Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
CGON options intelligence
CG Oncology, Inc. Common stock options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
57
Market data through 11 Aug 2026
Checked 12 Aug 2026 14:24 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
CGON currently carries volatility options pressure with a 57/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
9.1%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.02
Call-side skew
Trend fit
1
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+5.5%
RS 24.3
Expected move
9.1%
Put-call volume
0.02
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.62
Max pain
70.00
Underlying
75.10
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
132
Research Brief
CGON has a volatility chain read with 57/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 68.30–81.90; The largest call open-interest concentration is 80.00; the largest put concentration is 70.00. The most active strike by current volume is 70.00.
Priced range68.30–81.90
Call concentration80.00
Put concentration70.00
Max pain reference70.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 68.30 to 81.90. Max pain at 70.00 sits inside that range, 6.8% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
68.3075.10 ± 6.8081.90
Confirmation level
A close beyond 81.90 or below 68.30 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 57/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation31 × 22%
+6.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement1 × 26%
+0.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility80 × 10%
+8.0
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 80.00; the largest put concentration is 70.00. The most active strike by current volume is 70.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
30.00-60.1%
0
0
35.00-53.4%
0
0
40.00-46.7%
0
23
45.00-40.1%
0
38
50.00-33.4%
3
47
55.00-26.8%
17
72
60.00-20.1%
39
637
65.00-13.4%
332
1407
70.00-6.8%
1266
166
75.00-0.1%
1467
0
80.006.5%
2036
0
85.0013.2%
88
0
90.0019.8%
66
0
95.0026.5%
91
0
100.0033.2%
6
0
105.0039.8%
2
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$1.9MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak80.00+$569,063
Negative peak50.00-$13,469
Nearest balance55.13Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
30.00-60.1%
-$5
35.00-53.4%
+$119
40.00-46.7%
+$118
45.00-40.1%
-$61
50.00-33.4%
-$13,469
55.00-26.8%
-$564
60.00-20.1%
+$21,115
65.00-13.4%
+$23,362
70.00-6.8%
+$424,073
75.00-0.1%
+$522,585
80.006.5%
+$569,063
85.0013.2%
+$20,981
90.0019.8%
+$19,879
95.0026.5%
+$255,869
100.0033.2%
+$2,377
105.0039.8%
+$58,165
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.62
21 Aug
10d
0.86
18 Sep
38d
0.84
16 Oct
66d
0.72
15 Jan
157d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
65
70
75
80
85
90
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 11 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 132 / 132
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $247,222 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · atm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+100
1W price+5.5%
Call premium99%
Put premium1%
Notional split
C 99% / P 1%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
1/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
14 Aug
Matched earnings event is 0 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 64 contracts traded, $77,760 estimated gross traded notional, and 31% of visible notional.
$77,760
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 51 contracts traded, $48,400 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$48,400
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM
calls cluster with 41 contracts traded, $39,360 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$39,360
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 26 contracts traded, $38,220 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$38,220
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 35 contracts traded, $15,865 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$15,865
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 10 completed sessions
Volume rank40th
Volume/OI rank40th
IV rank0th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close75.10
1W+5.5%
RS24.3
Fair value+85.7%
Options pressure100
Speculation31
Volatility80
Trend fit1
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 17.9% · 10 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 1.00 · 10 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.53 · 10 sessions
20th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.10 · 10 sessions
40th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:37
Bearish
Pressure -25
Move 21.4%
30 Jul 10:34
Volatility
Pressure 72
Move 21.6%
30 Jul 17:18
Volatility
Pressure 48
Move 20.2%
3 Aug 03:28
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 20.6%
3 Aug 19:22
Volatility
Pressure 52
Move 18.1%
4 Aug 11:12
Bullish
Pressure 20
Move 20.5%
5 Aug 12:55
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 18.9%
5 Aug 21:58
Volatility
Pressure 81
Move 19.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 23
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 38
Strike55.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 17
Puts · V 0 · OI 47
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 39
Puts · V 0 · OI 72
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 332
Puts · V 1 · OI 637
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.62
Put-call0.03
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.86
Put-call0.01
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.84
Put-call0.03
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts32
Avg IV0.72
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.76
Put IV0.77
Skew0.01
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.80
Put IV0.94
Skew0.15
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.81
Put IV0.93
Skew0.12
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.66
Put IV0.76
Skew0.10
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCGON261016C00075000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike75.00
Volume64
OI1100
IV0.84
ContractCGON260821C00070000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike70.00
Volume50
OI1266
IV1.01
ContractCGON260918C00075000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike75.00
Volume41
OI131
IV0.86
ContractCGON260918C00085000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike85.00
Volume27
OI7
IV0.70
ContractCGON261016C00070000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike70.00
Volume26
OI762
IV0.85
ContractCGON261016C00105000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike105.00
Volume10
OI14
IV0.81
ContractCGON260918C00080000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike80.00
Volume6
OI410
IV0.83
ContractCGON260918C00070000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike70.00
Volume6
OI264
IV0.89
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.