Ticker Options Intelligence

UPBD options intelligence

Upbound Group Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 34 Market data through 13 Aug 2026 Checked 13 Aug 2026 14:46 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

UPBD currently carries mixed options pressure with a 34/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 5.7%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.04

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.83

Balanced tape

Trend fit 85

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +2.3%

RS -10.3

Expected move 5.7%
Put-call volume 0.83
Volume / OI 0.04
Reference IV 0.24
Max pain 20.00
Underlying 19.83
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 59

Research Brief

UPBD has a mixed chain read with 34/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 18.70–20.96; The largest call open-interest concentration is 22.50; the largest put concentration is 20.00. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00.

Priced range18.70–20.96
Call concentration22.50
Put concentration20.00
Max pain reference20.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 18.70 to 20.96. Max pain at 20.00 sits inside that range, 0.9% above spot.

Spot Max pain
18.7019.83 ± 1.1320.96
Confirmation level

A close beyond 20.96 or below 18.70 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 34/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 14/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure14 × 42%
+5.7

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation9 × 22%
+2.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement85 × 26%
+22.2

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility40 × 10%
+4.0

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score33.8Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 22.50; the largest put concentration is 20.00. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
15
2.50-87.4%
0
1
5.00-74.8%
0
0
7.50-62.2%
11
152
15.00-24.4%
0
105
17.50-11.7%
0
203
20.000.9%
104
0
22.5013.5%
1380
0
25.0026.1%
229
0
30.0051.3%
8
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Model-estimated Greeks · 70% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$489,360Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak20.00+$491,420
Negative peak10.00-$4,458
Nearest balance17.50Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50-87.4%
-$0
5.00-74.8%
-$0
7.50-62.2%
+$24
10.00-49.6%
-$4,458
12.50-37.0%
-$0
15.00-24.4%
-$49
17.50-11.7%
-$146
20.000.9%
+$491,420
22.5013.5%
+$1,368
25.0026.1%
+$1,200
30.0051.3%
+$0
35.0076.5%
+$2
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

4.96× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.24 21 Aug 8d
0.19 18 Sep 36d
0.05 18 Dec 127d
0.05 19 Mar 218d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

18
20
23
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A96/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
13 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
59 / 59
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

64/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $123,919 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+14
1W price+2.3%
Call premium71%
Put premium29%
Notional split C 71% / P 29% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.04 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 85/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 29 contracts traded, $38,953 estimated gross traded notional, and 31% of visible notional.
$38,953
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM calls cluster with 27 contracts traded, $32,139 estimated gross traded notional, and 26% of visible notional.
$32,139
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 85 contracts traded, $30,600 estimated gross traded notional, and 25% of visible notional.
$30,600
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 62 contracts traded, $9,220 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$9,220
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $5,125 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$5,125

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

47

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 10 completed sessions

Volume rank70th
Volume/OI rank70th
IV rank0th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close19.83
1W+2.3%
RS-10.3
Fair value-15.9%
Options pressure14
Speculation9
Volatility40
Trend fit85

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 5.7% muted
30d avg 9.7% · 10 sessions 0th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
IV 0.24 muted
30d avg 0.59 · 10 sessions 0th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.83 near normal
30d avg 5.52 · 10 sessions 50th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.04 near normal
30d avg 0.03 · 10 sessions 70th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:12 Volatility
Pressure -89
Move 15.3%
30 Jul 10:59 Volatility
Pressure -78
Move 13.2%
31 Jul 10:41 Bullish
Pressure 23
Move 9.2%
2 Aug 10:07 Volatility
Pressure 41
Move 9.7%
4 Aug 10:23 Mixed
Pressure 8
Move 8.6%
5 Aug 10:55 Mixed
Pressure -18
Move 8.8%
6 Aug 11:03 Bearish
Pressure -24
Move 7.0%
10 Aug 10:44 Bullish
Pressure 47
Move 6.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 15
Strike5.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 11
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 20 · OI 152
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 105
Strike20.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 104
Puts · V 1 · OI 203
Strike22.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 1380
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike25.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 229
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts13
Avg IV0.24
Put-call1.53
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.19
Put-call0.24
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.05
Put-call1.04
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts8
Avg IV0.05
Put-call0.07

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.06
Put IV0.13
Skew0.06
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.03
Put IV0.06
Skew0.03
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.02
Put IV0.06
Skew0.05
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.02
Put IV0.13
Skew0.11

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractUPBD270319P00025000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI26
IV0.00
ContractUPBD261218P00025000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI26
IV0.00
ContractUPBD260918P00002500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI15
IV0.50
ContractUPBD260821P00002500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI15
IV0.50
ContractUPBD260821C00007500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI11
IV9.27
ContractUPBD261218P00010000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI10
IV1.02
ContractUPBD260918P00025000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI8
IV0.00
ContractUPBD270319C00030000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.13

Research Graph

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Evidence context