Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
CINF options intelligence
Cincinnati Financial Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
41
Market data through 17 Sep 2026
Checked 17 Sep 2026 16:41 · partial chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
CINF currently carries bullish options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 1.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.15.
Expected move
1.4%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.15
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.75
Call-side skew
Trend fit
63
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-0.8%
RS -7.0
Expected move
1.4%
Put-call volume
0.75
Volume / OI
0.15
Reference IV
0.57
Max pain
160.00
Underlying
169.80
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
115
Research Brief
CINF has a bullish chain read with 41/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 167.50–172.10; The largest call open-interest concentration is 190.00; the largest put concentration is 170.00. The most active strike by current volume is 195.00.
Priced range167.50–172.10
Call concentration190.00
Put concentration170.00
Max pain reference160.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 167.50 to 172.10. Max pain at 160.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
167.50169.80 ± 2.30172.10
Confirmation level
A close beyond 172.10 or below 167.50 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 41/100
Pressure is 24/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure24 × 42%
+10.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation43 × 22%
+9.5
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement63 × 26%
+16.5
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility45 × 10%
+4.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 190.00; the largest put concentration is 170.00. The most active strike by current volume is 195.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
20
125.00-26.4%
0
2
130.00-23.4%
4
4
135.00-20.5%
3
23
145.00-14.6%
10
6
150.00-11.7%
65
7
155.00-8.7%
5
27
160.00-5.8%
58
33
165.00-2.8%
45
40
170.000.1%
585
2
175.003.1%
114
0
180.006.0%
326
1
185.009.0%
362
1
190.0011.9%
819
0
195.0014.8%
315
0
200.0017.8%
384
0
210.0023.7%
479
0
220.0029.6%
5
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$2.7MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak170.00+$1.7M
Negative peak150.00-$43,373
Nearest balance156.07Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
110.00-35.2%
-$232
115.00-32.3%
-$190
120.00-29.3%
+$625
125.00-26.4%
-$244
130.00-23.4%
-$1,951
135.00-20.5%
-$2,163
140.00-17.6%
-$39,960
145.00-14.6%
-$3,987
150.00-11.7%
-$43,373
155.00-8.7%
-$8,066
160.00-5.8%
+$29,770
165.00-2.8%
+$4,719
170.000.1%
+$1.7M
175.003.1%
+$123,133
180.006.0%
+$162,270
185.009.0%
+$234,270
190.0011.9%
+$162,214
195.0014.8%
+$91,214
200.0017.8%
+$211,326
210.0023.7%
+$43,659
220.0029.6%
+$756
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.57
18 Sep
1d
0.27
16 Oct
29d
0.28
20 Nov
64d
0.30
18 Dec
92d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 14 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 29% of the time.
Directional follow-through29%
Moves contained by pricing13%
Average expiry move4.5%
20 Aug
Mixed · 36
-2.8% through expiry
4.0% priced · v2.0
19 Aug
Mixed · 39
-2.8% through expiry
3.5% priced · v2.0
18 Aug
Bullish · 38
-2.8% through expiry
2.3% priced · v2.0
17 Aug
Bullish · 46
-2.8% through expiry
2.7% priced · v2.0
14 Aug
Bullish · 49
-2.8% through expiry
2.5% priced · v2.0
13 Aug
Bullish · 49
-4.8% through expiry
2.9% priced · v2.0
12 Aug
Bullish · 44
-4.8% through expiry
2.8% priced · v2.0
11 Aug
Bullish · 45
-4.8% through expiry
3.3% priced · v2.0
10 Aug
Bullish · 43
-4.8% through expiry
3.6% priced · v2.0
7 Aug
Bearish · 47
-4.8% through expiry
4.0% priced · v2.0
6 Aug
Bullish · 43
-5.3% through expiry
4.2% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Bullish · 47
-5.3% through expiry
4.5% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Good
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Retained chain subset
- Market date
- 17 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 115 / 115
- 100% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Call-heavy activity with trend alignment
Call concentration and the underlying trend align, but aggregate volume cannot establish whether calls were bought or sold.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Call-heavy activity with trend alignment matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $909,255 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+24
1W price-0.8%
Call premium74%
Put premium26%
Notional split
C 74% / P 26%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.15
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
63/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 129 contracts traded, $333,380 estimated gross traded notional, and 37% of visible notional.
$333,380
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 58 contracts traded, $210,255 estimated gross traded notional, and 23% of visible notional.
$210,255
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 147 contracts traded, $177,840 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$177,840
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 21 contracts traded, $61,680 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$61,680
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 215 contracts traded, $29,998 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$29,998
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
High anomaly
Current options activity is unusually hot versus this ticker's stored history.
Baseline: 29 completed sessions
Volume rank83th
Volume/OI rank83th
IV rank100th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close169.80
1W-0.8%
RS-7.0
Fair value+22.8%
Options pressure24
Speculation43
Volatility45
Trend fit63
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 3.4% · 14 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 29/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 29/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.27 · 14 sessions
100th
90d avg - · 29/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 29/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.78 · 14 sessions
64th
90d avg - · 28/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 28/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.09 · 14 sessions
64th
90d avg - · 29/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 29/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
4 Aug 10:05
Bearish
Pressure -65
Move 4.8%
5 Aug 10:13
Bullish
Pressure 61
Move 4.4%
6 Aug 10:13
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 4.5%
7 Aug 10:48
Bullish
Pressure 94
Move 4.2%
9 Aug 21:11
Bearish
Pressure -92
Move 4.0%
11 Aug 10:41
Bullish
Pressure 83
Move 3.6%
12 Aug 10:42
Bullish
Pressure 61
Move 3.3%
13 Aug 10:23
Bullish
Pressure 56
Move 2.8%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike115.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike120.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike125.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 20
Strike130.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 4
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike135.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 3
Puts · V 1 · OI 4
Strike140.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike145.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 10
Puts · V 3 · OI 23
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts33
Avg IV0.57
Put-call0.21
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV0.27
Put-call0.10
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts37
Avg IV0.28
Put-call1.49
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts33
Avg IV0.30
Put-call0.84
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.61
Put IV0.53
Skew-0.08
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.28
Skew0.03
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.30
Skew0.02
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.29
Skew0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCINF261218P00190000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike190.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.27
ContractCINF261218P00185000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike185.00
Volume-
OI12
IV0.28
ContractCINF261218P00100000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike100.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.65
ContractCINF261218C00125000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike125.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.67
ContractCINF261218P00115000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike115.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.56
ContractCINF261016C00165000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike165.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.28
ContractCINF261016C00210000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike210.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.48
ContractCINF260918P00190000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike190.00
Volume-
OI1
IV1.34
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.