Ticker Options Intelligence

XFOR options intelligence

X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 54 Market data through 12 Aug 2026 Checked 13 Aug 2026 13:25 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

XFOR currently carries volatility options pressure with a 54/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 10.9%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.00

Call-side skew

Trend fit 6

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +16.6%

RS 6.3

Expected move 10.9%
Put-call volume -
Volume / OI 0.00
Reference IV 0.69
Max pain 2.50
Underlying 4.64
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 24

Research Brief

XFOR has a volatility chain read with 54/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 4.14–5.14; The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50.

Priced range4.14–5.14
Call concentration5.00
Put concentration2.50
Max pain reference2.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 4.14 to 5.14. Max pain at 2.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
4.144.64 ± 0.505.14
Confirmation level

A close beyond 5.14 or below 4.14 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 54/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation7 × 22%
+1.6

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement6 × 26%
+1.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility89 × 10%
+8.9

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score54.1Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
6
2.50-46.1%
0
0
5.007.8%
14
0
7.5061.6%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported Greeks · 100% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$18,697Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak5.00+$18,651
Negative peak-No negative strike
Nearest balance-Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50-46.1%
+$21
5.007.8%
+$18,651
7.5061.6%
+$25
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.78× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.69 21 Aug 9d
0.49 18 Sep 37d
1.13 18 Dec 128d
0.89 19 Mar 219d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

5
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
12 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
24 / 24
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

83/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2,695 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+100
1W price+16.6%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 100% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 6/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 14 Aug Matched earnings event is 1 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $2,625 estimated gross traded notional, and 97% of visible notional.
$2,625
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $70 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$70

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

61

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 11 completed sessions

Volume rank82th
Volume/OI rank82th
IV rank18th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close4.64
1W+16.6%
RS6.3
Fair value-68.2%
Options pressure100
Speculation7
Volatility89
Trend fit6

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 10.9% muted
30d avg 32.1% · 11 sessions 0th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions -
IV 0.69 muted
30d avg 1.34 · 11 sessions 18th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 6/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 6/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 elevated
30d avg 0.00 · 11 sessions 82th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:28 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 22.0%
30 Jul 11:13 Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 18.0%
31 Jul 05:46 Volatility
Pressure 62
Move 34.7%
31 Jul 17:05 Volatility
Pressure 51
Move 25.5%
2 Aug 11:02 Volatility
Pressure -88
Move 65.3%
4 Aug 12:45 Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 18.8%
5 Aug 11:31 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 16.8%
5 Aug 23:32 Volatility
Pressure 53
Move 122.2%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 14
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV0.69
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV0.49
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV1.13
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts6
Avg IV0.89
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.60
Put IV1.81
Skew1.21
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.89
Skew0.60
18 Dec 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.92
Put IV0.49
Skew-0.43
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.38
Skew0.04

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractXFOR261218C00002500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike2.50
Volume10
OI11
IV2.11
ContractXFOR261218C00005000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike5.00
Volume1
OI5064
IV0.92
ContractXFOR270319C00002500
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI23
IV1.77
ContractXFOR261218C00007500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI18
IV2.49
ContractXFOR260821C00005000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI14
IV0.60
ContractXFOR260821P00002500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI6
IV1.81
ContractXFOR260918P00002500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI2
IV0.89
ContractXFOR260918C00007500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI2
IV0.83

Evidence context