Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
NVX options intelligence
Novonix Ltd ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
64
Market data through 12 Aug 2026
Checked 13 Aug 2026 14:00 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
NVX currently carries volatility options pressure with a 64/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 568.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.
Expected move
568.8%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.00
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
-
Balanced tape
Trend fit
63
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+2.5%
RS -65.0
Expected move
568.8%
Put-call volume
-
Volume / OI
0.00
Reference IV
8.62
Max pain
2.50
Underlying
0.41
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
32
Research Brief
NVX has a volatility chain read with 64/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 0.00–2.72; The largest call open-interest concentration is 2.50; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50.
Priced range0.00–2.72
Call concentration2.50
Put concentration2.50
Max pain reference2.50
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 0.00 to 2.72. Max pain at 2.50 sits inside that range, 514.3% above spot. The theoretical downside extends below zero, so the displayed lower bound is floored at 0.00.
Spot
Max pain
0.000.41 ± 2.322.72
Confirmation level
A close beyond 2.72 or below 0.00 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 64/100
Pressure is 89/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure89 × 42%
+37.2
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation3 × 22%
+0.6
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement63 × 26%
+16.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 2.50; the largest put concentration is 2.50. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
2
2.50514.3%
16
1
5.001128.5%
4
2
7.501742.8%
4
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$226Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak0.50+$130
Negative peak-No negative strike
Nearest balance-Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
0.5022.9%
+$130
1.00145.7%
+$41
1.50268.6%
+$1
2.00391.4%
+$43
2.50514.3%
+$11
5.001128.5%
+$0
7.501742.8%
+$0
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
8.62
21 Aug
9d
5.74
18 Sep
37d
2.17
16 Oct
65d
2.38
15 Jan
156d
Volatility by Strike
Smile incomplete
There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.
Comparable strike volatility is unavailable.
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 12 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 32 / 32
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1,490 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 22-45 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-89
1W price+2.5%
Call premium0%
Put premium100%
Notional split
C 0% / P 100%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.00
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
63/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM
puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $1,490 estimated gross traded notional, and 100% of visible notional.
$1,490
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 11 completed sessions
Volume rank36th
Volume/OI rank27th
IV rank91th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close0.41
1W+2.5%
RS-65.0
Fair value-73.1%
Options pressure-89
Speculation3
Volatility96
Trend fit63
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 491.3% · 11 sessions
91th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 6.38 · 11 sessions
91th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 7/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 7/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 7/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.04 · 11 sessions
27th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:43
Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 534.5%
30 Jul 11:21
Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 534.5%
30 Jul 14:52
Volatility
Pressure 83
Move 203.3%
30 Jul 15:30
Volatility
Pressure 83
Move 209.4%
3 Aug 12:31
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 541.6%
3 Aug 21:55
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move -
4 Aug 12:37
Volatility
Pressure 93
Move 547.9%
5 Aug 12:59
Mixed
Pressure -17
Move 554.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 16
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV8.62
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV5.74
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts14
Avg IV2.17
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts6
Avg IV2.38
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV5.92
Put IV-
Skew-
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV2.91
Put IV-
Skew-
16 Oct 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV1.31
Put IV-
Skew-
15 Jan 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV1.41
Put IV-
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractNVX260918P00007500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike7.50
Volume2
OI6
IV10.00
ContractNVX261016C00000500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike0.50
Volume-
OI1082
IV2.74
ContractNVX261016C00002000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike2.00
Volume-
OI623
IV2.00
ContractNVX261016C00001000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike1.00
Volume-
OI343
IV1.31
ContractNVX270115C00002500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI213
IV1.41
ContractNVX270115P00002500
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI60
IV1.59
ContractNVX261016C00002500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI39
IV2.20
ContractNVX261016C00001500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike1.50
Volume-
OI30
IV1.72
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.