Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
ITW options intelligence
Illinois Tool Works Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
55
Market data through 17 Sep 2026
Checked 18 Sep 2026 11:43 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
ITW currently carries bullish options pressure with a 55/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 1.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.23.
Expected move
1.3%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.23
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.03
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-0.7%
RS -6.3
Expected move
1.3%
Put-call volume
0.03
Volume / OI
0.23
Reference IV
0.39
Max pain
270.00
Underlying
268.16
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
360
Research Brief
ITW has a bullish chain read with 55/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 264.76–271.56; The largest call open-interest concentration is 280.00; the largest put concentration is 240.00. The most active strike by current volume is 270.00.
Priced range264.76–271.56
Call concentration280.00
Put concentration240.00
Max pain reference270.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 264.76 to 271.56. Max pain at 270.00 sits inside that range, 0.7% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
264.76268.16 ± 3.40271.56
Confirmation level
A close beyond 271.56 or below 264.76 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 55/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation45 × 22%
+10.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility32 × 10%
+3.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 280.00; the largest put concentration is 240.00. The most active strike by current volume is 270.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
16
200.00-25.4%
1
24
210.00-21.7%
0
51
220.00-18.0%
20
56
230.00-14.2%
2
124
240.00-10.5%
5
87
250.00-6.8%
9
100
260.00-3.0%
36
85
270.000.7%
69
38
280.004.4%
2530
7
290.008.1%
425
0
300.0011.9%
412
0
310.0015.6%
239
0
320.0019.3%
100
0
330.0023.1%
5
0
340.0026.8%
810
0
350.0030.5%
6
0
380.0041.7%
5
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$2.4MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak280.00+$870,173
Negative peak250.00-$216,899
Nearest balance261.99Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
180.00-32.9%
-$99
185.00-31.0%
-$182
190.00-29.1%
-$440
195.00-27.3%
-$288
200.00-25.4%
-$2,810
210.00-21.7%
-$8,422
220.00-18.0%
-$41,805
230.00-14.2%
-$32,843
240.00-10.5%
-$35,740
250.00-6.8%
-$216,899
260.00-3.0%
-$189,331
270.000.7%
+$762,793
280.004.4%
+$870,173
290.008.1%
+$630,042
300.0011.9%
+$206,081
310.0015.6%
+$398,781
320.0019.3%
+$15,860
330.0023.1%
+$15,397
340.0026.8%
+$16,736
350.0030.5%
+$284
360.0034.2%
+$2,679
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.39
18 Sep
1d
0.21
16 Oct
29d
0.23
20 Nov
64d
0.23
18 Dec
92d
0.22
15 Jan
120d
0.22
19 Mar
183d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 12 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 17% of the time.
Directional follow-through17%
Moves contained by pricing31%
Average expiry move3.1%
21 Aug
Bullish · 52
-2.9% through expiry
2.8% priced · v2.0
20 Aug
Bearish · 39
-2.9% through expiry
2.5% priced · v2.0
19 Aug
Bullish · 39
-2.9% through expiry
1.9% priced · v2.0
18 Aug
Bullish · 40
-2.9% through expiry
2.0% priced · v2.0
17 Aug
Bullish · 41
-2.9% through expiry
2.1% priced · v2.0
14 Aug
Bullish · 36
-2.9% through expiry
2.2% priced · v2.0
13 Aug
Mixed · 21
-4.8% through expiry
3.8% priced · v2.0
12 Aug
Mixed · 22
-4.8% through expiry
3.4% priced · v2.0
11 Aug
Mixed · 30
-4.8% through expiry
3.4% priced · v2.0
10 Aug
Bearish · 48
-4.8% through expiry
3.5% priced · v2.0
7 Aug
Bullish · 30
-4.8% through expiry
3.7% priced · v2.0
6 Aug
Bullish · 31
-1.6% through expiry
4.2% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 17 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 360 / 360
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.4M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · otm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+100
1W price-0.7%
Call premium98%
Put premium2%
Notional split
C 98% / P 2%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.23
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 2459 contracts traded, $1.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 94% of visible notional.
$1.3M
Puts · 22-45 days · ATM
puts cluster with 35 contracts traded, $26,075 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$26,075
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM
calls cluster with 39 contracts traded, $19,500 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$19,500
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 23 contracts traded, $12,875 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$12,875
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $8,355 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$8,355
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
High anomaly
Current options activity is unusually hot versus this ticker's stored history.
Baseline: 29 completed sessions
Volume rank100th
Volume/OI rank100th
IV rank97th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close268.16
1W-0.7%
RS-6.3
Fair value+7.8%
Options pressure100
Speculation45
Volatility32
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 3.0% · 14 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 29/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 29/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.21 · 14 sessions
93th
90d avg - · 29/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 29/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.67 · 14 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 29/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 29/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.03 · 14 sessions
100th
90d avg - · 29/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 29/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
30 Jul 10:03
Bullish
Pressure 50
Move 6.0%
30 Jul 14:33
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 5.3%
1 Aug 13:08
Bullish
Pressure 37
Move 4.8%
3 Aug 09:39
Bullish
Pressure 37
Move 4.1%
3 Aug 21:10
Mixed
Pressure 1
Move 3.8%
4 Aug 22:50
Bullish
Pressure 40
Move 4.6%
5 Aug 17:44
Bullish
Pressure 22
Move 4.2%
7 Aug 10:20
Bullish
Pressure 57
Move 4.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike165.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike170.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike175.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike180.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike185.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike190.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike195.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.39
Put-call0.28
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.21
Put-call0.67
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.23
Put-call0.00
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.23
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts66
Avg IV0.22
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.23
Skew-0.04
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.18
Put IV0.22
Skew0.04
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.26
Skew0.05
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.24
Skew0.03
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.24
Skew0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractITW261120C00280000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike280.00
Volume2427
OI100
IV0.22
ContractITW261016C00270000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike270.00
Volume39
OI452
IV0.19
ContractITW261016P00270000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike270.00
Volume35
OI64
IV0.22
ContractITW260918C00270000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike270.00
Volume34
OI69
IV0.27
ContractITW260918C00290000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike290.00
Volume32
OI425
IV0.58
ContractITW261120C00290000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike290.00
Volume30
OI500
IV0.21
ContractITW270319C00310000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike310.00
Volume20
OI143
IV0.21
ContractITW260918P00230000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike230.00
Volume20
OI56
IV1.03
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.