Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
NGG options intelligence
National Grid PLC ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
44
Market data through 12 Aug 2026
Checked 13 Aug 2026 04:41 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
NGG currently carries bullish options pressure with a 44/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
2.7%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.06
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+1.1%
RS -8.4
Expected move
2.7%
Put-call volume
0.06
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.26
Max pain
85.00
Underlying
80.88
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
176
Research Brief
NGG has a bullish chain read with 44/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 78.73–83.03; The largest call open-interest concentration is 85.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 80.00.
Priced range78.73–83.03
Call concentration85.00
Put concentration80.00
Max pain reference85.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 78.73 to 83.03. Max pain at 85.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
78.7380.88 ± 2.1583.03
Confirmation level
A close beyond 83.03 or below 78.73 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 44/100
Pressure is 92/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure92 × 42%
+38.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation8 × 22%
+1.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility29 × 10%
+2.9
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 85.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 80.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
45.00-44.4%
1
0
50.00-38.2%
0
0
55.00-32.0%
0
1
60.00-25.8%
0
1
65.00-19.6%
1
84
70.00-13.5%
1
64
75.00-7.3%
0
1032
80.00-1.1%
82
110
85.005.1%
398
1
90.0011.3%
21
0
95.0017.5%
3
0
100.0023.6%
0
0
105.0029.8%
0
0
110.0036.0%
0
0
115.0042.2%
0
0
120.0048.4%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Negative gamma proxy
Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile-$618,856Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak85.00+$326,979
Negative peak80.00-$1.1M
Nearest balance83.84Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
45.00-44.4%
+$16
50.00-38.2%
-$12
55.00-32.0%
-$223
60.00-25.8%
-$73
65.00-19.6%
-$4,669
70.00-13.5%
+$529
75.00-7.3%
+$2,241
80.00-1.1%
-$1.1M
85.005.1%
+$326,979
90.0011.3%
+$42,347
95.0017.5%
+$60,637
100.0023.6%
+$25,885
105.0029.8%
+$4,509
110.0036.0%
+$306
115.0042.2%
+$56
120.0048.4%
+$156
125.0054.5%
+$55
130.0060.7%
+$167
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.26
21 Aug
9d
0.23
18 Sep
37d
0.23
20 Nov
100d
0.23
18 Dec
128d
0.22
19 Mar
219d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 12 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 176 / 176
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $134,500 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+92
1W price+1.1%
Call premium96%
Put premium4%
Notional split
C 96% / P 4%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 56 contracts traded, $121,520 estimated gross traded notional, and 90% of visible notional.
$121,520
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM
calls cluster with 25 contracts traded, $6,625 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$6,625
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 3 contracts traded, $4,760 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$4,760
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $938 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$938
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $290 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$290
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 11 completed sessions
Volume rank36th
Volume/OI rank36th
IV rank73th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close80.88
1W+1.1%
RS-8.4
Fair value+24.5%
Options pressure92
Speculation8
Volatility29
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 3.9% · 11 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.24 · 11 sessions
73th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 1.20 · 11 sessions
9th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.01 · 11 sessions
36th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:03
Bearish
Pressure -55
Move 4.8%
30 Jul 10:02
Bearish
Pressure -33
Move 4.6%
31 Jul 10:01
Mixed
Pressure -13
Move 4.5%
31 Jul 14:19
Bearish
Pressure -65
Move 4.2%
31 Jul 15:38
Bearish
Pressure -55
Move 4.3%
1 Aug 03:00
Bullish
Pressure 67
Move 4.1%
2 Aug 10:48
Bullish
Pressure 67
Move 4.2%
4 Aug 10:00
Bearish
Pressure -36
Move 4.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 84
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 64
Strike80.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 82
Puts · V 0 · OI 1032
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.26
Put-call1.50
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.23
Put-call0.04
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.23
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.23
Put-call0.50
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts34
Avg IV0.22
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.15
Put IV0.21
Skew0.06
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.25
Skew0.04
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.22
Put IV0.22
Skew-
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.23
Skew0.02
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.19
Skew-0.02
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractNGG270319C00060000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike60.00
Volume56
OI-
IV0.01
ContractNGG260918C00080000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike80.00
Volume25
OI315
IV0.21
ContractNGG260918C00085000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike85.00
Volume2
OI663
IV0.21
ContractNGG261218C00085000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike85.00
Volume2
OI424
IV0.17
ContractNGG260821C00080000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike80.00
Volume2
OI82
IV0.20
ContractNGG270319C00095000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike95.00
Volume2
OI2
IV0.21
ContractNGG270319C00090000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike90.00
Volume1
OI159
IV0.20
ContractNGG260918P00075000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike75.00
Volume1
OI68
IV0.25
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.