Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
CB options intelligence
Chubb Ltd options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
44
Market data through 11 Aug 2026
Checked 12 Aug 2026 11:24 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
CB currently carries bearish options pressure with a 44/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
2.6%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.77
Put-side skew
Trend fit
86
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-0.1%
RS 0.6
Expected move
2.6%
Put-call volume
1.77
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.21
Max pain
340.00
Underlying
350.31
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
940
Research Brief
CB has a bearish chain read with 44/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 341.16–359.46; The largest call open-interest concentration is 375.00; the largest put concentration is 315.00. The most active strike by current volume is 355.00.
Priced range341.16–359.46
Call concentration375.00
Put concentration315.00
Max pain reference340.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 341.16 to 359.46. Max pain at 340.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
341.16350.31 ± 9.15359.46
Confirmation level
A close beyond 359.46 or below 341.16 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 44/100
Pressure is 23/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure23 × 42%
+9.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation40 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement86 × 26%
+22.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility25 × 10%
+2.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 375.00; the largest put concentration is 315.00. The most active strike by current volume is 355.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
175
275.00-21.5%
1
281
300.00-14.4%
27
314
310.00-11.5%
14
510
315.00-10.1%
14
149
320.00-8.7%
48
113
330.00-5.8%
216
154
335.00-4.4%
143
162
340.00-2.9%
369
204
345.00-1.5%
296
140
350.00-0.1%
674
193
355.001.3%
1623
174
360.002.8%
558
33
365.004.2%
384
67
370.005.6%
276
2
375.007.0%
3786
0
380.008.5%
301
0
405.0015.6%
229
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$16.3MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak355.00+$4.7M
Negative peak335.00-$669,814
Nearest balance345.44Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
300.00-14.4%
-$346,521
305.00-12.9%
-$59,352
310.00-11.5%
-$534,413
315.00-10.1%
-$210,742
320.00-8.7%
+$212,022
325.00-7.2%
-$259,505
330.00-5.8%
+$45,204
335.00-4.4%
-$669,814
340.00-2.9%
+$1.3M
345.00-1.5%
-$219,669
350.00-0.1%
+$2.3M
355.001.3%
+$4.7M
360.002.8%
+$2.7M
365.004.2%
+$2.2M
370.005.6%
+$1.7M
375.007.0%
+$1.0M
380.008.5%
+$708,737
385.009.9%
+$315,115
390.0011.3%
+$839,272
395.0012.8%
+$12,306
400.0014.2%
+$520,125
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.21
21 Aug
10d
0.20
18 Sep
38d
0.21
16 Oct
66d
0.22
20 Nov
101d
0.22
18 Dec
129d
0.22
15 Jan
157d
0.23
19 Feb
192d
0.23
19 Mar
220d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
285
290
300
305
310
320
325
330
340
345
355
360
365
375
380
385
395
400
405
415
420
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 11 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 940 / 940
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Put-side pressure is present before a decisive weekly price breakdown.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $758,413 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bearish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-23
1W price-0.1%
Call premium69%
Put premium31%
Notional split
C 69% / P 31%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
86/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 58 contracts traded, $447,470 estimated gross traded notional, and 59% of visible notional.
$447,470
Puts · 46-90 days · ATM
puts cluster with 129 contracts traded, $144,920 estimated gross traded notional, and 19% of visible notional.
$144,920
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 136 contracts traded, $67,230 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$67,230
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 23 contracts traded, $38,392 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$38,392
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $9,525 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$9,525
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Activity Anomaly
Quiet tape
Activity is muted versus this ticker's stored history.
Baseline: 10 completed sessions
Volume rank0th
Volume/OI rank0th
IV rank30th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close350.31
1W-0.1%
RS0.6
Fair value+28.3%
Options pressure-23
Speculation40
Volatility25
Trend fit86
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 3.9% · 10 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.22 · 10 sessions
30th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 1.00 · 10 sessions
80th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.02 · 10 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:01
Bullish
Pressure 31
Move 4.6%
30 Jul 10:01
Bullish
Pressure 47
Move 4.4%
31 Jul 10:00
Bullish
Pressure 30
Move 4.6%
3 Aug 13:08
Bearish
Pressure -51
Move 4.2%
4 Aug 10:03
Bullish
Pressure 20
Move 3.8%
5 Aug 10:05
Bullish
Pressure 64
Move 4.2%
6 Aug 10:03
Bullish
Pressure 63
Move 3.9%
7 Aug 10:25
Bearish
Pressure -26
Move 3.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike210.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike215.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike220.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike225.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 9
Strike230.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 14
Strike235.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 18
Strike240.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike245.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 170
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts88
Avg IV0.21
Put-call0.11
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts118
Avg IV0.20
Put-call0.78
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts104
Avg IV0.21
Put-call72.50
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts92
Avg IV0.22
Put-call6.00
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts112
Avg IV0.22
Put-call0.25
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.25
Skew0.01
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.20
Skew-0.01
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.22
Skew0.02
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.23
Skew0.02
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.23
Skew0.02
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCB270115P00300000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike300.00
Volume102
OI484
IV0.24
ContractCB261016P00345000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike345.00
Volume84
OI75
IV0.21
ContractCB261016P00350000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike350.00
Volume44
OI6
IV0.22
ContractCB270219C00285000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike285.00
Volume31
OI-
IV0.26
ContractCB260821C00355000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike355.00
Volume27
OI1623
IV0.24
ContractCB260821C00375000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike375.00
Volume26
OI3786
IV0.17
ContractCB270219C00265000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike265.00
Volume14
OI4
IV0.27
ContractCB261218C00400000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike400.00
Volume11
OI68
IV0.21
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.