Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
DUG options intelligence
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT ENERGY options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
60
Market data through 16 Sep 2026
Checked 17 Sep 2026 13:05 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
DUG currently carries bullish options pressure with a 60/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.51.
Expected move
4.9%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.51
Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.00
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-3.0%
RS -45.9
Expected move
4.9%
Put-call volume
-
Volume / OI
0.51
Reference IV
0.66
Max pain
16.00
Underlying
14.11
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
178
Research Brief
DUG has a bullish chain read with 60/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 13.42–14.80; The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 16.00. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00.
Priced range13.42–14.80
Call concentration15.00
Put concentration16.00
Max pain reference16.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 13.42 to 14.80. Max pain at 16.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
13.4214.11 ± 0.6914.80
Confirmation level
A close beyond 14.80 or below 13.42 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 60/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation52 × 22%
+11.4
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility65 × 10%
+6.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 16.00. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
9.00-36.2%
0
0
10.00-29.1%
0
0
11.00-22.0%
0
0
12.00-15.0%
0
0
13.00-7.9%
0
0
14.00-0.8%
0
1
15.006.3%
10
100
16.0013.4%
0
10
17.0020.5%
10
0
18.0027.6%
3
0
19.0034.7%
0
0
20.0041.7%
0
0
21.0048.8%
0
0
22.0055.9%
0
0
23.0063.0%
0
0
24.0070.1%
0
0
25.0077.2%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$15,264Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak15.00+$6,494
Negative peak20.00-$411
Nearest balance13.00Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
13.00-7.9%
-$22
14.00-0.8%
+$4,775
15.006.3%
+$6,494
16.0013.4%
+$1,272
17.0020.5%
+$1,440
18.0027.6%
+$754
19.0034.7%
+$261
20.0041.7%
-$411
21.0048.8%
+$274
22.0055.9%
+$108
23.0063.0%
+$2
24.0070.1%
+$2
25.0077.2%
+$10
26.0084.3%
-$49
28.0098.4%
+$59
29.00105.5%
-$6
30.00112.6%
+$378
35.00148.1%
-$76
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.66
18 Sep
2d
0.48
16 Oct
30d
0.49
15 Jan
121d
0.53
16 Apr
212d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
12
13
14
15
16
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 1 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 0% of the time.
Directional follow-through0%
Moves contained by pricing0%
Average expiry move13.0%
5 Aug
Bullish · 48
-13.0% through expiry
6.8% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Mixed · 25
-13.0% through expiry
10.9% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Volatility · 51
-13.0% through expiry
10.3% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Volatility · 53
-13.0% through expiry
10.6% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Mixed · 25
-12.9% through expiry
10.8% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 16 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 178 / 178
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Directional flow, confirmation needed
There is useful activity, but aggregate chain data does not isolate participant intent.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Directional flow, confirmation needed matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $65,908 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · atm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+100
1W price-3.0%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split
C 100% / P 0%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.51
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM
calls cluster with 700 contracts traded, $56,000 estimated gross traded notional, and 85% of visible notional.
$56,000
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 40 contracts traded, $4,600 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$4,600
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 170 contracts traded, $4,388 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$4,388
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $920 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$920
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
High anomaly
Current options activity is unusually hot versus this ticker's stored history.
Baseline: 13 completed sessions
Volume rank100th
Volume/OI rank100th
IV rank100th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close14.11
1W-3.0%
RS-45.9
Fair value-57.1%
Options pressure100
Speculation52
Volatility65
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 13/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 13/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 13/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 13/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 13/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 13/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 12:13
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 12.4%
30 Jul 11:49
Bearish
Pressure -90
Move 9.4%
31 Jul 11:24
Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 10.8%
3 Aug 10:23
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 10.6%
4 Aug 11:35
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 10.3%
5 Aug 12:04
Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 10.9%
6 Aug 12:16
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 6.8%
1 Sep 10:43
Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 7.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike9.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike11.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike13.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike14.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike16.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 100
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.66
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.48
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts46
Avg IV0.49
Put-call-
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Contracts42
Avg IV0.53
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.34
Skew0.05
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.67
Skew0.21
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.66
Skew0.25
16 Apr 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.88
Skew0.47
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractDUG261016C00014000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike14.00
Volume700
OI21
IV0.28
ContractDUG261016C00016000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike16.00
Volume80
OI87
IV0.18
ContractDUG261016C00017000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike17.00
Volume75
OI148
IV0.27
ContractDUG270115C00014000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike14.00
Volume40
OI76
IV0.23
ContractDUG261016C00015000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike15.00
Volume15
OI122
IV0.45
ContractDUG260918C00010000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume2
OI-
IV3.14
ContractDUG261016C00030000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI350
IV0.99
ContractDUG260918P00016000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike16.00
Volume-
OI100
IV1.59
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.