- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Next-week expectancy is positive at 58.08% based on similar historical setup states.
NGG
NYSE
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
National Grid PLC ADR · Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
Latest close
80.88 USD
1.1%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -3.3% below the Trend Line and sits at 58.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 1.1%, after a -2.1% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is bullish with 44/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 55/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 84d.
Setup score
45
out of 100
Latest Close
80.88 USD
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
1.1%
latest completed week
4W Return
-2.1%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
3.0%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
84.6%
44 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.6x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
1.1%
Latest completed week; four-week move -2.1%.
Indicator stack
47/32
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 58.08%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Bullish
44/100 conviction; expected move 2.7%.
News sentiment
55/100
48 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
84d
Next report is scheduled for 05 Nov 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -3.3% below the Trend Line and sits at 58.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 1.1%, after a -2.1% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.6x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.3812-week average 0.50
12-week confirmation
Trend active4/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.38Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -2.1% over four weeks, 3.0% over 12 weeks, and 18.6% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year44
Trend breadth84.6%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.91Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-17.0%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-8.42Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-96.0%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.
Factor week 09 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026
Field coverage 94%
Model confidence 88%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength93/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 8; rank 1 is best.
Value84/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 17; rank 1 is best.
Quality74/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 27; rank 1 is best.
Momentum74/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 27; rank 1 is best.
Growth32/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 69; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework63/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 13.3x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 2.3x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 8.7x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 23.5% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 29.3% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 29.0% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 84.1% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 9.4% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- - Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 54.2% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 5/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 4.0% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- -0.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 4.0% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 3.2x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningBullish
NGG shows bullish options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.06, expected move of 2.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction44/100
Expected move2.7%
Put/call volume0.06
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment55/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 48 relevant articles.
14 positive · 25 neutral · 9 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings84dNext report is scheduled for 05 Nov 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move2.7%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-12.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.5%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher12 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+7.4%Week of 3 Apr.
Worst week-9.8%Week of 20 Mar.
Latest week+1.1%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains4
Modest gains8
Flat weeks0
Modest losses11
Sharp losses3
Recent vol3.5%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.1%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split28/23Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.5% / -2.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Utilities
4-week rank48 / 100
Group average-2.4%
Trend breadth40.0%
Trend40.0%active weekly trend signals
MD32.0%positive activity pressure
RS6.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Utilities - Regulated Electric
4-week rank13 / 43
Group average-3.0%
Trend breadth58.1%
Trend58.1%active weekly trend signals
MD30.2%positive activity pressure
RS4.7%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape44/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 44/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis24/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 4/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.38; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 58.08%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 58.08% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors81/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 70 SVQF63/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 382.0 of 1018 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options43/100NGG shows bullish options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.06, expected move of 2.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 2.7% Sentiment55/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 48 relevant articles.
Vinson & Elkins Makes Major London Push With Energy M&A Heavyweight Michael Burns Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings84dNext report is scheduled for 05 Nov 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 80.88 USD | 1.1% | 83.65 USD | 64.95 USD | -0.91 | -8.42 | 3.7M | Off |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 79.97 USD | -2.8% | 83.55 USD | 64.76 USD | -0.89 | -6.32 | 4.0M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 82.30 USD | -2.0% | 83.44 USD | 64.58 USD | -0.76 | -2.62 | 3.7M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 83.99 USD | 1.7% | 83.22 USD | 64.40 USD | -0.64 | -1.18 | 4.0M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 82.59 USD | -0.3% | 82.89 USD | 64.22 USD | -0.78 | -4.29 | 3.8M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 82.85 USD | -0.2% | 82.57 USD | 64.05 USD | -0.83 | -2.68 | 4.5M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 83.01 USD | 4.5% | 82.26 USD | 63.85 USD | -0.93 | -0.38 | 7.8M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 79.44 USD | -2.9% | 81.96 USD | 63.67 USD | -1.13 | -6.97 | 5.8M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 81.84 USD | -0.0% | 81.76 USD | 63.51 USD | -0.97 | -3.42 | 4.3M | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 81.86 USD | 0.4% | 81.50 USD | 63.34 USD | -0.85 | -2.97 | 5.5M | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 81.53 USD | -3.4% | 81.27 USD | 63.17 USD | -0.79 | -5.84 | 4.2M | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 84.36 USD | 7.4% | 80.96 USD | 62.99 USD | -0.66 | -1.32 | 8.3M | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 78.55 USD | -7.2% | 80.61 USD | 62.80 USD | -0.64 | -7.45 | 18.6M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 84.63 USD | -1.8% | 80.45 USD | 62.64 USD | -0.65 | -0.19 | 4.1M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.