Ticker Options Intelligence

MFG options intelligence

Mizuho Financial Group Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 57 Market data through 11 Aug 2026 Checked 12 Aug 2026 11:23 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

MFG currently carries volatility options pressure with a 57/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.45.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 9.1%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.45

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.02

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +2.6%

RS 17.9

Expected move 9.1%
Put-call volume 0.02
Volume / OI 0.45
Reference IV 0.73
Max pain 10.00
Underlying 10.71
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 62

Research Brief

MFG has a volatility chain read with 57/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 9.73–11.69; The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 7.50. The most active strike by current volume is 7.50.

Priced range9.73–11.69
Call concentration12.50
Put concentration7.50
Max pain reference10.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 9.73 to 11.69. Max pain at 10.00 sits inside that range, 6.6% below spot.

Spot Max pain
9.7310.71 ± 0.9811.69
Confirmation level

A close beyond 11.69 or below 9.73 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 57/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation28 × 22%
+6.1

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility88 × 10%
+8.8

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score56.8Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 7.50. The most active strike by current volume is 7.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-76.7%
0
2
5.00-53.3%
0
21
7.50-30.0%
10
19
10.00-6.6%
44
1
12.5016.7%
302
0
15.0040.1%
3
0
17.5063.4%
2
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Balanced gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 97% coverage

Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.

Net profile+$1,646Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak12.50+$6,170
Negative peak10.00-$4,590
Nearest balance11.07Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50-76.7%
+$2
5.00-53.3%
+$21
7.50-30.0%
-$25
10.00-6.6%
-$4,590
12.5016.7%
+$6,170
15.0040.1%
+$66
17.5063.4%
+$3
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.79× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.73 21 Aug 10d
0.41 18 Sep 38d
0.44 16 Oct 66d
0.26 15 Jan 157d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

10
13
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
11 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
62 / 62
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

92/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $8,800 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+100
1W price+2.6%
Call premium99%
Put premium1%
Notional split C 99% / P 1% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.45 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 500 contracts traded, $8,750 estimated gross traded notional, and 99% of visible notional.
$8,750
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 10 contracts traded, $50 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$50

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

High anomaly

90

Current options activity is unusually hot versus this ticker's stored history.

Baseline: 10 completed sessions

Volume rank100th
Volume/OI rank100th
IV rank70th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close10.71
1W+2.6%
RS17.9
Fair value+94.1%
Options pressure100
Speculation28
Volatility88
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 9.1% near normal
30d avg 9.3% · 10 sessions 60th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
IV 0.73 near normal
30d avg 0.64 · 10 sessions 70th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.02 muted
30d avg 3.83 · 10 sessions 20th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.45 elevated
30d avg 0.06 · 10 sessions 100th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:02 Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 7.5%
30 Jul 10:01 Mixed
Pressure 15
Move 9.7%
30 Jul 22:18 Mixed
Pressure 16
Move 12.0%
31 Jul 10:13 Bullish
Pressure 50
Move 12.0%
31 Jul 14:34 Volatility
Pressure -51
Move 11.1%
31 Jul 20:56 Volatility
Pressure -48
Move 12.7%
1 Aug 11:37 Volatility
Pressure -71
Move 12.7%
1 Aug 15:27 Volatility
Pressure -48
Move 12.9%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 10 · OI 21
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 44
Puts · V 0 · OI 19
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 302
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts14
Avg IV0.73
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.41
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.44
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts16
Avg IV0.26
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.65
Skew0.10
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.41
Skew0.13
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.07
Skew-0.34
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.13
Put IV0.05
Skew-0.08

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractMFG261016C00012500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike12.50
Volume500
OI232
IV0.41
ContractMFG260821P00007500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike7.50
Volume10
OI21
IV0.97
ContractMFG260821C00012500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI302
IV0.55
ContractMFG260918P00010000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI175
IV0.41
ContractMFG261016P00007500
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI92
IV0.39
ContractMFG261016C00010000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI58
IV0.60
ContractMFG260821C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI44
IV0.68
ContractMFG261016C00007500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI41
IV0.53

Research Graph

Related research and context

Ticker deep links

Earnings

No upcoming matched earnings event.

Evidence context