Ticker Options Intelligence

DRD options intelligence

DRDGOLD Limited ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 51 Market data through 16 Sep 2026 Checked 17 Sep 2026 14:21 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

DRD currently carries volatility options pressure with a 51/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 9.6%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 3.00

Put-side skew

Trend fit 98

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -3.6%

RS -13.0

Expected move 9.6%
Put-call volume 3.00
Volume / OI 0.00
Reference IV 0.61
Max pain 27.50
Underlying 26.81
Nearest expiry 18 Sep 2026
Contracts 106

Research Brief

DRD has a volatility chain read with 51/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 24.24–29.38; The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 27.50. The most active strike by current volume is 12.50.

Priced range24.24–29.38
Call concentration30.00
Put concentration27.50
Max pain reference27.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 18 Sep

Options imply 24.24 to 29.38. Max pain at 27.50 sits inside that range, 2.6% above spot.

Spot Max pain
24.2426.81 ± 2.5729.38
Confirmation level

A close beyond 29.38 or below 24.24 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 51/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 40/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure40 × 42%
+16.7

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation1 × 22%
+0.3

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement98 × 26%
+25.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility81 × 10%
+8.1

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score50.7Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 27.50. The most active strike by current volume is 12.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
12.50-53.4%
0
0
15.00-44.1%
0
0
17.50-34.7%
0
6
20.00-25.4%
0
5
22.50-16.1%
2
7
25.00-6.8%
4
26
27.502.6%
27
15
30.0011.9%
30
0
32.5021.2%
7
0
35.0030.5%
1
0
37.5039.9%
0
0
40.0049.2%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 98% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$21,028Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak22.50+$3,543
Negative peak-No negative strike
Nearest balance-Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
15.00-44.1%
+$69
17.50-34.7%
+$429
20.00-25.4%
+$1,902
22.50-16.1%
+$3,543
25.00-6.8%
+$2,892
27.502.6%
+$2,579
30.0011.9%
+$910
32.5021.2%
+$778
35.0030.5%
+$3,325
37.5039.9%
+$3,397
40.0049.2%
+$408
42.5058.5%
+$173
45.0067.8%
+$621
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

1.01× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.61 18 Sep 2d
0.50 16 Oct 30d
0.52 20 Nov 65d
0.61 19 Feb 156d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

23
25
28
30
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

13 matured · 5 directional

Across 5 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 100% of the time.

Directional follow-through100%
Moves contained by pricing0%
Average expiry move32.9%
20 Aug Bullish · 40 23.5% through expiry 21.1% priced · v2.0
18 Aug Volatility · 45 23.5% through expiry 8.0% priced · v2.0
17 Aug Bullish · 40 23.5% through expiry 7.0% priced · v2.0
14 Aug Volatility · 50 23.5% through expiry 8.7% priced · v2.0
13 Aug Volatility · 52 26.4% through expiry 9.5% priced · v2.0
12 Aug Volatility · 46 26.4% through expiry 10.7% priced · v2.0
10 Aug Volatility · 59 26.4% through expiry 13.1% priced · v2.0
7 Aug Bullish · 41 26.4% through expiry 6.7% priced · v2.0
5 Aug Bullish · 29 46.3% through expiry 16.0% priced · v2.0
4 Aug Volatility · 59 46.3% through expiry 12.4% priced · v2.0
3 Aug Volatility · 53 46.3% through expiry 13.0% priced · v2.0
31 Jul Bullish · 42 46.3% through expiry 17.2% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
16 Sep 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
106 / 106
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

92/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $790 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-40
1W price-3.6%
Call premium62%
Put premium38%
Notional split C 62% / P 38% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 98/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $490 estimated gross traded notional, and 62% of visible notional.
$490
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $162 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$162
Puts · 22-45 days · OTM puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $138 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$138

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Quiet tape

14

Activity is muted versus this ticker's stored history.

Baseline: 24 completed sessions

Volume rank4th
Volume/OI rank4th
IV rank33th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close26.81
1W-3.6%
RS-13.0
Fair value+65.2%
Options pressure-40
Speculation1
Volatility81
Trend fit98

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 9.6% near normal
30d avg 11.0% · 12 sessions 42th
90d avg - · 24/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 24/60 sessions -
IV 0.61 near normal
30d avg 0.78 · 12 sessions 33th
90d avg - · 24/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 24/60 sessions -
Put-call 3.00 elevated
30d avg 0.32 · 12 sessions 100th
90d avg - · 24/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 24/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 muted
30d avg 0.05 · 12 sessions 0th
90d avg - · 24/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 24/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:59 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 19.5%
30 Jul 10:48 Bullish
Pressure 52
Move 13.7%
31 Jul 13:17 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 13.8%
3 Aug 00:24 Bullish
Pressure 78
Move 17.2%
3 Aug 18:10 Bullish
Pressure 50
Move 12.2%
4 Aug 11:27 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 13.0%
5 Aug 11:30 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 12.4%
6 Aug 11:37 Bullish
Pressure 27
Move 16.0%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 7
Strike27.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 27
Puts · V 0 · OI 26
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 30
Puts · V 0 · OI 15

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.61
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.50
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV0.52
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts28
Avg IV0.61
Put-call2.00

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.16
Skew-0.38
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.56
Skew0.06
20 Nov 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.66
Put IV0.49
Skew-0.17
19 Feb 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.66
Put IV0.56
Skew-0.10

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractDRD270219C00025000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike25.00
Volume1
OI227
IV0.69
ContractDRD270219P00020000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike20.00
Volume1
OI28
IV0.59
ContractDRD261016P00025000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike25.00
Volume1
OI26
IV0.56
ContractDRD270219P00015000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike15.00
Volume1
OI6
IV0.63
ContractDRD270219C00045000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike45.00
Volume-
OI252
IV0.33
ContractDRD261120C00037500
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike37.50
Volume-
OI174
IV0.66
ContractDRD270219C00035000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI139
IV0.66
ContractDRD261120C00040000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike40.00
Volume-
OI128
IV0.41

Research Graph

Related research and context

Ticker deep links

Related News

No recent ticker-specific news yet.

Market Watch

No recent market-watch posts yet.

Earnings

No upcoming matched earnings event.

Evidence context