NYSE · EQUITY · ENHANCED MARKET DYNAMICS

VEL

Velocity Financial Llc

US · Financial Services · Mortgage Finance

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EMD SCORE30/100

CURRENT COMPLETED-WEEK READ

Cautious

The balance of evidence is weakening and risk control deserves more attention. Conditions are cautious and have weakened over the latest four completed weeks.

Deterioration60% directional agreement87/100 evidence quality6/6 sources available

Completed week: 9 Oct 2026
Latest close: USD 14.73
Evidence: 156 weeks

Four-week EMD change-34.6 pts

signed chart scale −100 to +100

Four-week price-18.0%

completed closing prices

Current directional run5 weeks

on the same side of EMD zero

Recent consistency2/13

recent readings above zero

COMPLETED-WEEK OVERVIEW

Price and market conditions over time

1 supportive · 4 cautious

Enhanced Market Dynamics and the price cycle156 completed weeks · bars use the left EMD axis; price uses the right axis.

20 Oct 2023–9 Oct 2026

Constructive EMDCautious EMDCompleted-week priceUp-cycle confirmationDown-cycle confirmation

Confirmation markers describe price-zone departures within this saved history. Earlier markers can change as the history changes; they are not a record of signals available in real time.

Cycle position 8%Current EMD -40.24-week EMD change -34.6Full saved history price range USD 10.99–20.63

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close · USD	EMD −100 to +100	Score /100	Agreement %	Coverage %
2023-10-20	10.99	11.08	56	20	83
2023-10-27	11.40	25.68	63	50	83
2023-11-03	12.86	43.07	72	60	83
2023-11-10	14.43	43.32	72	67	100
2023-11-17	14.72	51.07	76	67	100
2023-11-24	14.41	64.99	82	100	100
2023-12-01	14.65	66.85	83	100	100
2023-12-08	14.70	65.83	83	100	100
2023-12-15	15.85	70.74	85	100	100
2023-12-22	15.99	71.57	86	100	100
2023-12-29	17.22	84.57	92	100	100
2024-01-05	15.43	59.45	80	67	100
2024-01-12	16.02	71.27	86	100	100
2024-01-19	15.87	68.42	84	100	100
2024-01-26	15.99	60.94	80	100	100
2024-02-02	15.49	51.94	76	67	100
2024-02-09	15.82	58.44	79	100	100
2024-02-16	15.94	53.4	77	100	100
2024-02-23	16.17	55.26	78	100	100
2024-03-01	16.22	54.99	77	100	100
2024-03-08	16.73	59.55	80	100	100
2024-03-15	17.30	65.38	83	100	100
2024-03-22	18.00	62.43	81	100	100
2024-03-29	18.00	65.35	83	100	100
2024-04-05	16.82	45.44	73	67	100
2024-04-12	16.48	49.48	75	100	100
2024-04-19	16.63	51.39	76	100	100
2024-04-26	17.01	49.65	75	100	100
2024-05-03	17.33	54.48	77	100	100
2024-05-10	18.37	66.53	83	100	100
2024-05-17	17.88	58.19	79	100	100
2024-05-24	18.19	65.99	83	100	100
2024-05-31	18.50	68.06	84	100	100
2024-06-07	18.49	49.56	75	67	100
2024-06-14	18.56	60.8	80	100	100
2024-06-21	18.31	41.65	71	67	100
2024-06-28	17.93	31.6	66	67	100
2024-07-05	18.31	43.64	72	100	100
2024-07-12	18.94	50.17	75	100	100
2024-07-19	18.99	52.35	76	100	100
2024-07-26	19.07	58.94	79	100	100
2024-08-02	18.63	60.13	80	100	100
2024-08-09	18.33	47.87	74	100	100
2024-08-16	18.00	17.16	59	50	100
2024-08-23	18.37	29.78	65	60	100
2024-08-30	18.77	40.24	70	67	100
2024-09-06	19.26	42.55	71	67	100
2024-09-13	19.52	52.66	76	100	100
2024-09-20	19.56	33.4	67	67	100
2024-09-27	19.55	40.26	70	67	100
2024-10-04	19.53	48.05	74	100	100
2024-10-11	19.35	35.83	68	100	100
2024-10-18	19.59	34.74	67	100	100
2024-10-25	19.22	30.44	65	100	100
2024-11-01	19.05	13.88	57	20	100
2024-11-08	19.82	31.38	66	60	100
2024-11-15	19.95	25.98	63	50	100
2024-11-22	20.37	48.2	74	100	100
2024-11-29	20.46	47.97	74	100	100
2024-12-06	20.63	48.9	74	100	100
2024-12-13	20.51	39.64	70	60	100
2024-12-20	20.23	31.21	66	60	100
2024-12-27	19.70	27.87	64	60	100
2025-01-03	19.11	5.81	53	0	100
2025-01-10	18.71	-0.75	50	20	100
2025-01-17	18.93	-8.66	46	20	100
2025-01-24	18.41	-23.25	38	60	100
2025-01-31	18.54	-19.19	40	60	100
2025-02-07	18.62	-11.05	44	20	100
2025-02-14	18.56	-14.76	43	20	100
2025-02-21	18.46	-18.77	41	50	100
2025-02-28	18.84	-9.15	45	20	100
2025-03-07	20.48	19.45	60	60	100
2025-03-14	19.30	-7.38	46	0	100
2025-03-21	18.80	-16.69	42	50	100
2025-03-28	18.55	-2.06	49	33	100
2025-04-04	17.95	-11.89	44	33	100
2025-04-11	16.79	-34.11	33	67	100
2025-04-18	17.44	-17.52	41	33	100
2025-04-25	17.77	-18.15	41	20	100
2025-05-02	17.12	-33.29	33	60	100
2025-05-09	16.30	-41.06	29	67	100
2025-05-16	16.67	-35.28	32	60	100
2025-05-23	16.48	-40.06	30	60	100
2025-05-30	16.75	-31.68	34	33	100
2025-06-06	17.10	-19.61	40	20	100
2025-06-13	19.22	6.31	53	20	100
2025-06-20	18.61	-5.82	47	20	100
2025-06-27	18.81	6.18	53	33	100
2025-07-04	18.64	4.21	52	20	100
2025-07-11	18.05	-8.43	46	20	100
2025-07-18	17.46	-15.67	42	20	100
2025-07-25	17.50	-16.87	42	20	100
2025-08-01	16.35	-30.79	35	60	100
2025-08-08	17.58	-11.7	44	20	100
2025-08-15	18.98	10.99	55	50	100
2025-08-22	19.19	16.74	58	60	100
2025-08-29	19.08	17.56	59	50	100
2025-09-05	19.14	22.84	61	60	100
2025-09-12	18.72	7.73	54	33	100
2025-09-19	18.48	20.05	60	60	100
2025-09-26	18.49	11.73	56	20	100
2025-10-03	18.02	5.07	53	20	100
2025-10-10	18.17	11.95	56	60	100
2025-10-17	17.96	3.15	52	20	100
2025-10-24	18.73	18.3	59	60	100
2025-10-31	18.62	17.58	59	50	100
2025-11-07	18.91	21.21	61	60	100
2025-11-14	18.36	13.65	57	60	100
2025-11-21	18.35	9.29	55	33	100
2025-11-28	19.33	24.66	62	60	100
2025-12-05	18.85	8.17	54	20	100
2025-12-12	19.59	31.93	66	67	100
2025-12-19	19.53	28.25	64	33	100
2025-12-26	19.52	30.79	65	60	100
2026-01-02	19.54	25.65	63	33	100
2026-01-09	18.62	16.2	58	33	100
2026-01-16	19.45	36.39	68	67	100
2026-01-23	19.39	28.01	64	60	100
2026-01-30	20.29	44.21	72	100	100
2026-02-06	20.49	56.0	78	100	100
2026-02-13	19.76	32.62	66	33	100
2026-02-20	19.02	19.38	60	33	100
2026-02-27	18.59	6.2	53	20	100
2026-03-06	17.99	-12.98	44	50	100
2026-03-13	17.41	-31.15	34	67	100
2026-03-20	17.26	-28.49	36	67	100
2026-03-27	17.81	-12.0	44	20	100
2026-04-03	18.24	-7.92	46	0	100
2026-04-10	19.14	4.94	52	0	100
2026-04-17	19.90	8.51	54	20	100
2026-04-24	19.47	2.59	51	0	100
2026-05-01	19.42	2.17	51	0	100
2026-05-08	18.24	-22.26	39	60	100
2026-05-15	16.97	-35.13	32	67	100
2026-05-22	17.17	-34.96	33	60	100
2026-05-29	17.50	-34.6	33	60	100
2026-06-05	17.46	-25.98	37	20	100
2026-06-12	17.56	-18.65	41	0	100
2026-06-19	17.54	-23.35	38	20	100
2026-06-26	18.22	-5.02	47	0	100
2026-07-03	18.57	-5.2	47	0	100
2026-07-10	17.27	-31.48	34	60	100
2026-07-17	17.50	-22.96	39	50	100
2026-07-24	17.41	-26.71	37	60	100
2026-07-31	17.54	-32.56	34	67	100
2026-08-07	18.46	-5.28	47	0	100
2026-08-14	18.16	-13.39	43	20	100
2026-08-21	18.34	0.32	50	33	100
2026-08-28	18.01	-5.1	47	0	100
2026-09-04	18.43	4.87	52	33	100
2026-09-11	17.97	-5.57	47	0	100
2026-09-18	16.00	-28.45	36	33	100
2026-09-25	15.35	-41.83	29	60	100
2026-10-02	14.59	-44.49	28	67	100
2026-10-09	14.73	-40.21	30	60	100

SIX SOURCES · LAST 26 OBSERVATIONS

Is support broadening or thinning?

Green is supportive, rose is cautious.
Grey means the reading is unavailable.

Reading	17 Apr	24 Apr	1 May	8 May	15 May	22 May	29 May	5 Jun	12 Jun	19 Jun	26 Jun	3 Jul	10 Jul	17 Jul	24 Jul	31 Jul	7 Aug	14 Aug	21 Aug	28 Aug	4 Sep	11 Sep	18 Sep	25 Sep	2 Oct	9 Oct
Trend	52	45	43	19	5	6	10	10	11	11	23	31	10	13	13	16	35	29	34	28	39	30	4	2	1	1
Momentum	75	69	62	40	29	33	37	46	62	61	65	67	45	46	40	39	67	67	70	63	61	57	35	30	26	29
Underlying pressure	30	43	54	52	40	27	20	18	20	23	32	41	39	39	31	25	35	47	61	72	76	73	62	46	31	21
Price & volume	62	50	50	35	38	45	49	56	60	46	80	60	31	51	54	41	67	33	59	40	63	41	28	15	31	49
Relative strength	42	33	30	11	4	5	5	7	8	8	18	18	6	10	10	10	13	11	15	12	17	14	3	2	1	1
Modeled Trend	72	71	70	69	68	66	62	62	61	60	61	62	62	62	62	61	62	62	62	64	63	62	63	63	63	64

Each cell is a finished component score from 0–100. Components can disagree even when the combined reading stays positive.

STRONGEST CURRENT SOURCE

Modeled Trend

64/100

LEAST SUPPORTIVE SOURCE

Trend

1/100

WHAT WOULD CHANGE THE READ?

Three paths to keep in view

Conditional research scenarios.
No assumed price target or timing.

Continuation

Price and evidence stay together

Further price weakness alongside cautious trend, pressure and relative strength would support the current defensive read.

Change of direction

Repair needs follow-through

Improving EMD while price still falls is an early observation. A turn in price and broader agreement would strengthen a repair case.

Cycle context

A range extreme is a location

An upper zone can persist during a strong advance; a lower zone can persist during a decline. Use departures, EMD direction and the related price charts together.

EARLIER COMPARABLE READINGS

What followed similar conditions?

Same ticker · similar score and direction of change.
Returns exclude costs and dividends.

4 WEEKS LATER+5.6%

Median price return · 8 non-overlapping examples

Observed range: -4.3% to +16.7%
Positive returns: 75%
All-period comparison: -0.2% median

13 WEEKS LATER-3.5%

Median price return · 5 non-overlapping examples

Observed range: -14.7% to +13.9%
Positive returns: 40%
All-period comparison: +0.7% median

How these comparisons are selected

Earlier observations must have the same constructive/fading/repair/deterioration condition, a score within ten points of today’s score and at least the same component coverage. The first 30 observations are omitted for warm-up; examples are spaced by the forward horizon to avoid overlap. Gapped return windows are excluded. The all-period comparison uses the same available history and spacing, without matching the current state. These are reconstructed observations, not a point-in-time strategy backtest or a forecast.

RECENT CYCLE HISTORY

How the current reading developed

25 Sep 2026Lower cycle zone confirmedUSD 15.35

8 May 2026Down-cycle confirmedUSD 18.24

20 Feb 2026Down-cycle confirmedUSD 19.02

9 Jan 2026Down-cycle confirmedUSD 18.62

4 Apr 2025Down-cycle confirmedUSD 17.95

3 Jan 2025Down-cycle confirmedUSD 19.11

16 Aug 2024Down-cycle confirmedUSD 18.00

28 Jun 2024Down-cycle confirmedUSD 17.93

THE FULL PRICE CYCLE

Follow the journey from one zone to the other

Cycle states use trailing completed-week observations.

Lower zone

Price establishes residence near the bottom of its long-cycle range. Improving EMD separates early repair from continued deterioration.

Upward journey

Price leaves the lower zone while EMD confirms improving participation. The objective is the broader move toward the upper zone, not a short weekly trade.

Upper zone

Price establishes residence near the top of its long-cycle range. A high range position can persist. Watch EMD for exhaustion and loss of support before interpreting it as a turn.

Downward journey

Price leaves the upper zone while EMD weakens. The reverse cycle remains active until lower-zone residence is confirmed again.

CURRENT READINGS