Ticker Options Intelligence

MSEX options intelligence

Middlesex Water Company options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 36 Market data through 12 Aug 2026 Checked 13 Aug 2026 12:44 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

MSEX currently carries bullish options pressure with a 36/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 6.3%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.50

Call-side skew

Trend fit 50

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +1.6%

RS -4.2

Expected move 6.3%
Put-call volume 0.50
Volume / OI 0.00
Reference IV 0.29
Max pain 55.00
Underlying 58.22
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 86

Research Brief

MSEX has a bullish chain read with 36/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 54.57–61.87; The largest call open-interest concentration is 55.00; the largest put concentration is 55.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00.

Priced range54.57–61.87
Call concentration55.00
Put concentration55.00
Max pain reference55.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 54.57 to 61.87. Max pain at 55.00 sits inside that range, 5.5% below spot.

Spot Max pain
54.5758.22 ± 3.6561.87
Confirmation level

A close beyond 61.87 or below 54.57 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 36/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 42/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure42 × 42%
+17.8

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation1 × 22%
+0.3

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement50 × 26%
+13.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility46 × 10%
+4.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score35.7Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 55.00; the largest put concentration is 55.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
30.00-48.5%
0
0
35.00-39.9%
0
0
40.00-31.3%
0
5
45.00-22.7%
0
1
50.00-14.1%
0
10
55.00-5.5%
3
2
60.003.1%
1
0
65.0011.6%
0
0
70.0020.2%
0
0
75.0028.8%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 93% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$86,663Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak60.00+$67,353
Negative peak40.00-$119
Nearest balance45.11Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
30.00-48.5%
-$107
40.00-31.3%
-$119
45.00-22.7%
-$98
50.00-14.1%
+$4,521
55.00-5.5%
+$14,037
60.003.1%
+$67,353
65.0011.6%
+$952
70.0020.2%
+$118
80.0037.4%
+$6
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

1.02× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.29 21 Aug 9d
0.21 18 Sep 37d
0.31 18 Dec 128d
0.29 19 Mar 219d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

50
55
60
65
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
12 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
86 / 86
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

48/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3,725 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+42
1W price+1.6%
Call premium98%
Put premium2%
Notional split C 98% / P 2% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 50/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $3,650 estimated gross traded notional, and 98% of visible notional.
$3,650
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $75 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$75

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

57

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 10 completed sessions

Volume rank60th
Volume/OI rank50th
IV rank60th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close58.22
1W+1.6%
RS-4.2
Fair value+5.0%
Options pressure42
Speculation1
Volatility46
Trend fit50

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 6.3% muted
30d avg 7.2% · 10 sessions 20th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
IV 0.29 near normal
30d avg 0.35 · 10 sessions 60th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.50 history building
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 6/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 6/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 near normal
30d avg 0.04 · 10 sessions 50th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:14 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 6.6%
30 Jul 07:52 Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 6.4%
31 Jul 09:34 Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 6.6%
31 Jul 13:55 Volatility
Pressure 25
Move 8.9%
31 Jul 15:40 Volatility
Pressure 25
Move 7.1%
2 Aug 23:57 Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 5.2%
4 Aug 10:50 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 5.8%
5 Aug 11:15 Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 9.6%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.29
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.21
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.31
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts22
Avg IV0.29
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.09
Put IV0.18
Skew0.09
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.22
Put IV0.61
Skew0.39
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.47
Skew0.13
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.38
Skew0.13

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractMSEX260918C00040000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike40.00
Volume2
OI12
IV0.01
ContractMSEX261218P00045000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike45.00
Volume1
OI7
IV0.18
ContractMSEX261218C00060000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike60.00
Volume-
OI145
IV0.22
ContractMSEX260918C00060000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike60.00
Volume-
OI134
IV0.22
ContractMSEX261218C00055000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike55.00
Volume-
OI103
IV0.24
ContractMSEX261218P00030000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI72
IV0.41
ContractMSEX261218C00050000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI61
IV0.28
ContractMSEX260918C00065000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike65.00
Volume-
OI24
IV0.14

Evidence context