Ticker Options Intelligence

ARM options intelligence

Name: Sharemaestro ARM Options Intent Radar
Creator: Sharemaestro
License: https://sharemaestro.com/data-license/

Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 40 Market data through 13 Aug 2026 Checked 13 Aug 2026 20:50 · partial chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

ARM currently carries mixed options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.12.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report

Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 3.4%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.12

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 1.13

Balanced tape

Trend fit 85

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +17.9%

RS 37.7

Expected move 3.4%

Put-call volume 1.13

Volume / OI 0.12

Reference IV 0.56

Max pain 270.00

Underlying 282.57

Nearest expiry 14 Aug 2026

Contracts 2000

Research Brief

ARM has a mixed chain read with 40/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 272.97–292.17; The largest call open-interest concentration is 310.00; the largest put concentration is 230.00. The most active strike by current volume is 300.00.

Priced range272.97–292.17

Call concentration310.00

Put concentration230.00

Max pain reference270.00

What would confirm it

A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.

What would weaken it

Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 14 Aug

Options imply 272.97 to 292.17. Max pain at 270.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain

272.97282.57 ± 9.60292.17

Confirmation level

A close beyond 292.17 or below 272.97 at the 14 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 40/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 8/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure8 × 42%

+3.2

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation43 × 22%

+9.4

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement85 × 26%

+22.1

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility53 × 10%

+5.3

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 310.00; the largest put concentration is 230.00. The most active strike by current volume is 300.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest

875

230.00-18.6%

848

250.00-11.5%

121

790

260.00-8.0%

274

270.00-4.4%

308

187

272.50-3.6%

217

129

275.00-2.7%

2030

176

280.00-0.9%

2075

285.000.9%

589

287.501.7%

251

208

290.002.6%

1079

295.004.4%

478

154

300.006.2%

2458

310.009.7%

2470

315.0011.5%

1393

350.0023.9%

2014

390.0038.0%

1076

400.0041.6%

1759

Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Model-estimated Greeks · 99% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$37.8MDelta change / 1% move

Positive peak300.00+$9.8M

Negative peak250.00-$2.4M

Nearest balance267.08Interpolated sign change

StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move

257.50-8.9%

-$103,365

260.00-8.0%

-$1.0M

262.50-7.1%

-$163,577

265.00-6.2%

-$364,379

267.50-5.3%

+$73,919

270.00-4.4%

+$919,345

272.50-3.6%

+$309,656

275.00-2.7%

+$4.8M

277.50-1.8%

+$781,979

280.00-0.9%

+$5.7M

282.500.0%

+$833,605

285.000.9%

+$2.0M

287.501.7%

+$762,167

290.002.6%

+$3.6M

292.503.5%

+$476,064

295.004.4%

+$792,197

297.505.3%

+$247,178

300.006.2%

+$9.8M

302.507.1%

+$150,643

305.007.9%

+$453,645

307.508.8%

+$41,052

Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.74× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.56 14 Aug 1d

0.69 21 Aug 8d

0.71 28 Aug 15d

0.73 4 Sep 22d

0.72 11 Sep 29d

0.73 18 Sep 36d

0.73 25 Sep 43d

0.74 16 Oct 64d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

228

233

238

245

250

255

260

265

273

278

283

288

293

300

305

310

315

320

328

333

338

Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

6 matured · 0 directional

6 stored transitions are available, but none had a directional bullish or bearish label.

Directional follow-through-

Moves contained by pricing33%

Average expiry move16.2%

6 Aug Volatility · 46 17.9% through expiry 19.6% priced · v2.0

5 Aug Volatility · 47 17.9% through expiry 14.5% priced · v2.0

4 Aug Volatility · 51 17.9% through expiry 18.3% priced · v2.0

3 Aug Volatility · 47 17.9% through expiry 9.2% priced · v2.0

31 Jul Volatility · 47 17.9% through expiry 10.5% priced · v2.0

30 Jul Mixed · 43 -7.8% through expiry 7.5% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Good

B79/100

Retained chain87%

Implied volatility100%

Two-sided quotes100%

Open interest100%

Chain status: Retained chain subset
Market date: 13 Aug 2026
Calculation: v2.0
Contracts: 2000 / 2288

87% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Put-heavy activity

62/100

Primary intent Put-heavy activity

Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $175.4M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-8

1W price+17.9%

Call premium35%

Put premium65%

Notional split C 35% / P 65% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.

Freshness 0.12 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.

Trend fit 85/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.

Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.

Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ITM

Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 3512 contracts traded, $66.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 38% of visible notional.

$66.6M

Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 7384 contracts traded, $20.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.

$20.6M

Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 889 contracts traded, $17.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.

$17.0M

Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 1064 contracts traded, $13.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.

$13.1M

Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 15532 contracts traded, $9.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.

$9.4M

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice

Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 12 completed sessions

Volume rank92th

Volume/OI rank83th

IV rank0th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly

Close282.57

1W+17.9%

RS37.7

Fair value+99.2%

Options pressure-8

Speculation43

Volatility53

Trend fit85

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history

Expected move 3.4% muted

30d avg 11.4% · 12 sessions 0th

90d avg - · 12/30 sessions -

180d avg - · 12/60 sessions -

IV 0.56 muted

30d avg 1.01 · 12 sessions 0th

90d avg - · 12/30 sessions -

180d avg - · 12/60 sessions -

Put-call 1.13 near normal

30d avg 1.20 · 12 sessions 33th

90d avg - · 12/30 sessions -

180d avg - · 12/60 sessions -

Volume/OI 0.12 elevated

30d avg 0.10 · 12 sessions 83th

90d avg - · 12/30 sessions -

180d avg - · 12/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail

6 Aug 03:39 Volatility

Pressure 14

Move 14.5%

6 Aug 16:00 Mixed

Pressure 0

Move 16.0%

6 Aug 17:40 Volatility

Pressure 4

Move 20.6%

6 Aug 19:20 Volatility

Pressure 2

Move 20.6%

6 Aug 21:15 Volatility

Pressure 2

Move 19.6%

7 Aug 14:30 Volatility

Pressure -21

Move 15.1%

7 Aug 16:00 Volatility

Pressure -6

Move 18.3%

7 Aug 17:20 Volatility

Pressure -4

Move 18.3%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map

Strike140.00

Calls · V 0 · OI 0

Puts · V 2 · OI 56

Strike145.00

Calls · V 0 · OI 0

Puts · V 1 · OI 191

Strike149.00

Calls · V 0 · OI 0

Puts · V 1 · OI 68

Strike150.00

Calls · V 10 · OI 10

Puts · V 7 · OI 307

Strike152.50

Calls · V 0 · OI 0

Puts · V 3 · OI 13

Strike155.00

Calls · V 0 · OI 0

Puts · V 15 · OI 258

Strike157.50

Calls · V 0 · OI 1

Puts · V 1 · OI 342

Strike160.00

Calls · V 1 · OI 1

Puts · V 1 · OI 156

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV

Expiry14 Aug 2026

Contracts199

Avg IV0.56

Put-call0.37

Expiry21 Aug 2026

Contracts207

Avg IV0.69

Put-call1.03

Expiry28 Aug 2026

Contracts120

Avg IV0.71

Put-call0.50

Expiry4 Sep 2026

Contracts102

Avg IV0.73

Put-call1.36

Expiry11 Sep 2026

Contracts73

Avg IV0.72

Put-call0.44

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand

14 Aug 2026Call IV premium

Call IV0.65

Put IV0.53

Skew-0.11

21 Aug 2026Call IV premium

Call IV0.73

Put IV0.65

Skew-0.08

28 Aug 2026Call IV premium

Call IV0.74

Put IV0.69

Skew-0.05

4 Sep 2026Call IV premium

Call IV0.77

Put IV0.70

Skew-0.07

11 Sep 2026Call IV premium

Call IV0.77

Put IV0.69

Skew-0.08

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape

ContractARM270319P00550000

SidePut

Expiry19 Mar 2027

Strike550.00

Volume-

OI20

IV0.91

ContractARM260904C00165000

SideCall

Expiry4 Sep 2026

Strike165.00

Volume-

OI19

IV1.17

ContractARM260904C00170000

SideCall

Expiry4 Sep 2026

Strike170.00

Volume-

OI19

IV1.25

ContractARM271217P00460000

SidePut

Expiry17 Dec 2027

Strike460.00

Volume-

OI17

IV0.66

ContractARM270115P00580000

SidePut

Expiry15 Jan 2027

Strike580.00

Volume-

OI10

IV0.95

ContractARM261218P00490000

SidePut

Expiry18 Dec 2026

Strike490.00

Volume-

OI6

IV0.90

ContractARM261218P00660000

SidePut

Expiry18 Dec 2026

Strike660.00

Volume-

OI5

IV0.66

ContractARM261218P00460000

SidePut

Expiry18 Dec 2026

Strike460.00

Volume-

OI5

IV0.92

ARM options intelligence

Mixed pressure

ARM has a mixed chain read with 40/100 evidence alignment.

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Why conviction is 40/100

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Positive gamma proxy

Back-loaded volatility

Upside optionality premium

How matured reads behaved through expiry

Good

Put-heavy activity

Opportunity and risk frame

Normal range

Underlying confirmation

Stored-options context

Recent pressure and volatility

Where activity is clustering

Expiration activity

Call/put IV balance

Most active contracts

Send a message

Evidence context

ARM options intelligence

Mixed pressure

ARM has a mixed chain read with 40/100 evidence alignment.

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Why conviction is 40/100

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Positive gamma proxy

Back-loaded volatility

Upside optionality premium

How matured reads behaved through expiry

Good

Put-heavy activity

Opportunity and risk frame

Normal range

Underlying confirmation

Stored-options context

Recent pressure and volatility

Where activity is clustering

Expiration activity

Call/put IV balance

Most active contracts

Related research and context

Sharemaestro research

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