HWM: Not rated
Published 16 Sep 2026, 07:00 BST. This is the frozen version, not the current recommendation.
Why this assessment was issued
The model version changed. Current data checks do not support an active rating. The published model version has been replaced. Record the new calculation basis even if the rating is unchanged.
A target is not published until the required checks pass. Conflicting dated amounts need reconciliation before a target can be published: net ppe.
Supporting evidence
Year-to-date profit has improved
Across 2 completed quarters since 2025-12-31, net income was 1,114.0m versus 751.0m in the matching prior-year periods (USD). Check whether the latest quarter changes that direction.
Borrowing is lower relative to earnings
Net debt / EBITDA: 1.4× for HWM, against 1.8× across 12 comparable peers.
Opposing evidence
Capital spending changes the cash picture
Operating cash covers 1.19 times profit, but cash after capital spending covers 0.96 times. Cash generation is stronger before the investment bill is paid.
Less cash remains for each dollar of profit
Cash after capital spending / profit: 1.0× for HWM, against 1.1× across 11 comparable peers.
Original assumptions and checks
| eps | 4.55 |
|---|---|
| cash | 563000000.0 |
| debt | 4510000000.0 |
| years | 1.212867898699521 |
| growth | 16.876175346279553 |
| margin | 20.52210156849841 |
| profit | 1871000000.0 |
| cash_ok | True |
| debt_ok | True |
| growths | [13.84196185286104, 14.648334214701219, 19.10401647785789, 24.06234778373113] |
| revenue | 9117000000.0 |
| downside | 45.764591201426356 |
| leverage | 1.410650464617584 |
| multiple | 49.59851301115241 |
| free_cash | 1791000000.0 |
| buy_hurdle | 16.47163264914713 |
| volatility | 32.94326529829426 |
| history_end | 2026-09-11 |
| reward_risk | 0.0 |
| annual_years | 5 |
| usable_weeks | 157 |
| history_start | 2023-09-15 |
| history_weeks | 157 |
| financial_date | 2026-06-30 |
| interest_cover | 14.851190476190476 |
| operating_cash | 2221000000.0 |
| uncapped_growth | 16.876175346279553 |
| current_multiple | 50.463736263736266 |
| projected_margin | 16.021592952923903 |
| historical_margin | 11.521084337349398 |
Recent price · Passed. Weekly close dated 2026-09-11.
Suitable business model · Passed. Value operating cash flow or comparable earnings; deduct debt and other ownership claims where appropriate.
Four quarters · Passed. Four quarters ending 2026-06-30.
Current financials · Passed. Statements through 2026-06-30; factor prices dated 2026-09-11.
Annual record · Passed. 5 consecutive annual profit margins, including loss years.
Comparable earnings history · Passed. P/E is usable in 157 of 157 weeks. At least 52 usable weeks and 70% coverage are required; excluding too many loss or missing weeks would bias the target.
Earnings and price dates · Passed. Earnings-release EPS $4.55, for four quarters ending 2026-06-30.
Price risk · Passed. Risk uses the latest 52 weekly price changes.
Comparable sales growth · Passed. Growth uses the median of four quarterly year-on-year comparisons.
Positive statement earnings · Passed. Trailing statement profit is positive.
Earnings reconciliation · Passed. Release EPS is $4.55; statement-derived EPS is $4.69. The difference is within the 5% review threshold; this does not prove there are no unusual items.
Statement totals · Passed. The latest four quarters agree with the trailing snapshot within 5%.
Cash and borrowing · Passed. Cash generation, debt and interest-cover figures are available.
Ownership source reconciliation · Review needed. Conflicting dated amounts need reconciliation before a target can be published: net ppe.
Policy sm-review-2-research · Model sm-assessment-13-assumption-review · Data 5649a3b2f2a8.