Ticker Options Intelligence

ONB options intelligence

Old National Bancorp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 49 Market data through 12 Aug 2026 Checked 13 Aug 2026 12:00 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

ONB currently carries bullish options pressure with a 49/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 8.1%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.02

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.00

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -0.3%

RS 1.5

Expected move 8.1%
Put-call volume -
Volume / OI 0.02
Reference IV 0.51
Max pain 25.00
Underlying 26.56
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 76

Research Brief

ONB has a bullish chain read with 49/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 24.42–28.70; The largest call open-interest concentration is 25.00; the largest put concentration is 22.50. The most active strike by current volume is 25.00.

Priced range24.42–28.70
Call concentration25.00
Put concentration22.50
Max pain reference25.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 24.42 to 28.70. Max pain at 25.00 sits inside that range, 5.9% below spot.

Spot Max pain
24.4226.56 ± 2.1428.70
Confirmation level

A close beyond 28.70 or below 24.42 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 49/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation1 × 22%
+0.3

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility68 × 10%
+6.8

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score49.1Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 25.00; the largest put concentration is 22.50. The most active strike by current volume is 25.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
12.50-52.9%
0
0
15.00-43.5%
0
0
17.50-34.1%
0
0
20.00-24.7%
0
1
22.50-15.3%
0
0
25.00-5.9%
21
1
30.0013.0%
8
0
35.0031.8%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 100% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$25,255Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak30.00+$25,861
Negative peak25.00-$376
Nearest balance25.07Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
12.50-52.9%
-$146
20.00-24.7%
-$18
22.50-15.3%
-$71
25.00-5.9%
-$376
30.0013.0%
+$25,861
35.0031.8%
+$6
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.45× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.51 21 Aug 9d
0.17 18 Sep 37d
0.19 18 Dec 128d
0.26 19 Mar 219d
0.21 17 Jun 309d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

23
25
30
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
12 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
76 / 76
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

61/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow before price confirmation

Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $5,406 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · itm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+100
1W price-0.3%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 100% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.02 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM calls cluster with 23 contracts traded, $4,542 estimated gross traded notional, and 84% of visible notional.
$4,542
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $440 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$440
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $420 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$420
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $3 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$3

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

9 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 9 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close26.56
1W-0.3%
RS1.5
Fair value+36.7%
Options pressure100
Speculation1
Volatility68
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 8.1% history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions -
IV 0.51 history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.02 history building
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:29 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 9.1%
30 Jul 10:24 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 9.8%
30 Jul 22:14 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 15.0%
31 Jul 08:39 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 10.8%
31 Jul 23:19 Volatility
Pressure 97
Move 16.2%
2 Aug 12:59 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 8.3%
4 Aug 10:33 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 10.9%
5 Aug 11:04 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 7.7%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike25.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 21
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.51
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.17
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.19
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts14
Avg IV0.26
Put-call-
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Contracts14
Avg IV0.21
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.26
Skew-0.06
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.15
Put IV0.13
Skew-0.02
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.30
Skew0.07
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.32
Skew0.09
17 Jun 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.36
Skew0.10

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractONB260918C00025000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume23
OI749
IV0.01
ContractONB270319C00030000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike30.00
Volume4
OI65
IV0.23
ContractONB260821C00025000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike25.00
Volume2
OI21
IV0.01
ContractONB260918C00030000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike30.00
Volume1
OI553
IV0.15
ContractONB260918P00012500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI173
IV0.96
ContractONB261218C00030000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI95
IV0.23
ContractONB270617C00030000
SideCall
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI15
IV0.26
ContractONB260918P00025000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.13

Evidence context