Ticker Options Intelligence

SAFE options intelligence

Safehold Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 31 Market data through 18 Sep 2026 Checked 21 Sep 2026 12:41 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

SAFE currently carries bullish options pressure with a 31/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.08.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 6.3%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.08

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.53

Call-side skew

Trend fit 51

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -6.3%

RS -17.6

Expected move 6.3%
Put-call volume 0.53
Volume / OI 0.08
Reference IV 0.40
Max pain 15.00
Underlying 13.14
Nearest expiry 16 Oct 2026
Contracts 86

Research Brief

SAFE has a bullish chain read with 31/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 12.32–13.96; The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 15.00. The most active strike by current volume is 12.50.

Priced range12.32–13.96
Call concentration15.00
Put concentration15.00
Max pain reference15.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 16 Oct

Options imply 12.32 to 13.96. Max pain at 15.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
12.3213.14 ± 0.8213.96
Confirmation level

A close beyond 13.96 or below 12.32 at the 16 Oct expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 31/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 19/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure19 × 42%
+7.8

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation20 × 22%
+4.3

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement51 × 26%
+13.2

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility53 × 10%
+5.3

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score30.7Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 15.00. The most active strike by current volume is 12.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-81.0%
2
0
5.00-61.9%
0
0
7.50-42.9%
0
1
10.00-23.9%
0
104
12.50-4.9%
40
176
15.0014.2%
86
122
17.5033.2%
47
1
20.0052.2%
33
0
22.5071.2%
1
0
25.0090.3%
0
0
30.00128.3%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Negative gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 92% coverage

Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile-$15,411Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak17.50+$566
Negative peak15.00-$9,985
Nearest balance17.37Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50-81.0%
+$5
5.00-61.9%
+$9
10.00-23.9%
-$4
12.50-4.9%
-$6,097
15.0014.2%
-$9,985
17.5033.2%
+$566
20.0052.2%
+$92
22.5071.2%
+$2
30.00128.3%
+$1
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.35× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.40 16 Oct 28d
0.32 20 Nov 63d
0.32 15 Jan 119d
0.29 16 Apr 210d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

13
15
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

20 matured · 7 directional

Across 7 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 57% of the time.

Directional follow-through57%
Moves contained by pricing70%
Average expiry move7.6%
16 Sep Bullish · 41 -6.3% through expiry 13.2% priced · v2.0
14 Sep Volatility · 51 -6.3% through expiry 14.1% priced · v2.0
10 Sep Bearish · 48 -13.1% through expiry 8.4% priced · v2.0
8 Sep Mixed · 39 -13.1% through expiry 8.2% priced · v2.0
4 Sep Volatility · 49 -13.1% through expiry 10.0% priced · v2.0
3 Sep Mixed · 36 -14.5% through expiry 8.6% priced · v2.0
31 Aug Bearish · 47 -14.5% through expiry 5.0% priced · v2.0
21 Aug Bearish · 49 -14.5% through expiry 9.1% priced · v2.0
20 Aug Volatility · 54 0.8% through expiry 8.4% priced · v2.0
14 Aug Bearish · 48 0.8% through expiry 6.0% priced · v2.0
13 Aug Mixed · 35 -5.6% through expiry 14.3% priced · v2.0
12 Aug Volatility · 57 -5.6% through expiry 7.4% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
18 Sep 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
86 / 86
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Call activity against legacy put OI

63/100
Primary intent Call activity against legacy put OI

Call activity is dominant while put open interest remains large but current put volume is not leading.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Call activity against legacy put OI matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $6,760 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+19
1W price-6.3%
Call premium73%
Put premium27%
Notional split C 73% / P 27% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.08 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 51/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Do not infer a hedge unwind without next-session open-interest changes and opening/closing data.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 21 contracts traded, $2,660 estimated gross traded notional, and 39% of visible notional.
$2,660
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM calls cluster with 40 contracts traded, $2,100 estimated gross traded notional, and 31% of visible notional.
$2,100
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 10 contracts traded, $1,100 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$1,100
Puts · 22-45 days · OTM puts cluster with 25 contracts traded, $750 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$750
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $150 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$150

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

59

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 22 completed sessions

Volume rank82th
Volume/OI rank77th
IV rank18th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close13.14
1W-6.3%
RS-17.6
Fair value-21.8%
Options pressure19
Speculation20
Volatility53
Trend fit51

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 6.3% history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 22/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 22/60 sessions -
IV 0.40 history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 22/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 22/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.53 history building
30d avg - · 7/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 14/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 14/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.08 history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 22/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 22/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:13 Bullish
Pressure 49
Move 6.0%
30 Jul 10:59 Bearish
Pressure -100
Move 13.7%
31 Jul 09:03 Bearish
Pressure -46
Move 12.8%
3 Aug 01:31 Mixed
Pressure -3
Move 9.5%
4 Aug 09:46 Bullish
Pressure 97
Move 7.5%
5 Aug 09:52 Mixed
Pressure -3
Move 7.5%
6 Aug 13:05 Volatility
Pressure 97
Move 9.9%
7 Aug 00:11 Volatility
Pressure 80
Move 17.6%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike12.50
Calls · V 40 · OI 40
Puts · V 25 · OI 104
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 86
Puts · V 0 · OI 176
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 47
Puts · V 0 · OI 122
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 33
Puts · V 0 · OI 1

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.40
Put-call0.63
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.32
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts22
Avg IV0.32
Put-call-
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Contracts22
Avg IV0.29
Put-call10.00

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.12
Skew-0.12
20 Nov 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.16
Put IV0.08
Skew-0.08
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.32
Skew0.04
16 Apr 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.40
Skew0.08

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractSAFE261016C00012500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike12.50
Volume40
OI40
IV0.01
ContractSAFE261016P00012500
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike12.50
Volume25
OI104
IV0.12
ContractSAFE270115C00012500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike12.50
Volume20
OI9
IV0.27
ContractSAFE270416P00012500
SidePut
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Strike12.50
Volume10
OI108
IV0.40
ContractSAFE270115C00015000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike15.00
Volume5
OI42
IV0.28
ContractSAFE270416C00012500
SideCall
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Strike12.50
Volume1
OI-
IV0.28
ContractSAFE270115P00015000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI206
IV0.33
ContractSAFE261016P00015000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI176
IV0.61

Evidence context