Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
UBEW options intelligence
ROUNDHILL UBER WEEKLYPAY ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
66
Market data through 25 Aug 2026
Checked 25 Aug 2026 17:20 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
UBEW currently carries volatility options pressure with a 66/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 38.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 13.82.
Expected move
38.6%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
13.82
Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest
Put-call
151.00
Put-side skew
Trend fit
1
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+4.6%
Sharemaestro weekly context
Expected move
38.6%
Put-call volume
151.00
Volume / OI
13.82
Reference IV
1.50
Max pain
40.00
Underlying
28.76
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
12
Research Brief
UBEW has a volatility chain read with 66/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 17.67–39.85; The largest call open-interest concentration is 25.00; the largest put concentration is 40.00. The most active strike by current volume is 25.00.
Priced range17.67–39.85
Call concentration25.00
Put concentration40.00
Max pain reference40.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 17.67 to 39.85. Max pain at 40.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
17.6728.76 ± 11.0939.85
Confirmation level
A close beyond 39.85 or below 17.67 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 66/100
Pressure is 99/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure99 × 42%
+41.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation66 × 22%
+14.5
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement1 × 26%
+0.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 25.00; the largest put concentration is 40.00. The most active strike by current volume is 25.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
25.00-13.1%
0
0
30.004.3%
0
1
40.0039.1%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Negative gamma proxy
Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile-$304Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak-No positive strike
Negative peak27.00-$283
Nearest balance-Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
27.00-6.1%
-$283
40.0039.1%
-$21
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.50
18 Sep
24d
0.63
18 Dec
115d
0.62
19 Mar
206d
Volatility by Strike
Smile incomplete
There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.
25
30
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 3 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 33% of the time.
Directional follow-through33%
Moves contained by pricing14%
Average expiry move9.4%
20 Aug
Bearish · 48
3.6% through expiry
2.1% priced · v2.0
18 Aug
Volatility · 66
3.6% through expiry
8.7% priced · v2.0
17 Aug
Mixed · 30
3.6% through expiry
2.2% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Mixed · 34
11.7% through expiry
7.8% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Bullish · 48
11.7% through expiry
7.9% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Mixed · 33
11.7% through expiry
6.8% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Bearish · 45
19.8% through expiry
4.5% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 25 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 12 / 12
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $60,772 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-99
1W price+4.6%
Call premium1%
Put premium99%
Notional split
C 1% / P 99%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
13.82
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
1/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 50 contracts traded, $26,050 estimated gross traded notional, and 43% of visible notional.
$26,050
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 80 contracts traded, $25,725 estimated gross traded notional, and 42% of visible notional.
$25,725
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 20 contracts traded, $8,050 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$8,050
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM
puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $590 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$590
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $358 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$358
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Participation is active enough to treat follow-through risk carefully.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
High anomaly
Current options activity is unusually hot versus this ticker's stored history.
Baseline: 10 completed sessions
Volume rank100th
Volume/OI rank100th
IV rank100th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close28.76
1W+4.6%
RS-
Fair value-5.7%
Options pressure-99
Speculation66
Volatility96
Trend fit1
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 6.0% · 10 sessions
100th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.34 · 10 sessions
100th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.33 · 10 sessions
100th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 13:18
Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 4.9%
30 Jul 13:07
Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 6.1%
31 Jul 12:43
Bearish
Pressure -100
Move 4.5%
3 Aug 11:33
Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 6.8%
4 Aug 12:43
Bullish
Pressure 88
Move 7.9%
5 Aug 13:06
Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 7.8%
17 Aug 16:05
Volatility
Pressure -100
Move 9.3%
18 Aug 03:20
Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 2.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike25.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts3
Avg IV1.50
Put-call1.00
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts5
Avg IV0.63
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts4
Avg IV0.62
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV-
Put IV-
Skew-
18 Dec 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV-
Put IV0.68
Skew-
19 Mar 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV-
Put IV0.63
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractUBEW260918P00040000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike40.00
Volume-
OI1
IV1.97
ContractUBEW261218P00031000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike31.00
Volume30
OI-
IV0.64
ContractUBEW270319P00024000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike24.00
Volume30
OI-
IV0.60
ContractUBEW261218P00030000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike30.00
Volume20
OI-
IV0.62
ContractUBEW261218P00029000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike29.00
Volume20
OI-
IV0.60
ContractUBEW261218P00027000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike27.00
Volume10
OI10
IV0.68
ContractUBEW270319P00027000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike27.00
Volume10
OI-
IV0.63
ContractUBEW261218P00028000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike28.00
Volume10
OI-
IV0.59
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.