Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
BTE options intelligence
Baytex Energy Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
54
Market data through 12 Aug 2026
Checked 12 Aug 2026 22:45 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
BTE currently carries volatility options pressure with a 54/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 15.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.
Expected move
15.9%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.04
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.03
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-8.3%
RS 6.6
Expected move
15.9%
Put-call volume
0.03
Volume / OI
0.04
Reference IV
2.20
Max pain
2.50
Underlying
4.18
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
18
Research Brief
BTE has a volatility chain read with 54/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 3.51–4.85; The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 5.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00.
Priced range3.51–4.85
Call concentration5.00
Put concentration5.00
Max pain reference2.50
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 3.51 to 4.85. Max pain at 2.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
3.514.18 ± 0.674.85
Confirmation level
A close beyond 4.85 or below 3.51 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 54/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation9 × 22%
+2.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 5.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-40.2%
9
6
5.0019.6%
962
0
7.5079.4%
4
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$37,140Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak5.00+$33,497
Negative peak-No negative strike
Nearest balance-Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50-40.2%
+$1,245
5.0019.6%
+$33,497
7.5079.4%
+$2,398
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
2.20
21 Aug
9d
1.06
18 Sep
37d
0.82
16 Oct
65d
0.64
15 Jan
156d
Volatility by Strike
Smile incomplete
There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.
5
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 12 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 18 / 18
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $5,362 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+100
1W price-8.3%
Call premium93%
Put premium7%
Notional split
C 93% / P 7%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.04
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 137 contracts traded, $1,935 estimated gross traded notional, and 36% of visible notional.
$1,935
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 115 contracts traded, $1,400 estimated gross traded notional, and 26% of visible notional.
$1,400
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 19 contracts traded, $590 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$590
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 115 contracts traded, $466 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$466
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $205 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$205
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
High anomaly
Current options activity is unusually hot versus this ticker's stored history.
Baseline: 10 completed sessions
Volume rank90th
Volume/OI rank90th
IV rank100th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close4.18
1W-8.3%
RS6.6
Fair value+35.0%
Options pressure100
Speculation9
Volatility96
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 17.9% · 10 sessions
40th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 1.01 · 10 sessions
100th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.08 · 10 sessions
70th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.02 · 10 sessions
90th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:51
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 20.8%
30 Jul 10:42
Bullish
Pressure 53
Move 19.7%
30 Jul 15:23
Volatility
Pressure 66
Move 19.1%
30 Jul 15:40
Volatility
Pressure 66
Move 19.1%
2 Aug 01:48
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 15.9%
4 Aug 10:15
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 13.2%
5 Aug 10:51
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 10.4%
6 Aug 11:00
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 21.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike2.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 9
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 114 · OI 962
Puts · V 1 · OI 6
Strike7.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts4
Avg IV2.20
Put-call0.01
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts4
Avg IV1.06
Put-call0.01
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV0.82
Put-call0.07
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts4
Avg IV0.64
Put-call0.05
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.66
Put IV-
Skew-
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.59
Put IV-
Skew-
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.57
Put IV1.05
Skew0.49
15 Jan 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV0.51
Put IV-
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractBTE261016P00007500
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI1
IV0.85
ContractBTE260918C00002500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI1
IV1.19
ContractBTE261016C00005000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike5.00
Volume125
OI4152
IV0.57
ContractBTE260821C00005000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume114
OI962
IV0.66
ContractBTE260918C00005000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike5.00
Volume111
OI296
IV0.59
ContractBTE270115C00005000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike5.00
Volume18
OI1260
IV0.51
ContractBTE261016C00007500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike7.50
Volume12
OI1429
IV0.71
ContractBTE261016P00002500
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike2.50
Volume8
OI15
IV1.05
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.