NATL: Hold + Reduce with a $40.35 price target

Year-to-date profit has improved, but capital spending changes the cash picture.

Target for 2027-09-16: $40.35 USD, -13.5% versus the $46.62 weekly close on 2026-09-11. Price return only; dividends, fees and tax excluded.

Over 1 year (2025-09-12 to 2026-09-11), price changed +20.3% and trailing EPS changed +24.6%. A wider gap changes the earnings multiple; it does not establish fair value.

Across 2 completed quarters since 2025-12-31, net income was 87.0m versus 53.0m in the matching prior-year periods (USD). Check whether the latest quarter changes that direction.

Over one year, the stock changed +20.3% against -30.7% for Technology (XLK). The gap is +51.1 percentage points. These are price returns, before dividends.

Operating cash covers 1.41 times profit, but cash after capital spending covers 0.80 times. Cash generation is stronger before the investment bill is paid.

Debt less cash was 2,507.0m at 2026-06-30. Operating profit covered interest 2.0 times.

Watch whether cash after capital spending closes the gap with profit. It currently covers 0.80 times profit over four quarters.

Compare the next results with the trailing margin of 11.5% and the annual-history median of 7.0%. A historical median is context, not a forecast.

Recheck the valuation gap alongside profitability and growth after new results. A discount alone does not establish value.

Starting annual sales growth: 4.22%.

Long-term operating margin: 8.57%.

Review recorded on 2026-09-16. This is a dated summary of an automated company valuation. The full report includes the financial evidence, alternative scenarios and review history. Consult the latest report before using an earlier target. Automated model research, not personal investment advice. Targets depend on assumptions; returns are not guaranteed.