SHZ · EQUITY · ENHANCED MARKET DYNAMICS

200017

Shenzhen China Bicycle Company (Holdings) Limited

CN · Consumer Cyclical · Leisure

Open Chart Terminal

EMD SCORE60/100

CURRENT COMPLETED-WEEK READ

Constructive

The balance of evidence is supportive, with some confirmation still incomplete. Conditions are positive and have strengthened over the latest four completed weeks.

Constructive build60% directional agreement87/100 evidence quality6/6 sources available

Completed week: 2 Oct 2026
Latest close: HKD 1.60
Evidence: 156 weeks

Four-week EMD change+29.8 pts

signed chart scale −100 to +100

Four-week price+4.6%

completed closing prices

Current directional run4 weeks

on the same side of EMD zero

Recent consistency5/13

recent readings above zero

COMPLETED-WEEK OVERVIEW

Price and market conditions over time

4 supportive · 1 cautious

Enhanced Market Dynamics and the price cycle156 completed weeks · bars use the left EMD axis; price uses the right axis.

22 Sep 2023–2 Oct 2026

Constructive EMDCautious EMDCompleted-week priceUp-cycle confirmationDown-cycle confirmation

Confirmation markers describe price-zone departures within this saved history. Earlier markers can change as the history changes; they are not a record of signals available in real time.

Cycle position 55%Current EMD +19.74-week EMD change +29.8Full saved history price range HKD 0.92–2.06

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close · HKD	EMD −100 to +100	Score /100	Agreement %	Coverage %
2023-09-22	0.98	-16.76	42	0	83
2023-09-29	0.99	-14.0	43	0	83
2023-10-13	0.95	-23.32	38	33	83
2023-10-20	0.92	-15.81	42	0	100
2023-10-27	0.93	-21.76	39	33	100
2023-11-03	0.92	-33.74	33	60	100
2023-11-10	0.94	-14.39	43	20	100
2023-11-17	0.94	-15.91	42	0	100
2023-11-24	1.02	11.21	56	20	100
2023-12-01	1.00	4.1	52	33	100
2023-12-08	1.00	10.38	55	60	100
2023-12-15	1.01	20.16	60	67	100
2023-12-22	1.00	11.8	56	50	100
2023-12-29	1.02	24.02	62	67	100
2024-01-05	0.99	8.7	54	20	100
2024-01-12	1.21	65.92	83	100	100
2024-01-19	1.20	68.5	84	100	100
2024-01-26	1.36	73.43	87	100	100
2024-02-02	1.33	76.07	88	100	100
2024-02-09	1.40	76.1	88	100	100
2024-02-23	1.88	88.87	94	100	100
2024-03-01	2.05	79.84	90	100	100
2024-03-08	1.93	78.12	89	100	100
2024-03-15	1.95	78.08	89	100	100
2024-03-22	2.04	77.22	89	100	100
2024-03-29	1.98	59.9	80	67	100
2024-04-05	2.02	73.65	87	100	100
2024-04-12	2.06	74.59	87	100	100
2024-04-19	1.82	64.09	82	100	100
2024-04-26	1.77	60.41	80	100	100
2024-05-03	1.67	54.86	77	100	100
2024-05-10	1.69	51.17	76	100	100
2024-05-17	1.64	47.79	74	100	100
2024-05-24	1.75	45.63	73	67	100
2024-05-31	1.88	49.03	75	67	100
2024-06-07	1.97	66.49	83	100	100
2024-06-14	1.83	45.55	73	60	100
2024-06-21	1.81	49.5	75	100	100
2024-06-28	1.74	31.33	66	20	100
2024-07-05	1.81	34.48	67	33	100
2024-07-12	1.69	17.43	59	0	100
2024-07-19	1.62	12.84	56	20	100
2024-07-26	1.53	-0.18	50	20	100
2024-08-02	1.58	1.88	51	20	100
2024-08-09	1.58	1.05	51	0	100
2024-08-16	1.60	2.83	51	20	100
2024-08-23	1.59	2.88	51	20	100
2024-08-30	1.64	6.6	53	33	100
2024-09-06	1.62	-2.76	49	20	100
2024-09-13	1.63	-0.5	50	0	100
2024-09-20	1.62	-0.66	50	0	100
2024-09-27	1.77	21.68	61	33	100
2024-10-04	1.90	31.35	66	67	100
2024-10-11	1.88	23.51	62	60	100
2024-10-18	1.89	51.11	76	100	100
2024-10-25	1.91	48.59	74	100	100
2024-11-01	1.94	33.57	67	67	100
2024-11-08	1.99	62.53	81	100	100
2024-11-15	1.87	32.09	66	60	100
2024-11-22	1.84	39.83	70	100	100
2024-11-29	1.85	30.74	65	60	100
2024-12-06	1.91	34.37	67	67	100
2024-12-13	1.88	29.84	65	60	100
2024-12-20	1.82	18.95	59	60	100
2024-12-27	1.68	-4.24	48	0	100
2025-01-03	1.71	-1.33	49	20	100
2025-01-10	1.72	-14.69	43	67	100
2025-01-17	1.66	-19.56	40	33	100
2025-01-24	1.65	-21.79	39	50	100
2025-01-31	1.64	-25.05	37	60	100
2025-02-07	1.66	-25.31	37	60	100
2025-02-14	1.64	-24.39	38	50	100
2025-02-21	1.66	-18.91	41	20	100
2025-02-28	1.60	-35.86	32	67	100
2025-03-07	1.61	-34.62	33	67	100
2025-03-14	1.62	-37.65	31	67	100
2025-03-21	1.56	-40.87	30	67	100
2025-03-28	1.48	-40.83	30	60	100
2025-04-04	1.49	-41.29	29	60	100
2025-04-11	1.32	-40.24	30	33	100
2025-04-18	1.33	-38.27	31	33	100
2025-04-25	1.37	-37.92	31	33	100
2025-05-02	1.32	-47.93	26	60	100
2025-05-09	1.30	-50.87	25	67	100
2025-05-16	1.31	-36.35	32	33	100
2025-05-23	1.29	-47.54	26	60	100
2025-05-30	1.29	-44.18	28	60	100
2025-06-06	1.31	-46.15	27	67	100
2025-06-13	1.32	-40.31	30	60	100
2025-06-20	1.27	-46.6	27	67	100
2025-06-27	1.30	-31.98	34	33	100
2025-07-04	1.32	-24.24	38	33	100
2025-07-11	1.31	-28.48	36	50	100
2025-07-18	1.34	-12.11	44	20	100
2025-07-25	1.33	-21.45	39	20	100
2025-08-01	1.36	-12.35	44	33	100
2025-08-08	1.43	-0.22	50	33	100
2025-08-15	1.51	14.31	57	60	100
2025-08-22	1.67	34.76	67	67	100
2025-08-29	1.53	4.12	52	20	100
2025-09-05	1.55	20.77	60	67	100
2025-09-12	1.71	38.52	69	67	100
2025-09-19	1.61	23.49	62	33	100
2025-09-26	1.57	24.6	62	33	100
2025-10-03	1.64	33.95	67	60	100
2025-10-10	1.66	31.36	66	60	100
2025-10-17	1.65	29.73	65	33	100
2025-10-24	1.72	45.73	73	67	100
2025-10-31	1.76	45.46	73	67	100
2025-11-07	1.74	40.26	70	60	100
2025-11-14	1.79	48.36	74	67	100
2025-11-21	2.00	75.03	88	100	100
2025-11-28	1.85	49.58	75	67	100
2025-12-05	1.82	53.49	77	100	100
2025-12-12	1.83	40.26	70	60	100
2025-12-19	1.87	53.65	77	100	100
2025-12-26	1.87	50.27	75	100	100
2026-01-02	1.82	42.16	71	100	100
2026-01-09	1.84	29.66	65	33	100
2026-01-16	1.82	27.39	64	60	100
2026-01-23	1.87	31.12	66	60	100
2026-01-30	1.84	18.43	59	20	100
2026-02-06	1.84	32.69	66	100	100
2026-02-13	1.86	32.48	66	100	100
2026-02-27	1.88	20.86	60	20	100
2026-03-06	1.86	23.75	62	50	100
2026-03-13	1.83	12.61	56	0	100
2026-03-20	1.77	3.13	52	20	100
2026-03-27	1.76	6.69	53	20	100
2026-04-03	1.74	-7.17	46	33	100
2026-04-10	1.74	-12.64	44	50	100
2026-04-17	1.78	-6.13	47	0	100
2026-04-24	1.80	-5.21	47	20	100
2026-05-01	1.83	-1.64	49	0	100
2026-05-08	1.82	-7.64	46	20	100
2026-05-15	1.72	-27.78	36	60	100
2026-05-22	1.48	-51.1	24	67	100
2026-05-29	1.34	-51.39	24	67	100
2026-06-05	1.40	-41.12	29	60	100
2026-06-12	1.39	-42.52	29	60	100
2026-06-19	1.42	-41.13	29	60	100
2026-06-26	1.28	-37.36	31	33	100
2026-07-03	1.41	-37.96	31	50	100
2026-07-10	1.41	-36.64	32	50	100
2026-07-17	1.34	-44.92	28	60	100
2026-07-24	1.45	-31.42	34	50	100
2026-07-31	1.46	-37.37	31	60	100
2026-08-07	1.47	-33.21	33	50	100
2026-08-14	1.44	-32.89	34	60	100
2026-08-21	1.57	-1.39	49	0	100
2026-08-28	1.70	14.44	57	60	100
2026-09-04	1.53	-10.15	45	0	100
2026-09-11	1.56	5.82	53	20	100
2026-09-18	1.58	10.16	55	33	100
2026-09-25	1.61	18.53	59	60	100
2026-10-02	1.60	19.69	60	60	100

SIX SOURCES · LAST 26 OBSERVATIONS

Is support broadening or thinning?

Green is supportive, rose is cautious.
Grey means the reading is unavailable.

Reading	10 Apr	17 Apr	24 Apr	1 May	8 May	15 May	22 May	29 May	5 Jun	12 Jun	19 Jun	26 Jun	3 Jul	10 Jul	17 Jul	24 Jul	31 Jul	7 Aug	14 Aug	21 Aug	28 Aug	4 Sep	11 Sep	18 Sep	25 Sep	2 Oct
Trend	23	31	34	39	35	14	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	2	3	4	3	19	50	14	22	29	39	39
Momentum	50	59	64	67	67	50	30	27	27	27	38	35	45	45	30	55	44	46	52	69	85	68	76	65	62	73
Underlying pressure	19	18	19	23	26	25	21	15	10	8	7	6	7	8	9	12	16	20	28	40	56	68	76	78	76	75
Price & volume	53	60	55	56	44	30	1	13	50	50	47	57	52	56	47	54	41	50	44	86	43	19	50	65	67	50
Relative strength	25	21	24	26	18	9	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	2	3	9	13	7	6	22	56	28	36	38	55	66
Modeled Trend	87	86	84	82	80	79	77	75	72	70	67	64	62	61	59	58	58	57	57	58	59	60	62	62	63	64

Each cell is a finished component score from 0–100. Components can disagree even when the combined reading stays positive.

STRONGEST CURRENT SOURCE

Underlying pressure

75/100

LEAST SUPPORTIVE SOURCE

Trend

39/100

WHAT WOULD CHANGE THE READ?

Three paths to keep in view

Conditional research scenarios.
No assumed price target or timing.

Continuation

Price and evidence stay together

Look for the current direction to hold across trend, pressure and relative strength. A rising price with weaker EMD is a less convincing continuation.

Change of direction

Watch for loss of support

If price keeps rising while EMD falls, inspect which readings are weakening. Broad deterioration matters more than a single soft week.

Cycle context

A range extreme is a location

An upper zone can persist during a strong advance; a lower zone can persist during a decline. Use departures, EMD direction and the related price charts together.

EARLIER COMPARABLE READINGS

What followed similar conditions?

Same ticker · similar score and direction of change.
Returns exclude costs and dividends.

4 WEEKS LATER+1.9%

Median price return · 7 non-overlapping examples

Observed range: -5.3% to +13.2%
Positive returns: 57%
All-period comparison: +0.3% median

13 WEEKS LATER

Too few comparisons

2 non-overlapping examples. At least three are needed to display a summary.

How these comparisons are selected

Earlier observations must have the same constructive/fading/repair/deterioration condition, a score within ten points of today’s score and at least the same component coverage. The first 30 observations are omitted for warm-up; examples are spaced by the forward horizon to avoid overlap. Gapped return windows are excluded. The all-period comparison uses the same available history and spacing, without matching the current state. These are reconstructed observations, not a point-in-time strategy backtest or a forecast.

RECENT CYCLE HISTORY

How the current reading developed

13 Mar 2026Down-cycle confirmedHKD 1.83

16 Jan 2026Down-cycle confirmedHKD 1.82

21 Nov 2025Upper cycle zone confirmedHKD 2.00

27 Jun 2025Up-cycle confirmedHKD 1.30

30 May 2025Lower cycle zone confirmedHKD 1.29

15 Nov 2024Down-cycle confirmedHKD 1.87

19 Apr 2024Down-cycle confirmedHKD 1.82

29 Mar 2024Upper cycle zone confirmedHKD 1.98

THE FULL PRICE CYCLE

Follow the journey from one zone to the other

Cycle states use trailing completed-week observations.

Lower zone

Price establishes residence near the bottom of its long-cycle range. Improving EMD separates early repair from continued deterioration.

Upward journey

Price leaves the lower zone while EMD confirms improving participation. The objective is the broader move toward the upper zone, not a short weekly trade.

Upper zone

Price establishes residence near the top of its long-cycle range. A high range position can persist. Watch EMD for exhaustion and loss of support before interpreting it as a turn.

Downward journey

Price leaves the upper zone while EMD weakens. The reverse cycle remains active until lower-zone residence is confirmed again.

CURRENT READINGS