Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
AGI options intelligence
Alamos Gold Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
60
Market data through 13 Aug 2026
Checked 14 Aug 2026 01:14 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
AGI currently carries bearish options pressure with a 60/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.06.
Expected move
5.4%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.06
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
4.01
Put-side skew
Trend fit
93
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+19.1%
RS -20.9
Expected move
5.4%
Put-call volume
4.01
Volume / OI
0.06
Reference IV
0.44
Max pain
30.00
Underlying
33.15
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
512
Research Brief
AGI has a bearish chain read with 60/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 31.35–34.95; The largest call open-interest concentration is 38.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 29.00.
Priced range31.35–34.95
Call concentration38.00
Put concentration30.00
Max pain reference30.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 31.35 to 34.95. Max pain at 30.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
31.3533.15 ± 1.8034.95
Confirmation level
A close beyond 34.95 or below 31.35 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 60/100
Pressure is 52/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure52 × 42%
+21.9
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement93 × 26%
+24.1
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility52 × 10%
+5.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 38.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 29.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
87
24.00-27.6%
5
1897
25.00-24.6%
4
259
26.00-21.6%
6
142
27.00-18.6%
56
775
28.00-15.5%
766
383
29.00-12.5%
1050
2160
30.00-9.5%
1217
644
31.00-6.5%
795
44
32.00-3.5%
590
210
33.00-0.5%
336
35
34.002.6%
542
229
35.005.6%
843
98
36.008.6%
1630
4
37.0011.6%
305
0
38.0014.6%
2145
6
40.0020.7%
205
0
41.0023.7%
206
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$2.0MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak35.00+$356,922
Negative peak25.00-$41,140
Nearest balance28.33Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
23.00-30.6%
+$3,473
24.00-27.6%
-$2,201
25.00-24.6%
-$41,140
26.00-21.6%
-$4,523
27.00-18.6%
+$6,882
28.00-15.5%
-$12,495
29.00-12.5%
+$25,276
30.00-9.5%
+$60,171
31.00-6.5%
+$138,322
32.00-3.5%
+$149,432
33.00-0.5%
+$18,224
34.002.6%
+$48,796
35.005.6%
+$356,922
36.008.6%
+$286,467
37.0011.6%
+$62,212
38.0014.6%
+$58,074
39.0017.6%
+$14,056
40.0020.7%
+$308,700
41.0023.7%
+$3,602
42.0026.7%
+$110,147
43.0029.7%
+$8,502
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.44
21 Aug
8d
0.48
18 Sep
36d
0.53
18 Dec
127d
0.53
15 Jan
155d
0.52
19 Feb
190d
0.52
19 Mar
218d
0.52
16 Apr
246d
0.52
21 May
281d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 13 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 512 / 512
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.7M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 22-45 days · atm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-52
1W price+19.1%
Call premium35%
Put premium65%
Notional split
C 35% / P 65%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.06
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
93/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 22-45 days · ATM
puts cluster with 5405 contracts traded, $1.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 60% of visible notional.
$1.0M
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 418 contracts traded, $269,590 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$269,590
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 531 contracts traded, $204,062 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$204,062
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 206 contracts traded, $83,038 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$83,038
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM
puts cluster with 102 contracts traded, $33,640 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$33,640
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 12 completed sessions
Volume rank83th
Volume/OI rank83th
IV rank8th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close33.15
1W+19.1%
RS-20.9
Fair value+34.9%
Options pressure-52
Speculation41
Volatility52
Trend fit93
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 10.0% · 12 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.51 · 12 sessions
8th
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.35 · 12 sessions
100th
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.04 · 12 sessions
83th
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:21
Bullish
Pressure 69
Move 11.8%
30 Jul 10:15
Volatility
Pressure 82
Move 13.4%
31 Jul 10:07
Volatility
Pressure 72
Move 10.7%
2 Aug 05:18
Bullish
Pressure 47
Move 10.0%
2 Aug 12:56
Bullish
Pressure 54
Move 10.0%
4 Aug 10:05
Bullish
Pressure 40
Move 9.5%
5 Aug 10:13
Bullish
Pressure 57
Move 10.0%
6 Aug 01:31
Bullish
Pressure 83
Move 13.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike16.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike18.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike19.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike21.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike23.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 7
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts66
Avg IV0.44
Put-call0.12
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.48
Put-call22.26
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts80
Avg IV0.53
Put-call0.03
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts88
Avg IV0.53
Put-call0.23
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts56
Avg IV0.52
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.49
Skew-0.01
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.48
Skew0.01
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.54
Skew0.06
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.53
Put IV0.54
Skew0.01
19 Feb 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.45
Skew-0.06
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractAGI260918P00033000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike33.00
Volume5405
OI250
IV0.45
ContractAGI260821C00029000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike29.00
Volume501
OI1050
IV0.46
ContractAGI270115C00030000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike30.00
Volume210
OI3017
IV0.52
ContractAGI261218C00032000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike32.00
Volume150
OI146
IV0.55
ContractAGI260918P00035000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike35.00
Volume100
OI1281
IV0.49
ContractAGI260918P00029000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike29.00
Volume80
OI237
IV0.47
ContractAGI260918C00034000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike34.00
Volume74
OI444
IV0.47
ContractAGI270416C00037000
SideCall
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Strike37.00
Volume55
OI58
IV0.52
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.