SAO · EQUITY · ENHANCED MARKET DYNAMICS

C2HD34

Churchill Downs Incorporated

BR · Consumer Cyclical · Gambling

Open Chart Terminal

EMD SCORE31/100

CURRENT COMPLETED-WEEK READ

Cautious

The balance of evidence is weakening and risk control deserves more attention. Conditions remain cautious, although the latest readings are improving.

Early repair100% directional agreement89/100 evidence quality5/6 sources available

Completed week: 25 Sep 2026
Latest close: BRL 21.12
Evidence: 156 weeks

Four-week EMD change+11.0 pts

signed chart scale −100 to +100

Four-week price+0.0%

completed closing prices

Current directional run35 weeks

on the same side of EMD zero

Recent consistency0/13

recent readings above zero

COMPLETED-WEEK OVERVIEW

Price and market conditions over time

0 supportive · 3 cautious

Enhanced Market Dynamics and the price cycle156 completed weeks · bars use the left EMD axis; price uses the right axis.

6 Oct 2023–25 Sep 2026

Constructive EMDCautious EMDCompleted-week priceUp-cycle confirmationDown-cycle confirmation

Confirmation markers describe price-zone departures within this saved history. Earlier markers can change as the history changes; they are not a record of signals available in real time.

Cycle position 9%Current EMD -38.44-week EMD change +11.0Full saved history price range BRL 21.12–40.00

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close · BRL	EMD −100 to +100	Score /100	Agreement %	Coverage %
2023-10-06	33.08	0.51	50	0	67
2023-10-13	33.08	-2.28	49	0	67
2023-10-20	33.08	-0.26	50	0	67
2023-10-27	33.08	-0.48	50	0	83
2023-11-03	33.08	-5.39	47	33	83
2023-11-10	33.08	-8.85	46	50	83
2023-11-17	29.55	-39.37	30	67	100
2023-11-24	29.35	-42.51	29	67	100
2023-12-01	29.41	-47.48	26	60	83
2023-12-08	28.16	-43.71	28	60	100
2023-12-15	29.75	-32.44	34	50	100
2023-12-22	29.75	-38.81	31	50	83
2023-12-29	29.75	-38.7	31	50	83
2024-01-05	29.75	-38.48	31	50	83
2024-01-12	29.75	-42.37	29	60	83
2024-01-19	29.75	-41.26	29	60	83
2024-01-26	29.82	-36.11	32	60	100
2024-02-02	29.82	-36.78	32	50	83
2024-02-09	29.82	-40.75	30	100	83
2024-02-16	29.82	-35.08	32	100	83
2024-02-23	29.82	-32.09	34	100	83
2024-03-01	29.82	-23.43	38	33	83
2024-03-08	27.90	-31.05	34	60	100
2024-03-15	28.12	-19.49	40	33	100
2024-03-22	28.12	-38.11	31	60	83
2024-03-29	28.12	-41.15	29	60	83
2024-04-05	28.12	-37.0	31	50	83
2024-04-12	28.12	-38.1	31	50	83
2024-04-19	28.12	-37.0	32	50	83
2024-04-26	28.12	-36.38	32	50	83
2024-05-03	28.12	-35.46	32	50	83
2024-05-10	28.12	-33.7	33	50	83
2024-05-17	28.12	-37.03	31	100	83
2024-05-24	28.12	-32.24	34	100	83
2024-05-31	28.12	-23.01	38	50	83
2024-06-07	28.12	-16.53	42	50	83
2024-06-14	36.38	50.45	75	100	100
2024-06-21	36.38	73.9	87	100	83
2024-06-28	37.91	79.18	90	100	83
2024-07-05	37.91	81.57	91	100	83
2024-07-12	37.91	77.76	89	100	83
2024-07-19	37.91	79.05	90	100	83
2024-07-26	37.91	76.92	88	100	83
2024-08-02	37.91	77.93	89	100	83
2024-08-09	37.35	53.84	77	67	100
2024-08-16	37.35	73.72	87	100	83
2024-08-23	37.97	67.62	84	100	100
2024-08-30	37.97	75.45	88	100	83
2024-09-06	37.97	76.98	88	100	83
2024-09-13	37.97	71.04	86	100	83
2024-09-20	37.97	70.12	85	100	83
2024-09-27	37.97	65.82	83	100	83
2024-10-04	37.97	62.94	81	100	83
2024-10-11	39.08	62.71	81	100	100
2024-10-18	40.00	75.99	88	100	100
2024-10-25	39.39	37.53	69	67	100
2024-11-01	39.39	70.48	85	100	83
2024-11-08	39.39	68.09	84	100	83
2024-11-15	39.39	64.59	82	100	83
2024-11-22	39.39	63.35	82	100	83
2024-11-29	39.39	62.77	81	100	83
2024-12-06	39.48	61.45	81	100	83
2024-12-13	39.48	59.18	80	100	83
2024-12-20	39.48	56.28	78	100	83
2024-12-27	39.48	53.02	77	100	83
2025-01-03	39.48	43.8	72	60	83
2025-01-10	39.48	40.99	70	60	83
2025-01-17	39.48	37.61	69	60	83
2025-01-24	39.48	36.35	68	60	83
2025-01-31	39.48	33.6	67	60	83
2025-02-07	39.48	32.88	66	60	83
2025-02-14	34.70	-24.06	38	67	100
2025-02-21	34.70	-23.32	38	60	83
2025-02-28	33.12	-26.14	37	60	100
2025-03-07	33.12	-36.27	32	60	83
2025-03-14	33.12	-38.18	31	60	83
2025-03-21	33.12	-41.7	29	60	83
2025-03-28	33.12	-39.21	30	50	83
2025-04-04	33.12	-37.96	31	50	83
2025-04-11	33.12	-40.85	30	60	83
2025-04-18	33.12	-43.25	28	60	83
2025-04-25	33.12	-52.32	24	100	83
2025-05-02	33.12	-52.48	24	100	83
2025-05-09	33.12	-51.96	24	100	83
2025-05-16	33.12	-47.96	26	100	83
2025-05-23	33.12	-45.47	27	100	83
2025-05-30	33.12	-41.36	29	100	83
2025-06-06	26.69	-54.59	23	100	100
2025-06-13	26.69	-59.39	20	100	83
2025-06-20	26.83	-49.65	25	100	100
2025-06-27	26.83	-63.15	18	100	83
2025-07-04	26.83	-57.21	21	100	83
2025-07-11	26.83	-57.44	21	100	83
2025-07-18	26.83	-58.02	21	100	83
2025-07-25	26.83	-57.84	21	100	83
2025-08-01	26.83	-57.19	21	100	83
2025-08-08	26.83	-56.16	22	100	83
2025-08-15	27.70	-29.48	35	50	100
2025-08-22	28.40	-25.25	37	50	100
2025-08-29	28.09	-9.79	45	0	100
2025-09-05	28.09	-18.86	41	0	83
2025-09-12	28.09	-18.69	41	0	83
2025-09-19	28.09	-20.49	40	20	83
2025-09-26	28.09	-18.94	41	20	83
2025-10-03	28.09	-17.74	41	20	83
2025-10-10	25.18	-28.1	36	50	100
2025-10-17	23.29	-49.26	25	67	100
2025-10-24	23.29	-44.08	28	60	83
2025-10-31	23.29	-48.03	26	60	83
2025-11-07	23.29	-47.89	26	60	83
2025-11-14	26.09	-22.82	39	20	100
2025-11-21	27.20	-12.15	44	0	100
2025-11-28	29.07	6.99	53	20	100
2025-12-05	29.48	10.08	55	67	100
2025-12-12	29.48	8.54	54	60	83
2025-12-19	29.48	11.25	56	60	83
2025-12-26	29.48	21.83	61	60	83
2026-01-02	31.38	28.32	64	60	100
2026-01-09	29.62	16.77	58	33	100
2026-01-16	28.43	9.4	55	33	100
2026-01-23	28.35	9.66	55	33	100
2026-01-30	25.28	-2.97	49	20	100
2026-02-06	24.27	-24.98	38	50	100
2026-02-13	23.35	-33.6	33	67	100
2026-02-20	23.35	-40.1	30	60	83
2026-02-27	23.35	-42.3	29	60	83
2026-03-06	23.35	-42.64	29	60	83
2026-03-13	23.22	-34.79	33	50	100
2026-03-20	22.60	-39.14	30	60	100
2026-03-27	22.60	-48.03	26	60	83
2026-04-03	23.10	-39.3	30	60	100
2026-04-10	23.10	-47.88	26	60	83
2026-04-17	23.14	-43.43	28	67	100
2026-04-24	23.88	-15.73	42	20	100
2026-05-01	23.88	-41.41	29	100	83
2026-05-08	24.00	-30.53	35	50	83
2026-05-15	24.00	-26.3	37	50	83
2026-05-22	24.00	-21.37	39	0	83
2026-05-29	22.56	-34.34	33	60	100
2026-06-05	22.08	-35.13	32	50	83
2026-06-12	22.08	-37.99	31	60	83
2026-06-19	22.08	-38.69	31	60	83
2026-06-26	22.08	-41.39	29	100	83
2026-07-03	22.08	-41.12	29	100	83
2026-07-10	22.23	-40.15	30	100	83
2026-07-17	22.23	-39.27	30	100	83
2026-07-24	22.23	-39.46	30	100	83
2026-07-31	22.23	-39.33	30	100	83
2026-08-07	21.12	-48.12	26	100	83
2026-08-14	21.12	-48.41	26	100	83
2026-08-21	21.12	-49.75	25	100	83
2026-08-28	21.12	-49.42	25	100	83
2026-09-04	21.12	-45.74	27	100	83
2026-09-11	21.12	-44.31	28	100	83
2026-09-18	21.12	-41.84	29	100	83
2026-09-25	21.12	-38.45	31	100	83

SIX SOURCES · LAST 26 OBSERVATIONS

Is support broadening or thinning?

Green is supportive, rose is cautious.
Grey means the reading is unavailable.

Reading	3 Apr	10 Apr	17 Apr	24 Apr	1 May	8 May	15 May	22 May	29 May	5 Jun	12 Jun	19 Jun	26 Jun	3 Jul	10 Jul	17 Jul	24 Jul	31 Jul	7 Aug	14 Aug	21 Aug	28 Aug	4 Sep	11 Sep	18 Sep	25 Sep
Trend	3	4	5	10	11	13	12	12	4	2	3	3	4	4	6	8	9	12	6	7	8	10	10	11	12	13
Momentum	36	37	43	49	53	58	61	57	43	39	40	42	51	53	54	53	50	50	37	36	36	39	48	48	48	48
Underlying pressure	14	15	17	22	26	33	41	46	48	46	41	35	34	32	32	31	32	31	29	25	22	20	21	24	28	35
Price & volume	52	—	33	100	—	—	—	—	30	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Relative strength	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	3	3	3	4	3	3	3	4	5	4	4	6	5	4	2	2	3	4
Modeled Trend	62	59	58	57	56	56	56	57	57	58	57	57	56	55	55	55	55	54	55	55	54	54	54	54	54	54

Each cell is a finished component score from 0–100. Components can disagree even when the combined reading stays positive.

STRONGEST CURRENT SOURCE

Modeled Trend

54/100

LEAST SUPPORTIVE SOURCE

Relative strength

4/100

WHAT WOULD CHANGE THE READ?

Three paths to keep in view

Conditional research scenarios.
No assumed price target or timing.

Continuation

Price and evidence stay together

Further price weakness alongside cautious trend, pressure and relative strength would support the current defensive read.

Change of direction

Repair needs follow-through

Improving EMD while price still falls is an early observation. A turn in price and broader agreement would strengthen a repair case.

Cycle context

A range extreme is a location

An upper zone can persist during a strong advance; a lower zone can persist during a decline. Use departures, EMD direction and the related price charts together.

EARLIER COMPARABLE READINGS

What followed similar conditions?

Same ticker · similar score and direction of change.
Returns exclude costs and dividends.

4 WEEKS LATER+0.0%

Median price return · 11 non-overlapping examples

Observed range: -19.0% to +34.8%
Positive returns: 36%
All-period comparison: +0.0% median

13 WEEKS LATER-3.3%

Median price return · 4 non-overlapping examples

Observed range: -14.2% to +34.8%
Positive returns: 25%
All-period comparison: -5.5% median

How these comparisons are selected

Earlier observations must have the same constructive/fading/repair/deterioration condition, a score within ten points of today’s score and at least the same component coverage. The first 30 observations are omitted for warm-up; examples are spaced by the forward horizon to avoid overlap. Gapped return windows are excluded. The all-period comparison uses the same available history and spacing, without matching the current state. These are reconstructed observations, not a point-in-time strategy backtest or a forecast.

RECENT CYCLE HISTORY

How the current reading developed

28 Nov 2025Up-cycle confirmedBRL 29.07

22 Aug 2025Up-cycle confirmedBRL 28.40

6 Jun 2025Lower cycle zone confirmedBRL 26.69

14 Feb 2025Down-cycle confirmedBRL 34.70

21 Jun 2024Upper cycle zone confirmedBRL 36.38

14 Jun 2024Up-cycle confirmedBRL 36.38

29 Mar 2024Lower cycle zone confirmedBRL 28.12

THE FULL PRICE CYCLE

Follow the journey from one zone to the other

Cycle states use trailing completed-week observations.

Lower zone

Price establishes residence near the bottom of its long-cycle range. Improving EMD separates early repair from continued deterioration.

Upward journey

Price leaves the lower zone while EMD confirms improving participation. The objective is the broader move toward the upper zone, not a short weekly trade.

Upper zone

Price establishes residence near the top of its long-cycle range. A high range position can persist. Watch EMD for exhaustion and loss of support before interpreting it as a turn.

Downward journey

Price leaves the upper zone while EMD weakens. The reverse cycle remains active until lower-zone residence is confirmed again.

CURRENT READINGS