Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
TAIL options intelligence
CAMBRIA TAIL RISK ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
40
Market data through 14 Sep 2026
Checked 15 Sep 2026 11:46 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
TAIL currently carries bullish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.
Expected move
2.8%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.00
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.00
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-1.1%
RS -17.1
Expected move
2.8%
Put-call volume
-
Volume / OI
0.00
Reference IV
0.26
Max pain
8.00
Underlying
10.10
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
132
Research Brief
TAIL has a bullish chain read with 40/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 9.82–10.38; The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 8.00. The most active strike by current volume is 7.00.
Priced range9.82–10.38
Call concentration10.00
Put concentration8.00
Max pain reference8.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 9.82 to 10.38. Max pain at 8.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
9.8210.10 ± 0.2810.38
Confirmation level
A close beyond 10.38 or below 9.82 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 40/100
Pressure is 89/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure89 × 42%
+37.5
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation0 × 22%
+0.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility30 × 10%
+3.0
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 8.00. The most active strike by current volume is 7.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
7.00-30.7%
0
1300
8.00-20.8%
0
0
9.00-10.9%
0
0
10.00-1.0%
134
0
11.008.9%
3
0
12.0018.8%
3
0
13.0028.7%
0
0
14.0038.6%
0
0
15.0048.5%
17
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$4,873Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak10.00+$5,493
Negative peak8.00-$5,604
Nearest balance9.00Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
8.00-20.8%
-$5,604
9.00-10.9%
+$0
10.00-1.0%
+$5,493
11.008.9%
+$3,111
12.0018.8%
+$1,834
15.0048.5%
+$40
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.26
18 Sep
4d
0.17
16 Oct
32d
0.23
18 Dec
95d
0.14
19 Mar
186d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
9
10
11
12
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 3 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 0% of the time.
Directional follow-through0%
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move1.4%
4 Aug
Bullish · 30
-1.2% through expiry
5.1% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Mixed · 30
-1.2% through expiry
4.6% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Bullish · 41
-1.2% through expiry
5.7% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Bullish · 41
-2.1% through expiry
5.9% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 14 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 132 / 132
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Call activity against legacy put OI
Call activity is dominant while put open interest remains large but current put volume is not leading.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Call activity against legacy put OI matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $62 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+89
1W price-1.1%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split
C 100% / P 0%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.00
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Do not infer a hedge unwind without next-session open-interest changes and opening/closing data.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $62 estimated gross traded notional, and 100% of visible notional.
$62
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 12 completed sessions
Volume rank42th
Volume/OI rank33th
IV rank92th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close10.10
1W-1.1%
RS-17.1
Fair value-10.8%
Options pressure89
Speculation0
Volatility30
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 8/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 8/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 13:10
Bearish
Pressure -100
Move 6.0%
30 Jul 13:02
Bullish
Pressure 88
Move 5.0%
31 Jul 12:35
Bullish
Pressure 88
Move 5.9%
3 Aug 11:25
Bullish
Pressure 88
Move 5.7%
4 Aug 12:41
Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 4.6%
5 Aug 13:05
Bullish
Pressure 48
Move 5.1%
21 Aug 20:54
Volatility
Pressure -99
Move 13.4%
24 Aug 06:22
Bullish
Pressure 88
Move 6.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1300
Strike9.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 134
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike11.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike13.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike14.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.26
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.17
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.23
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts38
Avg IV0.14
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.11
Skew-0.36
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.16
Put IV0.04
Skew-0.12
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.62
Skew0.36
19 Mar 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.03
Skew-0.27
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractTAIL270319C00011000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike11.00
Volume1
OI-
IV0.31
ContractTAIL260918P00008000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike8.00
Volume-
OI1300
IV1.14
ContractTAIL261218C00012000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike12.00
Volume-
OI203
IV0.17
ContractTAIL260918C00010000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI134
IV0.01
ContractTAIL261016C00010000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI102
IV0.01
ContractTAIL261218C00010000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI95
IV0.14
ContractTAIL261218C00011000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike11.00
Volume-
OI75
IV0.26
ContractTAIL261016C00011000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike11.00
Volume-
OI50
IV0.16
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.