Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
WSO options intelligence
Watsco Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
55
Market data through 12 Aug 2026
Checked 12 Aug 2026 17:18 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
WSO currently carries volatility options pressure with a 55/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 7.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.07.
Expected move
7.8%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.07
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
2.19
Put-side skew
Trend fit
98
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+6.7%
RS -22.2
Expected move
7.8%
Put-call volume
2.19
Volume / OI
0.07
Reference IV
0.59
Max pain
320.00
Underlying
330.10
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
168
Research Brief
WSO has a volatility chain read with 55/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 304.22–355.98; The largest call open-interest concentration is 320.00; the largest put concentration is 330.00. The most active strike by current volume is 210.00.
Priced range304.22–355.98
Call concentration320.00
Put concentration330.00
Max pain reference320.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 304.22 to 355.98. Max pain at 320.00 sits inside that range, 3.1% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
304.22330.10 ± 25.88355.98
Confirmation level
A close beyond 355.98 or below 304.22 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 55/100
Pressure is 31/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure31 × 42%
+12.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement98 × 26%
+25.5
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility73 × 10%
+7.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 320.00; the largest put concentration is 330.00. The most active strike by current volume is 210.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
19
200.00-39.4%
0
16
210.00-36.4%
0
0
230.00-30.3%
0
17
240.00-27.3%
0
23
260.00-21.2%
0
23
280.00-15.2%
1
19
290.00-12.1%
0
40
300.00-9.1%
3
14
310.00-6.1%
926
27
320.00-3.1%
941
819
330.000.0%
11
16
340.003.0%
6
21
350.006.0%
49
800
370.0012.1%
10
0
400.0021.2%
45
0
420.0027.2%
21
0
440.0033.3%
20
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$2.3MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak310.00+$1.8M
Negative peak330.00-$1.3M
Nearest balance325.43Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
240.00-27.3%
-$2,858
250.00-24.3%
-$3,525
260.00-21.2%
-$9,077
270.00-18.2%
-$8,381
280.00-15.2%
-$18,422
290.00-12.1%
-$21,313
300.00-9.1%
+$571,830
310.00-6.1%
+$1.8M
320.00-3.1%
+$1.6M
330.000.0%
-$1.3M
340.003.0%
+$38,952
350.006.0%
+$66,637
360.009.1%
+$61,761
370.0012.1%
-$554,232
380.0015.1%
+$756
390.0018.1%
+$20,171
400.0021.2%
+$21,807
410.0024.2%
+$2,481
420.0027.2%
+$12,553
430.0030.3%
+$22,114
440.0033.3%
+$10,497
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.59
21 Aug
9d
0.42
18 Sep
37d
0.32
20 Nov
100d
0.33
19 Feb
191d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes98%
Open interest98%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 12 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 168 / 168
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $782,538 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-31
1W price+6.7%
Call premium24%
Put premium76%
Notional split
C 24% / P 76%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.07
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
98/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 37 contracts traded, $256,080 estimated gross traded notional, and 33% of visible notional.
$256,080
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 25 contracts traded, $172,910 estimated gross traded notional, and 22% of visible notional.
$172,910
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 65 contracts traded, $68,663 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$68,663
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $59,165 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$59,165
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 11 contracts traded, $41,345 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$41,345
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
High anomaly
Current options activity is unusually hot versus this ticker's stored history.
Baseline: 11 completed sessions
Volume rank91th
Volume/OI rank91th
IV rank100th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close330.10
1W+6.7%
RS-22.2
Fair value-19.9%
Options pressure-31
Speculation42
Volatility73
Trend fit98
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 8.5% · 11 sessions
55th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.38 · 11 sessions
100th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 2.76 · 11 sessions
73th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.03 · 11 sessions
91th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:22
Bearish
Pressure -76
Move 9.5%
30 Jul 10:16
Mixed
Pressure 0
Move 12.1%
31 Jul 08:47
Bearish
Pressure -23
Move 13.8%
1 Aug 05:51
Mixed
Pressure 4
Move 14.4%
2 Aug 14:34
Mixed
Pressure 4
Move 7.1%
4 Aug 10:05
Bullish
Pressure 65
Move 7.3%
5 Aug 10:13
Bullish
Pressure 87
Move 10.7%
6 Aug 10:13
Volatility
Pressure -56
Move 10.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike190.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 13 · OI 0
Strike195.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike200.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 37 · OI 19
Strike210.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 62 · OI 16
Strike220.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike230.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 42 · OI 0
Strike240.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 3 · OI 17
Strike250.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 3 · OI 5
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts55
Avg IV0.59
Put-call3.55
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts23
Avg IV0.42
Put-call2.84
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts51
Avg IV0.32
Put-call0.82
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts39
Avg IV0.33
Put-call0.96
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.66
Put IV0.50
Skew-0.16
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.40
Skew-0.06
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.43
Skew0.01
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.42
Skew0.02
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractWSO270219C00380000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike380.00
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractWSO270219C00200000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike200.00
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractWSO270219P00270000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike270.00
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractWSO270219P00320000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike320.00
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractWSO270219C00390000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike390.00
Volume-
OI41
IV0.40
ContractWSO261120P00200000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike200.00
Volume-
OI25
IV0.61
ContractWSO270219P00210000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike210.00
Volume-
OI17
IV0.58
ContractWSO261120P00480000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike480.00
Volume-
OI14
IV0.00
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.