Ticker Options Intelligence

TFSL options intelligence

TFS Financial Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 49 Market data through 12 Aug 2026 Checked 12 Aug 2026 17:18 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

TFSL currently carries bullish options pressure with a 49/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.19.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 3.7%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.19

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.47

Call-side skew

Trend fit 49

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -4.5%

RS 8.3

Expected move 3.7%
Put-call volume 0.47
Volume / OI 0.19
Reference IV 1.11
Max pain 17.50
Underlying 17.59
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 34

Research Brief

TFSL has a bullish chain read with 49/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 16.94–18.24; The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.50; the largest put concentration is 17.50. The most active strike by current volume is 17.50.

Priced range16.94–18.24
Call concentration17.50
Put concentration17.50
Max pain reference17.50
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
  • Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 16.94 to 18.24. Max pain at 17.50 sits inside that range, 0.5% below spot.

Spot Max pain
16.9417.59 ± 0.6518.24
Confirmation level

A close beyond 18.24 or below 16.94 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 49/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 46/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure46 × 42%
+19.1

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation44 × 22%
+9.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement49 × 26%
+12.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility71 × 10%
+7.1

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score48.7Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 17.50; the largest put concentration is 17.50. The most active strike by current volume is 17.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
15.00-14.7%
3
59
17.50-0.5%
42
0
20.0013.7%
15
0
22.5027.9%
3
1
25.0042.1%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Model-estimated Greeks · 100% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$33,961Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak15.00+$26,734
Negative peak12.50-$376
Nearest balance12.53Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50-85.8%
+$1
12.50-28.9%
-$376
15.00-14.7%
+$26,734
17.50-0.5%
+$4,217
20.0013.7%
+$3,342
22.5027.9%
+$58
25.0042.1%
-$14
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.75× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.11 21 Aug 9d
0.60 18 Sep 37d
0.68 16 Oct 65d
0.40 15 Jan 156d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

15
18
20
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A96/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
12 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
34 / 34
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

66/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $98,812 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+46
1W price-4.5%
Call premium91%
Put premium9%
Notional split C 91% / P 9% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.19 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 49/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 101 contracts traded, $46,876 estimated gross traded notional, and 47% of visible notional.
$46,876
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 116 contracts traded, $40,320 estimated gross traded notional, and 41% of visible notional.
$40,320
Puts · 22-45 days · ATM puts cluster with 60 contracts traded, $4,050 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$4,050
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $2,680 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$2,680
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM puts cluster with 42 contracts traded, $1,050 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$1,050

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

High anomaly

100

Current options activity is unusually hot versus this ticker's stored history.

Baseline: 10 completed sessions

Volume rank100th
Volume/OI rank100th
IV rank100th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close17.59
1W-4.5%
RS8.3
Fair value+44.5%
Options pressure46
Speculation44
Volatility71
Trend fit49

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 3.7% muted
30d avg 7.9% · 10 sessions 0th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
IV 1.11 elevated
30d avg 0.37 · 10 sessions 100th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.47 elevated
30d avg 2.83 · 10 sessions 80th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.19 elevated
30d avg 0.02 · 10 sessions 100th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:42 Bullish
Pressure 58
Move 7.7%
30 Jul 10:38 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 9.9%
31 Jul 10:24 Bullish
Pressure 53
Move 9.6%
2 Aug 01:20 Bullish
Pressure 65
Move 11.3%
4 Aug 10:15 Bullish
Pressure 54
Move 9.0%
5 Aug 10:50 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 8.4%
6 Aug 11:00 Bullish
Pressure 88
Move 7.3%
7 Aug 12:43 Mixed
Pressure -1
Move 5.8%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike15.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 42
Puts · V 42 · OI 59
Strike20.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 15
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.50
Calls · V 6 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 1

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts7
Avg IV1.11
Put-call3.91
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts3
Avg IV0.60
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts10
Avg IV0.68
Put-call0.06
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts14
Avg IV0.40
Put-call0.07

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.62
Skew0.06
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.60
Put IV0.45
Skew-0.15
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.68
Put IV0.44
Skew-0.24
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.72
Skew0.36

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractTFSL260918P00020000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.76
ContractTFSL270115P00017500
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI3
IV0.72
ContractTFSL260918C00020000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.60
ContractTFSL261016P00015000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.51
ContractTFSL260821P00020000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI-
IV1.29
ContractTFSL270115C00025000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.13
ContractTFSL261016C00015000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike15.00
Volume100
OI1081
IV0.37
ContractTFSL260918P00017500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike17.50
Volume60
OI60
IV0.45

Evidence context