Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
ITW options intelligence
Illinois Tool Works Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
25
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 30 Jul 2026 15:33 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
ITW currently carries mixed options pressure with a 25/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.08.
Expected move
5.3%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.08
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.91
Balanced tape
Trend fit
54
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+2.5%
RS 1.0
Expected move
5.3%
Put-call volume
0.91
Volume / OI
0.08
Reference IV
0.28
Max pain
270.00
Underlying
283.02
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
184
Research Brief
ITW has a mixed chain read with 25/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 267.97–298.07; The largest call open-interest concentration is 280.00; the largest put concentration is 260.00. The most active strike by current volume is 280.00.
Priced range267.97–298.07
Call concentration280.00
Put concentration260.00
Max pain reference270.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 267.97 to 298.07. Max pain at 270.00 sits inside that range, 4.6% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
267.97283.02 ± 15.05298.07
Confirmation level
A close beyond 298.07 or below 267.97 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 25/100
Pressure is 12/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure12 × 42%
+5.1
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation10 × 22%
+2.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement54 × 26%
+14.1
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility41 × 10%
+4.1
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 280.00; the largest put concentration is 260.00. The most active strike by current volume is 280.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
3
195.00-31.1%
0
1
200.00-29.3%
0
4
210.00-25.8%
0
1
220.00-22.3%
0
3
230.00-18.7%
0
18
240.00-15.2%
3
51
250.00-11.7%
3
257
260.00-8.1%
28
46
270.00-4.6%
172
87
280.00-1.1%
712
68
290.002.5%
251
20
300.006.0%
137
0
310.009.5%
209
0
320.0013.1%
31
0
390.0037.8%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.28
21 Aug
22d
0.27
18 Sep
50d
0.27
20 Nov
113d
0.29
18 Dec
141d
0.24
15 Jan
169d
0.27
19 Mar
232d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
No independently verifiable option-expiry outcomes have matured yet. Legacy snapshots without a point-in-time market reference and repeated same-session snapshots are deliberately excluded.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes99%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v1.x legacy
- Contracts
- 184 / 184
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.2M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+12
1W price+2.5%
Call premium78%
Put premium22%
Notional split
C 78% / P 22%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.08
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
54/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 82 contracts traded, $546694 estimated gross traded notional, and 46% of visible notional.
$546694
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 222 contracts traded, $145018 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$145018
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 73 contracts traded, $114495 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$114495
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 46 contracts traded, $84786 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$84786
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 25 contracts traded, $76415 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$76415
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The signal is live, but the strongest framework tags are still developing.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close283.02
1W+2.5%
RS1.0
Fair value+15.0%
Options pressure12
Speculation10
Volatility41
Trend fit54
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:05
Bullish
Pressure 30
Move 7.1%
30 Jul 10:03
Bullish
Pressure 50
Move 6.0%
30 Jul 14:33
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 5.3%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike195.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 3
Strike200.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike210.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike220.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike230.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 3
Strike240.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 3
Puts · V 1 · OI 18
Strike250.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 3 · OI 51
Strike260.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 28
Puts · V 2 · OI 257
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.28
Put-call3.33
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.27
Put-call0.89
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts45
Avg IV0.27
Put-call0.38
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV0.29
Put-call1.10
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts43
Avg IV0.24
Put-call1.64
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.31
Skew0.03
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.23
Skew-0.06
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.25
Skew-0.04
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.24
Skew-0.05
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.23
Skew-0.04
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractITW270115P00140000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike140.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.53
ContractITW270319C00320000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike320.00
Volume-
OI6
IV0.28
ContractITW270319P00250000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike250.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.26
ContractITW260821P00210000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike210.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.62
ContractITW261120C00230000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike230.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.69
ContractITW260821C00250000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike250.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.53
ContractITW261218P00210000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike210.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.37
ContractITW261120C00185000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike185.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.97
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.