Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
KMEM options intelligence
Kurv Memory Select ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
60
Market data through 21 Sep 2026
Checked 22 Sep 2026 11:45 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
KMEM currently carries volatility options pressure with a 60/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 12.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 36.67.
Expected move
12.6%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
36.67
Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.75
Put-side skew
Trend fit
94
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+0.5%
Sharemaestro weekly context
Expected move
12.6%
Put-call volume
1.75
Volume / OI
36.67
Reference IV
0.54
Max pain
13.00
Underlying
19.91
Nearest expiry
16 Oct 2026
Contracts
108
Research Brief
KMEM has a volatility chain read with 60/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 17.41–22.41; The largest call open-interest concentration is 13.00; the largest put concentration is 13.00. The most active strike by current volume is 13.00.
Priced range17.41–22.41
Call concentration13.00
Put concentration13.00
Max pain reference13.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 17.41 to 22.41. Max pain at 13.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
17.4119.91 ± 2.5022.41
Confirmation level
A close beyond 22.41 or below 17.41 at the 16 Oct expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 60/100
Pressure is 15/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure15 × 42%
+6.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation98 × 22%
+21.6
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement94 × 26%
+24.5
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility78 × 10%
+7.8
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 13.00; the largest put concentration is 13.00. The most active strike by current volume is 13.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
13.00-34.7%
0
0
14.00-29.7%
0
0
15.00-24.7%
0
0
16.00-19.6%
0
0
17.00-14.6%
0
0
18.00-9.6%
0
0
19.00-4.6%
0
0
20.000.5%
0
0
21.005.5%
0
0
22.0010.5%
0
0
23.0015.5%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$74Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak20.00+$47
Negative peak-No negative strike
Nearest balance-Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
20.000.5%
+$47
22.0010.5%
+$27
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.54
16 Oct
25d
0.60
20 Nov
60d
0.58
18 Dec
88d
0.60
19 Mar
179d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 2 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 100% of the time.
Directional follow-through100%
Moves contained by pricing71%
Average expiry move2.6%
17 Sep
Mixed · 30
0.5% through expiry
2.7% priced · v2.0
15 Sep
Mixed · 33
0.5% through expiry
13.8% priced · v2.0
11 Sep
Bullish · 55
0.5% through expiry
3.0% priced · v2.0
9 Sep
Mixed · 29
0.2% through expiry
4.6% priced · v2.0
4 Sep
Bullish · 50
0.2% through expiry
4.2% priced · v2.0
1 Sep
Mixed · 31
8.3% through expiry
4.7% priced · v2.0
28 Aug
Mixed · 30
8.3% through expiry
5.4% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 21 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 108 / 108
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $28,550 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-15
1W price+0.5%
Call premium33%
Put premium67%
Notional split
C 33% / P 67%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
36.67
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
94/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 40 contracts traded, $10,700 estimated gross traded notional, and 37% of visible notional.
$10,700
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 40 contracts traded, $9,550 estimated gross traded notional, and 33% of visible notional.
$9,550
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 10 contracts traded, $4,300 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$4,300
Puts · 46-90 days · ATM
puts cluster with 20 contracts traded, $4,000 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$4,000
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Participation is active enough to treat follow-through risk carefully.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
7 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 7 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close19.91
1W+0.5%
RS-
Fair value+5.9%
Options pressure-15
Speculation98
Volatility78
Trend fit94
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 7/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 7/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 7/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 7/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 7/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 7/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 6/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 6/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
31 Aug 13:19
Mixed
Pressure 0
Move 5.4%
2 Sep 13:00
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 4.7%
8 Sep 10:07
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 4.2%
9 Sep 14:36
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 14.1%
10 Sep 05:24
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 4.6%
13 Sep 23:24
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 3.0%
16 Sep 10:06
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 13.8%
18 Sep 10:04
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 2.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike13.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike14.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike16.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike18.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike19.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.54
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.60
Put-call1.00
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.58
Put-call2.00
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts22
Avg IV0.60
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.56
Put IV0.60
Skew0.04
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.59
Put IV0.62
Skew0.03
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.58
Put IV0.61
Skew0.03
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.58
Put IV0.62
Skew0.04
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractKMEM261218C00020000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike20.00
Volume20
OI1
IV0.51
ContractKMEM261218P00022000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike22.00
Volume20
OI-
IV0.62
ContractKMEM261218P00020000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike20.00
Volume20
OI-
IV0.60
ContractKMEM261120P00021000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike21.00
Volume20
OI-
IV0.60
ContractKMEM261120C00020000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike20.00
Volume20
OI-
IV0.59
ContractKMEM270319P00022000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike22.00
Volume10
OI-
IV0.65
ContractKMEM261218C00022000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike22.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.58
ContractKMEM270319C00020000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.58
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.