Ticker Options Intelligence

STRO options intelligence

Sutro Biopharma options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 73 Market data through 21 Sep 2026 Checked 22 Sep 2026 13:26 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

STRO currently carries volatility options pressure with a 73/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 34.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 7.18.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 34.6%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 7.18

Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.00

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -9.0%

RS -29.3

Expected move 34.6%
Put-call volume 0.00
Volume / OI 7.18
Reference IV 1.14
Max pain 17.50
Underlying 15.34
Nearest expiry 16 Oct 2026
Contracts 96

Research Brief

STRO has a volatility chain read with 73/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 10.04–20.64; The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.50; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00.

Priced range10.04–20.64
Call concentration17.50
Put concentration12.50
Max pain reference17.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 16 Oct

Options imply 10.04 to 20.64. Max pain at 17.50 sits inside that range, 14.1% above spot.

Spot Max pain
10.0415.34 ± 5.3020.64
Confirmation level

A close beyond 20.64 or below 10.04 at the 16 Oct expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 73/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation98 × 22%
+21.6

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score73.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.50; the largest put concentration is 12.50. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
10.00-34.8%
0
1
12.50-18.5%
0
0
15.00-2.2%
0
0
17.5014.1%
12
0
20.0030.4%
2
1
22.5046.7%
10
0
25.0063.0%
1
0
30.0095.6%
1
0
35.00128.2%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Balanced gamma proxy

Reported Greeks · 100% coverage

Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.

Net profile+$36Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak20.00+$149
Negative peak15.00-$75
Nearest balance17.24Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
12.50-18.5%
-$29
15.00-2.2%
-$75
17.5014.1%
+$9
20.0030.4%
+$149
22.5046.7%
+$59
25.0063.0%
-$27
30.0095.6%
-$69
35.00128.2%
+$9
40.00160.8%
+$5
45.00193.4%
+$4
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.14× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.14 16 Oct 25d
1.02 20 Nov 60d
0.99 19 Feb 151d
1.00 21 May 242d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

13
15
18
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

21 matured · 1 directional

Across 1 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 100% of the time.

Directional follow-through100%
Moves contained by pricing62%
Average expiry move15.3%
17 Sep Volatility · 61 -9.0% through expiry 7.2% priced · v2.0
16 Sep Bearish · 59 -9.0% through expiry 29.7% priced · v2.0
15 Sep Volatility · 46 -9.0% through expiry 6.3% priced · v2.0
11 Sep Volatility · 46 -9.0% through expiry 10.5% priced · v2.0
9 Sep Volatility · 57 -23.6% through expiry 9.3% priced · v2.0
4 Sep Mixed · 37 -23.6% through expiry 18.0% priced · v2.0
3 Sep Mixed · 36 -25.0% through expiry 13.2% priced · v2.0
1 Sep Volatility · 49 -25.0% through expiry 17.7% priced · v2.0
28 Aug Volatility · 59 -27.1% through expiry 21.4% priced · v2.0
24 Aug Volatility · 66 -27.1% through expiry 18.2% priced · v2.0
17 Aug Volatility · 47 2.7% through expiry 13.4% priced · v2.0
14 Aug Volatility · 59 2.7% through expiry 16.0% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
21 Sep 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
96 / 96
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

92/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $274,900 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · atm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+100
1W price-9.0%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 100% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 7.18 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 22-45 days · ATM
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM calls cluster with 681 contracts traded, $200,895 estimated gross traded notional, and 73% of visible notional.
$200,895
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM calls cluster with 264 contracts traded, $72,660 estimated gross traded notional, and 26% of visible notional.
$72,660
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $1,135 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$1,135
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $210 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$210

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Speculative chase

Participation is active enough to treat follow-through risk carefully.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Above normal

83

Activity is running above the recent historical baseline.

Baseline: 23 completed sessions

Volume rank100th
Volume/OI rank100th
IV rank48th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close15.34
1W-9.0%
RS-29.3
Fair value-38.4%
Options pressure100
Speculation98
Volatility96
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 34.6% elevated
30d avg 15.1% · 10 sessions 100th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -
IV 1.14 elevated
30d avg 0.80 · 10 sessions 90th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 14/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 14/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 7.18 elevated
30d avg 0.15 · 10 sessions 100th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:26 Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 29.9%
30 Jul 11:11 Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 29.3%
31 Jul 10:45 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 30.4%
2 Aug 18:19 Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 28.5%
4 Aug 10:41 Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 28.1%
5 Aug 11:11 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 24.6%
6 Aug 11:14 Volatility
Pressure -95
Move 25.0%
10 Aug 11:04 Volatility
Pressure -28
Move 24.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike15.00
Calls · V 681 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 256 · OI 12
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 8 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV1.14
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV1.02
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts26
Avg IV0.99
Put-call-
Expiry21 May 2027
Contracts22
Avg IV1.00
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.86
Put IV1.85
Skew0.99
20 Nov 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.39
Put IV1.27
Skew-0.12
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV1.13
Put IV1.19
Skew0.06
21 May 2027Balanced skew
Call IV1.12
Put IV1.07
Skew-0.05

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractSTRO261016C00015000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike15.00
Volume681
OI-
IV1.34
ContractSTRO261016C00017500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike17.50
Volume256
OI12
IV1.92
ContractSTRO261016C00020000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike20.00
Volume8
OI2
IV0.86
ContractSTRO261120C00022500
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike22.50
Volume2
OI5
IV0.34
ContractSTRO270521P00025000
SidePut
Expiry21 May 2027
Strike25.00
Volume1
OI-
IV1.04
ContractSTRO261120C00020000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI18
IV1.39
ContractSTRO261120P00030000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI11
IV1.36
ContractSTRO261016C00022500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike22.50
Volume-
OI10
IV0.53

Evidence context