SHH · EQUITY · ENHANCED MARKET DYNAMICS

688126

National Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd.

CN · Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

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EMD SCORE37/100

CURRENT COMPLETED-WEEK READ

Cautious

The balance of evidence is weakening and risk control deserves more attention. Conditions are cautious and have weakened over the latest four completed weeks.

Deterioration67% directional agreement89/100 evidence quality6/6 sources available

Completed week: 9 Oct 2026
Latest close: CNY 21.37
Evidence: 156 weeks

Four-week EMD change-3.5 pts

signed chart scale −100 to +100

Four-week price-3.4%

completed closing prices

Current directional run2 weeks

on the same side of EMD zero

Recent consistency9/13

recent readings above zero

COMPLETED-WEEK OVERVIEW

Price and market conditions over time

1 supportive · 5 cautious

Enhanced Market Dynamics and the price cycle156 completed weeks · bars use the left EMD axis; price uses the right axis.

29 Sep 2023–9 Oct 2026

Constructive EMDCautious EMDCompleted-week priceUp-cycle confirmationDown-cycle confirmation

Confirmation markers describe price-zone departures within this saved history. Earlier markers can change as the history changes; they are not a record of signals available in real time.

Cycle position 68%Current EMD -25.74-week EMD change -3.5Full saved history price range CNY 12.53–36.40

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close · CNY	EMD −100 to +100	Score /100	Agreement %	Coverage %
2023-09-29	19.72	-17.51	41	20	83
2023-10-13	19.39	-27.98	36	60	83
2023-10-20	17.79	-42.93	29	60	83
2023-10-27	18.36	-17.75	41	0	100
2023-11-03	18.32	-27.1	36	33	100
2023-11-10	18.27	-40.61	30	67	100
2023-11-17	18.03	-30.93	35	33	100
2023-11-24	17.51	-40.94	30	67	100
2023-12-01	17.53	-36.41	32	60	100
2023-12-08	17.35	-30.12	35	33	100
2023-12-15	17.20	-34.82	33	60	100
2023-12-22	16.89	-38.44	31	67	100
2023-12-29	17.27	-24.56	38	20	100
2024-01-05	16.76	-42.61	29	67	100
2024-01-12	15.81	-49.52	25	67	100
2024-01-19	15.48	-43.31	28	60	100
2024-01-26	15.61	-35.92	32	33	100
2024-02-02	13.41	-54.29	23	67	100
2024-02-09	14.84	-30.61	35	33	100
2024-02-23	15.10	-32.92	34	33	100
2024-03-01	15.60	-28.29	36	33	100
2024-03-08	15.05	-34.0	33	33	100
2024-03-15	14.80	-41.78	29	67	100
2024-03-22	13.99	-46.52	27	67	100
2024-03-29	13.21	-46.32	27	67	100
2024-04-05	13.49	-42.93	29	60	100
2024-04-12	12.74	-51.04	24	67	100
2024-04-19	12.67	-44.51	28	60	100
2024-04-26	12.97	-36.31	32	60	100
2024-05-03	13.23	-43.89	28	100	100
2024-05-10	13.48	-31.59	34	50	100
2024-05-17	13.21	-35.76	32	100	100
2024-05-24	12.53	-46.29	27	100	100
2024-05-31	13.49	-23.06	38	33	100
2024-06-07	13.79	-26.19	37	50	100
2024-06-14	14.89	-2.56	49	33	100
2024-06-21	14.92	5.55	53	33	100
2024-06-28	13.77	-15.38	42	0	100
2024-07-05	13.75	-12.5	44	20	100
2024-07-12	14.92	10.22	55	33	100
2024-07-19	15.07	11.08	56	50	100
2024-07-26	14.93	16.46	58	50	100
2024-08-02	15.50	34.3	67	100	100
2024-08-09	14.76	10.46	55	20	100
2024-08-16	15.26	41.2	71	100	100
2024-08-23	15.02	37.51	69	100	100
2024-08-30	14.69	19.42	60	20	100
2024-09-06	14.13	12.25	56	20	100
2024-09-13	13.65	2.76	51	0	100
2024-09-20	13.67	-6.03	47	20	100
2024-09-27	15.82	39.95	70	100	100
2024-10-04	18.98	64.22	82	100	100
2024-10-11	21.49	49.53	75	67	100
2024-10-18	22.73	86.24	93	100	100
2024-10-25	24.24	65.68	83	67	100
2024-11-01	21.77	53.81	77	67	100
2024-11-08	23.11	77.34	89	100	100
2024-11-15	22.06	47.39	74	67	100
2024-11-22	21.38	52.87	76	67	100
2024-11-29	21.57	71.91	86	100	100
2024-12-06	22.08	69.57	85	100	100
2024-12-13	21.38	53.54	77	67	100
2024-12-20	20.49	51.36	76	67	100
2024-12-27	19.45	39.37	70	67	100
2025-01-03	18.45	25.87	63	50	100
2025-01-10	18.35	14.95	57	0	100
2025-01-17	19.40	27.88	64	33	100
2025-01-24	18.05	7.52	54	0	100
2025-01-31	17.83	-1.66	49	20	100
2025-02-07	18.35	4.64	52	20	100
2025-02-14	18.25	-4.43	48	20	100
2025-02-21	20.56	47.1	74	67	100
2025-02-28	20.56	45.6	73	60	83
2025-03-07	20.56	44.36	72	60	83
2025-03-14	19.23	23.83	62	100	100
2025-03-21	19.14	10.59	55	20	100
2025-03-28	18.21	-12.37	44	60	100
2025-04-04	18.52	-3.59	48	0	100
2025-04-11	18.86	10.3	55	33	100
2025-04-18	18.07	-13.32	43	50	100
2025-04-25	17.53	-17.71	41	50	100
2025-05-02	17.43	-18.55	41	50	100
2025-05-09	17.90	-20.77	40	50	100
2025-05-16	17.50	-29.52	35	60	100
2025-05-23	18.07	-21.41	39	50	100
2025-05-30	18.52	-10.54	45	0	100
2025-06-06	18.05	-28.18	36	60	100
2025-06-13	18.55	-9.24	45	0	100
2025-06-20	17.95	-28.09	36	60	100
2025-06-27	18.49	-11.83	44	20	100
2025-07-04	18.27	-20.35	40	60	100
2025-07-11	18.87	-1.71	49	0	100
2025-07-18	18.99	4.65	52	33	100
2025-07-25	19.40	14.95	57	60	100
2025-08-01	18.47	-5.16	47	0	100
2025-08-08	18.57	-1.39	49	20	100
2025-08-15	19.00	9.08	55	33	100
2025-08-22	20.85	39.14	70	67	100
2025-08-29	20.74	29.26	65	33	100
2025-09-05	20.52	28.11	64	33	100
2025-09-12	21.12	50.81	75	67	100
2025-09-19	21.06	27.55	64	33	100
2025-09-26	25.22	82.31	91	100	100
2025-10-03	25.80	76.6	88	100	100
2025-10-10	25.95	61.77	81	67	100
2025-10-17	24.65	56.22	78	67	100
2025-10-24	24.29	60.17	80	100	100
2025-10-31	22.86	36.76	68	60	100
2025-11-07	23.28	49.9	75	100	100
2025-11-14	21.81	21.61	61	33	100
2025-11-21	20.82	10.01	55	0	100
2025-11-28	21.19	13.41	57	0	100
2025-12-05	21.68	12.27	56	0	100
2025-12-12	21.08	5.37	53	0	100
2025-12-19	20.51	2.16	51	20	100
2025-12-26	21.71	11.55	56	0	100
2026-01-02	21.64	7.74	54	0	100
2026-01-09	23.63	29.26	65	60	100
2026-01-16	23.13	30.18	65	60	100
2026-01-23	23.38	36.64	68	100	100
2026-01-30	22.41	15.23	58	33	100
2026-02-06	20.82	-5.92	47	50	100
2026-02-13	20.58	-19.05	40	67	100
2026-02-27	21.72	-6.77	47	50	100
2026-03-06	19.57	-32.76	34	67	100
2026-03-13	19.34	-30.15	35	60	100
2026-03-20	18.22	-38.39	31	67	100
2026-03-27	17.59	-38.47	31	60	100
2026-04-03	16.61	-45.71	27	67	100
2026-04-10	17.72	-35.55	32	33	100
2026-04-17	18.13	-33.36	33	33	100
2026-04-24	20.80	-8.73	46	0	100
2026-05-01	20.61	-17.19	41	20	100
2026-05-08	22.99	20.41	60	67	100
2026-05-15	24.07	26.62	63	67	100
2026-05-22	27.81	53.42	77	100	100
2026-05-29	27.70	55.21	78	67	100
2026-06-05	28.49	69.65	85	100	100
2026-06-12	29.59	60.04	80	67	100
2026-06-19	32.20	84.36	92	100	100
2026-06-26	34.86	76.98	88	100	100
2026-07-03	34.53	65.08	83	67	100
2026-07-10	36.40	65.58	83	67	100
2026-07-17	26.66	54.02	77	67	100
2026-07-24	25.82	55.11	78	100	100
2026-07-31	23.48	24.31	62	60	100
2026-08-07	26.65	49.27	75	100	100
2026-08-14	25.90	43.25	72	100	100
2026-08-21	24.63	20.7	60	50	100
2026-08-28	24.51	17.82	59	33	100
2026-09-04	22.59	-17.24	41	60	100
2026-09-11	22.12	-22.14	39	67	100
2026-09-18	24.41	11.7	56	0	100
2026-09-25	24.80	3.37	52	20	100
2026-10-02	23.38	-8.85	46	20	100
2026-10-09	21.37	-25.67	37	67	100

SIX SOURCES · LAST 26 OBSERVATIONS

Is support broadening or thinning?

Green is supportive, rose is cautious.
Grey means the reading is unavailable.

Reading	17 Apr	24 Apr	1 May	8 May	15 May	22 May	29 May	5 Jun	12 Jun	19 Jun	26 Jun	3 Jul	10 Jul	17 Jul	24 Jul	31 Jul	7 Aug	14 Aug	21 Aug	28 Aug	4 Sep	11 Sep	18 Sep	25 Sep	2 Oct	9 Oct
Trend	1	19	19	57	63	65	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	97	92	59	95	90	73	70	9	6	31	35	13	2
Momentum	38	61	60	71	81	88	88	92	93	94	96	97	97	64	60	55	56	63	46	60	32	30	43	45	48	35
Underlying pressure	10	14	22	44	74	89	95	96	95	95	94	94	94	89	81	67	52	44	39	36	32	31	31	32	32	30
Price & volume	58	78	47	75	27	52	29	46	30	81	56	38	37	43	50	42	62	55	51	44	44	42	90	42	35	42
Relative strength	6	29	24	59	79	98	98	99	100	100	100	100	100	98	94	70	93	88	75	68	37	33	69	75	58	28
Modeled Trend	64	62	61	61	64	68	72	77	80	83	85	87	88	89	89	89	89	89	89	88	87	86	85	83	80	78

Each cell is a finished component score from 0–100. Components can disagree even when the combined reading stays positive.

STRONGEST CURRENT SOURCE

Modeled Trend

78/100

LEAST SUPPORTIVE SOURCE

Trend

2/100

WHAT WOULD CHANGE THE READ?

Three paths to keep in view

Conditional research scenarios.
No assumed price target or timing.

Continuation

Price and evidence stay together

Further price weakness alongside cautious trend, pressure and relative strength would support the current defensive read.

Change of direction

Repair needs follow-through

Improving EMD while price still falls is an early observation. A turn in price and broader agreement would strengthen a repair case.

Cycle context

A range extreme is a location

An upper zone can persist during a strong advance; a lower zone can persist during a decline. Use departures, EMD direction and the related price charts together.

EARLIER COMPARABLE READINGS

What followed similar conditions?

Same ticker · similar score and direction of change.
Returns exclude costs and dividends.

4 WEEKS LATER+4.6%

Median price return · 8 non-overlapping examples

Observed range: -3.7% to +66.3%
Positive returns: 75%
All-period comparison: -1.5% median

13 WEEKS LATER+36.4%

Median price return · 5 non-overlapping examples

Observed range: +1.5% to +98.2%
Positive returns: 100%
All-period comparison: +3.7% median

How these comparisons are selected

Earlier observations must have the same constructive/fading/repair/deterioration condition, a score within ten points of today’s score and at least the same component coverage. The first 30 observations are omitted for warm-up; examples are spaced by the forward horizon to avoid overlap. Gapped return windows are excluded. The all-period comparison uses the same available history and spacing, without matching the current state. These are reconstructed observations, not a point-in-time strategy backtest or a forecast.

RECENT CYCLE HISTORY

How the current reading developed

9 Oct 2026Down-cycle confirmedCNY 21.37

11 Sep 2026Down-cycle confirmedCNY 22.12

6 Feb 2026Down-cycle confirmedCNY 20.82

19 Dec 2025Down-cycle confirmedCNY 20.51

21 Mar 2025Down-cycle confirmedCNY 19.14

3 Jan 2025Down-cycle confirmedCNY 18.45

4 Oct 2024Upper cycle zone confirmedCNY 18.98

31 May 2024Up-cycle confirmedCNY 13.49

THE FULL PRICE CYCLE

Follow the journey from one zone to the other

Cycle states use trailing completed-week observations.

Lower zone

Price establishes residence near the bottom of its long-cycle range. Improving EMD separates early repair from continued deterioration.

Upward journey

Price leaves the lower zone while EMD confirms improving participation. The objective is the broader move toward the upper zone, not a short weekly trade.

Upper zone

Price establishes residence near the top of its long-cycle range. A high range position can persist. Watch EMD for exhaustion and loss of support before interpreting it as a turn.

Downward journey

Price leaves the upper zone while EMD weakens. The reverse cycle remains active until lower-zone residence is confirmed again.

CURRENT READINGS