Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
SHEL options intelligence
Shell PLC ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
51
Market data through 12 Aug 2026
Checked 12 Aug 2026 20:40 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
SHEL currently carries bullish options pressure with a 51/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.19.
Expected move
2.7%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.19
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.12
Call-side skew
Trend fit
7
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-3.8%
RS 0.5
Expected move
2.7%
Put-call volume
0.12
Volume / OI
0.19
Reference IV
0.38
Max pain
86.00
Underlying
88.50
Nearest expiry
14 Aug 2026
Contracts
547
Research Brief
SHEL has a bullish chain read with 51/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 86.10–90.90; The largest call open-interest concentration is 94.00; the largest put concentration is 85.00. The most active strike by current volume is 92.00.
Priced range86.10–90.90
Call concentration94.00
Put concentration85.00
Max pain reference86.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 86.10 to 90.90. Max pain at 86.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
86.1088.50 ± 2.4090.90
Confirmation level
A close beyond 90.90 or below 86.10 at the 14 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 51/100
Pressure is 84/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure84 × 42%
+35.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation44 × 22%
+9.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement7 × 26%
+1.7
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility37 × 10%
+3.7
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 94.00; the largest put concentration is 85.00. The most active strike by current volume is 92.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
79.00-10.7%
32
0
80.00-9.6%
59
6
81.00-8.5%
15
39
82.00-7.3%
9
7
84.00-5.1%
75
82
85.00-4.0%
71
55
86.00-2.8%
273
50
87.00-1.7%
9
72
88.00-0.6%
67
68
89.000.6%
128
44
90.001.7%
429
5
91.002.8%
72
6
92.004.0%
236
1
93.005.1%
777
3
94.006.2%
10832
0
95.007.3%
716
0
97.009.6%
361
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$20.6MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak95.00+$4.5M
Negative peak87.00-$365,561
Nearest balance87.25Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
80.00-9.6%
+$1.8M
81.00-8.5%
-$126
82.00-7.3%
-$21,492
82.50-6.8%
-$192,617
83.00-6.2%
-$10,725
84.00-5.1%
+$1,003
85.00-4.0%
+$3.5M
86.00-2.8%
+$47,096
87.00-1.7%
-$365,561
87.50-1.1%
+$376,350
88.00-0.6%
+$643,042
89.000.6%
+$172,172
90.001.7%
+$4.4M
91.002.8%
+$469,687
92.004.0%
+$393,558
92.504.5%
+$649,678
93.005.1%
+$550,633
94.006.2%
+$381,093
95.007.3%
+$4.5M
96.008.5%
+$46,141
97.009.6%
+$59,088
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.38
14 Aug
2d
0.23
21 Aug
9d
0.28
28 Aug
16d
0.26
4 Sep
23d
0.28
11 Sep
30d
0.22
18 Sep
37d
0.30
25 Sep
44d
0.23
16 Oct
65d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
76
77
78
79
80
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
94
95
96
97
100
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 7 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 29% of the time.
Directional follow-through29%
Moves contained by pricing0%
Average expiry move3.8%
7 Aug
Bullish · 52
-3.8% through expiry
3.5% priced · v2.0
6 Aug
Bullish · 48
-3.8% through expiry
2.8% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Bullish · 51
-3.8% through expiry
3.4% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Bearish · 49
-3.8% through expiry
2.7% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Bullish · 49
-3.8% through expiry
2.5% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Bullish · 45
-3.8% through expiry
2.7% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Bullish · 42
4.1% through expiry
2.9% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 12 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 547 / 547
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $109.1M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+84
1W price-3.8%
Call premium99%
Put premium1%
Notional split
C 99% / P 1%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.19
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
7/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 30038 contracts traded, $105.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 96% of visible notional.
$105.0M
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 844 contracts traded, $1.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$1.2M
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 442 contracts traded, $1.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$1.2M
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 356 contracts traded, $525,057 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$525,057
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 1784 contracts traded, $249,539 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$249,539
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Above normal
Activity is running above the recent historical baseline.
Baseline: 11 completed sessions
Volume rank82th
Volume/OI rank73th
IV rank73th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close88.50
1W-3.8%
RS0.5
Fair value+30.2%
Options pressure84
Speculation44
Volatility37
Trend fit7
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 3.1% · 11 sessions
9th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.35 · 11 sessions
73th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.68 · 11 sessions
18th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.10 · 11 sessions
73th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
4 Aug 18:10
Bullish
Pressure 63
Move 3.1%
4 Aug 19:30
Bullish
Pressure 65
Move 2.7%
5 Aug 04:00
Bearish
Pressure -58
Move 2.7%
5 Aug 14:20
Bullish
Pressure 68
Move 2.9%
5 Aug 15:50
Bullish
Pressure 77
Move 3.6%
5 Aug 17:10
Bullish
Pressure 78
Move 3.3%
5 Aug 18:40
Bullish
Pressure 78
Move 3.4%
6 Aug 15:00
Bullish
Pressure 65
Move 2.0%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike67.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike70.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike76.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 5
Puts · V 1 · OI 5
Strike77.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 15
Strike78.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.38
Put-call0.00
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.23
Put-call3.43
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.28
Put-call0.31
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts21
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.27
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.28
Put-call0.89
Skew
Call/put IV balance
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.23
Put IV1.02
Skew0.80
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.30
Skew0.09
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.64
Skew0.40
4 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.22
Put IV0.55
Skew0.33
11 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.47
Skew0.24
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractSHEL260904P00076000
SidePut
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike76.00
Volume-
OI75
IV0.64
ContractSHEL270319C00067500
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike67.50
Volume-
OI30
IV0.31
ContractSHEL260904P00084000
SidePut
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike84.00
Volume-
OI22
IV0.55
ContractSHEL260814P00077000
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike77.00
Volume-
OI15
IV0.85
ContractSHEL260904C00085000
SideCall
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike85.00
Volume-
OI14
IV0.37
ContractSHEL260814C00096000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike96.00
Volume-
OI13
IV0.60
ContractSHEL260821P00093000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike93.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.41
ContractSHEL260828C00080000
SideCall
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike80.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.76
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.