Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
CANE options intelligence
TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST SUGAR FUND options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
55
Market data through 16 Sep 2026
Checked 17 Sep 2026 11:41 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
CANE currently carries bullish options pressure with a 55/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
2.8%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.01
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-4.1%
RS 3.3
Expected move
2.8%
Put-call volume
0.01
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.38
Max pain
11.00
Underlying
11.52
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
234
Research Brief
CANE has a bullish chain read with 55/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 11.19–11.85; The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.00; the largest put concentration is 11.00. The most active strike by current volume is 8.00.
Priced range11.19–11.85
Call concentration12.00
Put concentration11.00
Max pain reference11.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 11.19 to 11.85. Max pain at 11.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
11.1911.52 ± 0.3311.85
Confirmation level
A close beyond 11.85 or below 11.19 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 55/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation40 × 22%
+8.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility38 × 10%
+3.8
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.00; the largest put concentration is 11.00. The most active strike by current volume is 8.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
1.00-91.3%
0
0
2.00-82.6%
0
0
3.00-74.0%
2
0
4.00-65.3%
0
0
5.00-56.6%
2
0
6.00-47.9%
0
0
7.00-39.2%
0
10
8.00-30.6%
35
0
9.00-21.9%
4
65
10.00-13.2%
132
300
11.00-4.5%
582
1
12.004.2%
655
0
13.0012.8%
53
0
14.0021.5%
1
0
15.0030.2%
12
0
16.0038.9%
0
0
17.0047.6%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$2.1MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak11.00+$1.0M
Negative peak9.00-$13,187
Nearest balance9.08Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
6.00-47.9%
+$16
8.00-30.6%
-$33
9.00-21.9%
-$13,187
10.00-13.2%
+$159,347
11.00-4.5%
+$1.0M
12.004.2%
+$690,929
13.0012.8%
+$186,261
14.0021.5%
+$10,287
15.0030.2%
+$36,833
16.0038.9%
+$9,066
17.0047.6%
-$52
18.0056.3%
-$3
19.0064.9%
+$17
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.38
18 Sep
2d
0.23
16 Oct
30d
0.34
15 Jan
121d
0.26
16 Apr
212d
0.09
21 Jan
492d
0.06
19 Jan
856d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
10
11
12
13
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 14 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 50% of the time.
Directional follow-through50%
Moves contained by pricing53%
Average expiry move7.0%
16 Sep
Bullish · 55
-4.1% through expiry
2.8% priced · v2.0
14 Sep
Volatility · 48
-4.1% through expiry
8.9% priced · v2.0
10 Sep
Bullish · 51
-3.2% through expiry
4.5% priced · v2.0
8 Sep
Volatility · 54
-3.2% through expiry
5.7% priced · v2.0
4 Sep
Bullish · 47
-3.2% through expiry
4.5% priced · v2.0
3 Sep
Volatility · 51
-1.4% through expiry
4.9% priced · v2.0
2 Sep
Bullish · 50
-1.4% through expiry
4.5% priced · v2.0
1 Sep
Bullish · 49
-1.4% through expiry
6.2% priced · v2.0
28 Aug
Bullish · 56
-1.4% through expiry
4.7% priced · v2.0
18 Aug
Bullish · 45
4.2% through expiry
4.6% priced · v2.0
17 Aug
Bullish · 50
4.2% through expiry
3.3% priced · v2.0
7 Aug
Bullish · 55
5.3% through expiry
4.1% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 16 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 234 / 234
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $38,220 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 0-7 days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+100
1W price-4.1%
Call premium95%
Put premium5%
Notional split
C 95% / P 5%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 67 contracts traded, $13,092 estimated gross traded notional, and 34% of visible notional.
$13,092
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 67 contracts traded, $9,542 estimated gross traded notional, and 25% of visible notional.
$9,542
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 250 contracts traded, $7,568 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$7,568
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 13 contracts traded, $3,630 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$3,630
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 176 contracts traded, $2,640 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$2,640
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 18 completed sessions
Volume rank28th
Volume/OI rank28th
IV rank72th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close11.05
1W-4.1%
RS3.3
Fair value-3.7%
Options pressure100
Speculation40
Volatility38
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 5.2% · 10 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 18/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 18/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.72 · 10 sessions
50th
90d avg - · 18/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 18/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.17 · 10 sessions
10th
90d avg - · 18/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 18/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.02 · 10 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 18/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 18/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 12:05
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 5.3%
30 Jul 11:42
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 6.4%
31 Jul 11:14
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 4.6%
3 Aug 10:14
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 7.3%
4 Aug 11:25
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 6.5%
5 Aug 11:54
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 5.5%
6 Aug 12:07
Bearish
Pressure -77
Move 6.8%
9 Aug 22:14
Bullish
Pressure 98
Move 4.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike1.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike8.00
Calls · V 35 · OI 35
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.38
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.23
Put-call0.00
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts38
Avg IV0.34
Put-call-
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Contracts38
Avg IV0.26
Put-call-
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Contracts42
Avg IV0.09
Put-call0.45
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.34
Skew-0.12
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.09
Skew-0.19
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.29
Skew-0.13
16 Apr 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.04
Skew-0.30
21 Jan 2028Balanced skew
Call IV0.01
Put IV0.04
Skew0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCANE261016C00012000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike12.00
Volume176
OI10822
IV0.28
ContractCANE270115C00013000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike13.00
Volume160
OI5483
IV0.30
ContractCANE270115C00015000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike15.00
Volume65
OI537
IV0.22
ContractCANE261016C00010000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike10.00
Volume63
OI10002
IV0.32
ContractCANE260918C00008000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike8.00
Volume35
OI35
IV0.01
ContractCANE260918C00011000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike11.00
Volume32
OI582
IV0.32
ContractCANE270115C00012000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike12.00
Volume15
OI3702
IV0.29
ContractCANE280121C00011000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike11.00
Volume11
OI34
IV0.50
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.