-35.35	32	33	100
2025-12-05	46.75	-28.76	36	20	100
2025-12-12	49.35	-27.98	36	20	100
2025-12-19	47.59	-32.83	34	50	100
2025-12-26	47.47	-37.8	31	60	100
2026-01-02	45.84	-40.54	30	100	100
2026-01-09	49.12	-29.69	35	50	100
2026-01-16	48.12	-21.82	39	20	100
2026-01-23	45.29	-40.11	30	100	100
2026-01-30	39.25	-46.51	27	100	100
2026-02-06	38.24	-33.69	33	60	100
2026-02-13	30.68	-52.58	24	67	100
2026-02-20	29.29	-48.49	26	67	100
2026-02-27	27.23	-48.63	26	67	100
2026-03-06	27.78	-43.89	28	60	100
2026-03-13	26.36	-52.21	24	67	100
2026-03-20	25.98	-51.96	24	67	100
2026-03-27	24.77	-58.43	21	100	100
2026-04-03	25.58	-45.21	27	60	100
2026-04-10	27.26	-47.6	26	100	100
2026-04-17	34.57	-29.38	35	50	100
2026-04-24	33.49	-39.41	30	100	100
2026-05-01	32.74	-24.85	38	20	100
2026-05-08	28.96	-38.97	31	100	100
2026-05-15	29.51	-29.92	35	50	100
2026-05-22	28.56	-34.57	33	100	100
2026-05-29	33.79	-10.97	45	20	100
2026-06-05	29.74	-23.23	38	20	100
2026-06-12	30.50	-16.32	42	0	100
2026-06-19	32.43	-9.47	45	20	100
2026-06-26	33.66	-6.86	47	33	100
2026-07-03	34.78	-0.66	50	20	100
2026-07-10	32.74	-7.14	46	20	100
2026-07-17	29.51	-27.02	36	33	100
2026-07-24	26.93	-35.75	32	60	100
2026-07-31	27.44	-31.48	34	50	100
2026-08-07	31.09	-17.57	41	33	100
2026-08-14	30.43	-10.24	45	0	100
2026-08-21	30.30	-3.48	48	33	100
2026-08-28	29.08	-16.42	42	20	100
2026-09-04	28.05	-23.93	38	50	100
2026-09-11	25.59	-37.84	31	67	100
2026-09-18	25.00	-42.05	29	67	100
2026-09-25	23.81	-48.44	26	67	100
2026-10-02	22.81	-46.34	27	67	100
2026-10-09	24.10	-38.35	31	60	100

SIX SOURCES · LAST 26 OBSERVATIONS

Is support broadening or thinning?

Green is supportive, rose is cautious.
Grey means the reading is unavailable.

Reading	17 Apr	24 Apr	1 May	8 May	15 May	22 May	29 May	5 Jun	12 Jun	19 Jun	26 Jun	3 Jul	10 Jul	17 Jul	24 Jul	31 Jul	7 Aug	14 Aug	21 Aug	28 Aug	4 Sep	11 Sep	18 Sep	25 Sep	2 Oct	9 Oct
Trend	2	2	1	0	0	0	11	1	2	7	18	35	18	3	1	2	27	26	30	19	12	2	1	1	0	1
Momentum	53	54	57	47	32	33	71	62	69	83	70	87	79	33	27	28	54	64	75	55	37	27	23	20	19	28
Underlying pressure	17	25	36	47	50	53	57	58	59	61	62	66	70	66	55	46	46	49	59	61	52	44	35	31	27	25
Price & volume	69	47	56	34	59	55	63	33	46	54	66	50	45	38	37	54	48	56	57	36	49	38	39	25	38	56
Relative strength	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Modeled Trend	56	55	54	55	55	55	56	56	56	58	58	59	60	59	59	60	61	63	65	65	66	64	63	62	63	62

Each cell is a finished component score from 0–100. Components can disagree even when the combined reading stays positive.

STRONGEST CURRENT SOURCE

Modeled Trend

62/100

LEAST SUPPORTIVE SOURCE

Relative strength

0/100

WHAT WOULD CHANGE THE READ?

Three paths to keep in view

Conditional research scenarios.
No assumed price target or timing.

Continuation

Price and evidence stay together

Further price weakness alongside cautious trend, pressure and relative strength would support the current defensive read.

Change of direction

Repair needs follow-through

Improving EMD while price still falls is an early observation. A turn in price and broader agreement would strengthen a repair case.

Cycle context

A range extreme is a location

An upper zone can persist during a strong advance; a lower zone can persist during a decline. Use departures, EMD direction and the related price charts together.

EARLIER COMPARABLE READINGS

What followed similar conditions?

Same ticker · similar score and direction of change.
Returns exclude costs and dividends.

4 WEEKS LATER-5.0%

Median price return · 12 non-overlapping examples

Observed range: -35.3% to +43.9%
Positive returns: 42%
All-period comparison: -4.6% median

13 WEEKS LATER+36.0%

Median price return · 5 non-overlapping examples

Observed range: -44.2% to +112.1%
Positive returns: 60%
All-period comparison: +3.1% median

How these comparisons are selected

Earlier observations must have the same constructive/fading/repair/deterioration condition, a score within ten points of today’s score and at least the same component coverage. The first 30 observations are omitted for warm-up; examples are spaced by the forward horizon to avoid overlap. Gapped return windows are excluded. The all-period comparison uses the same available history and spacing, without matching the current state. These are reconstructed observations, not a point-in-time strategy backtest or a forecast.

RECENT CYCLE HISTORY

How the current reading developed

17 Apr 2026Up-cycle confirmedUSD 34.57

27 Mar 2026Lower cycle zone confirmedUSD 24.77

12 Sep 2025Down-cycle confirmedUSD 63.08

15 Aug 2025Down-cycle confirmedUSD 64.09

7 Mar 2025Down-cycle confirmedUSD 53.69

16 Aug 2024Upper cycle zone confirmedUSD 36.81

12 Jul 2024Up-cycle confirmedUSD 27.11

10 May 2024Up-cycle confirmedUSD 25.40

THE FULL PRICE CYCLE

Follow the journey from one zone to the other

Cycle states use trailing completed-week observations.

Lower zone

Price establishes residence near the bottom of its long-cycle range. Improving EMD separates early repair from continued deterioration.

Upward journey

Price leaves the lower zone while EMD confirms improving participation. The objective is the broader move toward the upper zone, not a short weekly trade.

Upper zone

Price establishes residence near the top of its long-cycle range. A high range position can persist. Watch EMD for exhaustion and loss of support before interpreting it as a turn.

Downward journey

Price leaves the upper zone while EMD weakens. The reverse cycle remains active until lower-zone residence is confirmed again.

CURRENT READINGS