Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
XMAX options intelligence
XMax Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
59
Market data through 18 Sep 2026
Checked 18 Sep 2026 14:40 · partial chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
XMAX currently carries volatility options pressure with a 59/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 43.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.49.
Expected move
43.4%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.49
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
20.38
Put-side skew
Trend fit
12
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-0.9%
RS 11.7
Expected move
43.4%
Put-call volume
20.38
Volume / OI
0.49
Reference IV
2.29
Max pain
5.00
Underlying
8.55
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
17
Research Brief
XMAX has a volatility chain read with 59/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 4.84–12.26; The largest call open-interest concentration is 7.50; the largest put concentration is 5.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00.
Priced range4.84–12.26
Call concentration7.50
Put concentration5.00
Max pain reference5.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 4.84 to 12.26. Max pain at 5.00 sits inside that range, 41.5% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
4.848.55 ± 3.7112.26
Confirmation level
A close beyond 12.26 or below 4.84 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 59/100
Pressure is 93/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure93 × 42%
+38.9
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation35 × 22%
+7.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement12 × 26%
+3.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 7.50; the largest put concentration is 5.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
25
5.00-41.5%
1
0
7.50-12.3%
18
1
10.0017.0%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$10Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak10.00+$18
Negative peak12.50-$13
Nearest balance7.72Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
5.00-41.5%
-$1
7.50-12.3%
-$2
10.0017.0%
+$18
12.5046.2%
-$13
15.0075.4%
+$8
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
2.29
18 Sep
0d
0.17
16 Oct
28d
0.29
18 Dec
91d
0.33
19 Mar
182d
Volatility by Strike
Smile incomplete
There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.
8
10
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
10 stored transitions are available, but none had a directional bullish or bearish label.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move2.9%
14 Aug
Volatility · 52
-5.1% through expiry
23.0% priced · v2.0
13 Aug
Volatility · 50
-5.3% through expiry
23.5% priced · v2.0
12 Aug
Volatility · 49
-5.3% through expiry
18.0% priced · v2.0
10 Aug
Volatility · 55
-5.3% through expiry
23.9% priced · v2.0
7 Aug
Volatility · 60
-5.3% through expiry
24.7% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Mixed · 38
-0.1% through expiry
25.5% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Volatility · 54
-0.1% through expiry
27.2% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Mixed · 37
-0.1% through expiry
27.0% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Mixed · 37
-0.1% through expiry
31.4% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Mixed · 37
2.1% through expiry
24.6% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Good
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Retained chain subset
- Market date
- 18 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 17 / 17
- 100% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $5,202 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-93
1W price-0.9%
Call premium14%
Put premium86%
Notional split
C 14% / P 86%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.49
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
12/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 11 contracts traded, $2,560 estimated gross traded notional, and 49% of visible notional.
$2,560
Puts · 22-45 days · OTM
puts cluster with 75 contracts traded, $975 estimated gross traded notional, and 19% of visible notional.
$975
Puts · 0-7 days · OTM
puts cluster with 75 contracts traded, $600 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$600
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 6 contracts traded, $410 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$410
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM
puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $238 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$238
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
High anomaly
Current options activity is unusually hot versus this ticker's stored history.
Baseline: 25 completed sessions
Volume rank100th
Volume/OI rank96th
IV rank92th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close8.55
1W-0.9%
RS11.7
Fair value+148.8%
Options pressure-93
Speculation35
Volatility96
Trend fit12
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 24.7% · 13 sessions
100th
90d avg - · 25/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 25/60 sessions
-
30d avg 1.71 · 13 sessions
85th
90d avg - · 25/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 25/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 14/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 14/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.10 · 13 sessions
100th
90d avg - · 25/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 25/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:25
Volatility
Pressure -94
Move 23.6%
30 Jul 09:33
Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 30.5%
31 Jul 11:39
Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 24.6%
31 Jul 13:54
Bullish
Pressure 20
Move 38.6%
3 Aug 12:18
Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 31.4%
4 Aug 11:03
Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 27.0%
5 Aug 11:25
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 27.2%
6 Aug 11:36
Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 25.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 75 · OI 25
Strike7.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 18
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts4
Avg IV2.29
Put-call76.00
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts3
Avg IV0.17
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts3
Avg IV0.29
Put-call0.33
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts7
Avg IV0.33
Put-call2.75
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV-
Put IV0.50
Skew-
16 Oct 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV-
Put IV0.50
Skew-
18 Dec 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV0.06
Put IV-
Skew-
19 Mar 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.93
Put IV0.06
Skew-0.87
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractXMAX261016C00007500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI11
IV0.00
ContractXMAX261218P00012500
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI2
IV0.82
ContractXMAX261016P00010000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.00
ContractXMAX260918C00005000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.00
ContractXMAX270319P00015000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.00
ContractXMAX261016P00005000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike5.00
Volume75
OI130
IV0.50
ContractXMAX260918P00005000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike5.00
Volume75
OI25
IV0.50
ContractXMAX270319P00010000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike10.00
Volume10
OI14
IV0.00
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.