Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
BHP options intelligence
BHP Group Limited options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
51
Market data through 12 Aug 2026
Checked 12 Aug 2026 19:30 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
BHP currently carries bullish options pressure with a 51/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.11.
Expected move
5.1%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.11
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.22
Call-side skew
Trend fit
34
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+7.0%
RS 18.6
Expected move
5.1%
Put-call volume
0.22
Volume / OI
0.11
Reference IV
0.42
Max pain
85.00
Underlying
90.41
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
467
Research Brief
BHP has a bullish chain read with 51/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 85.76–95.06; The largest call open-interest concentration is 90.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 52.50.
Priced range85.76–95.06
Call concentration90.00
Put concentration80.00
Max pain reference85.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 85.76 to 95.06. Max pain at 85.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
85.7690.41 ± 4.6595.06
Confirmation level
A close beyond 95.06 or below 85.76 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 51/100
Pressure is 65/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure65 × 42%
+27.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation43 × 22%
+9.4
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement34 × 26%
+8.7
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility50 × 10%
+5.0
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 90.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 52.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
624
55.00-39.2%
47
230
60.00-33.6%
72
591
62.50-30.9%
30
461
65.00-28.1%
260
503
67.50-25.3%
74
853
70.00-22.6%
115
650
72.50-19.8%
0
1369
75.00-17.0%
317
1795
77.50-14.3%
171
2855
80.00-11.5%
904
1439
82.50-8.7%
449
1399
85.00-6.0%
814
788
87.50-3.2%
977
518
90.00-0.5%
2555
300
92.502.3%
662
18
95.005.1%
911
1
100.0010.6%
1280
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$6.1MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak95.00+$4.4M
Negative peak77.50-$4.1M
Nearest balance84.00Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
60.00-33.6%
+$157,429
62.50-30.9%
+$3,948
65.00-28.1%
-$18,951
67.50-25.3%
+$110,171
70.00-22.6%
+$300,324
72.50-19.8%
-$157,213
75.00-17.0%
+$188,607
77.50-14.3%
-$4.1M
80.00-11.5%
+$363,062
82.50-8.7%
-$510,197
85.00-6.0%
+$341,050
87.50-3.2%
+$180,983
90.00-0.5%
+$1.6M
92.502.3%
+$707,356
95.005.1%
+$4.4M
97.507.8%
+$573,121
100.0010.6%
+$1.1M
105.0016.1%
+$305,884
110.0021.7%
+$508,508
115.0027.2%
+$97,956
120.0032.7%
+$47,674
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.42
21 Aug
9d
0.39
18 Sep
37d
0.35
20 Nov
100d
0.40
18 Dec
128d
0.36
15 Jan
156d
0.37
19 Feb
191d
0.30
19 Mar
219d
0.36
17 Jun
309d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
73
75
78
80
83
85
88
90
93
95
98
100
105
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 12 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 467 / 467
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $65.7M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+65
1W price+7.0%
Call premium99%
Put premium1%
Notional split
C 99% / P 1%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.11
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
34/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
18 Aug
Matched earnings event is 5 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 9751 contracts traded, $42.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 64% of visible notional.
$42.3M
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 5452 contracts traded, $21.8M estimated gross traded notional, and 33% of visible notional.
$21.8M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 1011 contracts traded, $386,055 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$386,055
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 1351 contracts traded, $349,940 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$349,940
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 165 contracts traded, $284,614 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$284,614
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 11 completed sessions
Volume rank55th
Volume/OI rank55th
IV rank55th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close90.41
1W+7.0%
RS18.6
Fair value+59.7%
Options pressure65
Speculation43
Volatility50
Trend fit34
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 7.5% · 11 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.42 · 11 sessions
55th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.74 · 11 sessions
9th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.11 · 11 sessions
55th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
5 Aug 08:47
Bullish
Pressure 53
Move 8.3%
5 Aug 14:40
Bullish
Pressure 48
Move 8.5%
5 Aug 16:10
Bullish
Pressure 55
Move 8.6%
5 Aug 17:30
Bullish
Pressure 56
Move 8.5%
5 Aug 19:00
Bullish
Pressure 54
Move 8.6%
5 Aug 22:01
Bullish
Pressure 52
Move 8.5%
6 Aug 02:14
Mixed
Pressure 1
Move 8.5%
6 Aug 14:30
Bullish
Pressure 41
Move 8.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike37.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 18 · OI 28
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 5
Strike42.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 4 · OI 4
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 2
Strike47.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike50.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 5
Puts · V 2 · OI 21
Strike52.50
Calls · V 35 · OI 0
Puts · V 22 · OI 147
Strike55.00
Calls · V 20 · OI 47
Puts · V 1 · OI 624
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.42
Put-call0.77
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts66
Avg IV0.39
Put-call0.34
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts47
Avg IV0.35
Put-call2.90
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.40
Put-call1.49
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts69
Avg IV0.36
Put-call0.04
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.43
Skew0.02
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.40
Skew0.07
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.39
Skew0.04
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.38
Skew0.02
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.37
Skew0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractBHP270617P00045000
SidePut
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike45.00
Volume-
OI500
IV0.50
ContractBHP261218P00120000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike120.00
Volume-
OI50
IV0.47
ContractBHP261218P00110000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike110.00
Volume-
OI50
IV0.42
ContractBHP260918P00097500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike97.50
Volume-
OI50
IV0.49
ContractBHP261218P00047500
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike47.50
Volume-
OI41
IV0.86
ContractBHP260918C00135000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike135.00
Volume-
OI38
IV0.55
ContractBHP261218P00095000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike95.00
Volume-
OI36
IV0.63
ContractBHP261120P00045000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike45.00
Volume-
OI31
IV0.67
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.