Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
VTIP options intelligence
VANGUARD SHORT-TERM INFLATION-PROTECTED SECURITIES INDEX FUND ETF SHARES options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
53
Market data through 15 Sep 2026
Checked 16 Sep 2026 09:40 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
VTIP currently carries bearish options pressure with a 53/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 1.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.
Expected move
1.0%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.00
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
-
Balanced tape
Trend fit
36
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-0.5%
RS -10.1
Expected move
1.0%
Put-call volume
-
Volume / OI
0.00
Reference IV
0.11
Max pain
49.00
Underlying
49.50
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
152
Research Brief
VTIP has a bearish chain read with 53/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 49.02–49.98; The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 50.00. The most active strike by current volume is 41.00.
Priced range49.02–49.98
Call concentration50.00
Put concentration50.00
Max pain reference49.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 49.02 to 49.98. Max pain at 49.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
49.0249.50 ± 0.4849.98
Confirmation level
A close beyond 49.98 or below 49.02 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 53/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation1 × 22%
+0.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement36 × 26%
+9.4
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility11 × 10%
+1.1
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 50.00. The most active strike by current volume is 41.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
41.00-17.2%
0
0
42.00-15.2%
0
0
43.00-13.1%
0
0
44.00-11.1%
0
0
45.00-9.1%
0
0
46.00-7.1%
0
0
47.00-5.1%
0
0
48.00-3.0%
0
0
49.00-1.0%
2
2
50.001.0%
12
0
51.003.0%
1
0
52.005.1%
0
0
53.007.1%
0
0
54.009.1%
0
0
55.0011.1%
0
0
56.0013.1%
0
0
57.0015.2%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile-$92,394Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak51.00+$171,232
Negative peak50.00-$184,613
Nearest balance50.52Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
46.00-7.1%
-$86
48.00-3.0%
-$77,004
49.00-1.0%
-$17,267
50.001.0%
-$184,613
51.003.0%
+$171,232
52.005.1%
+$13,991
53.007.1%
+$912
54.009.1%
+$442
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.11
18 Sep
3d
0.07
16 Oct
31d
0.05
20 Nov
66d
0.05
19 Feb
157d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 2 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 0% of the time.
Directional follow-through0%
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move0.3%
4 Aug
Bearish · 44
0.3% through expiry
0.8% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Mixed · 28
0.3% through expiry
1.0% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Bearish · 48
0.3% through expiry
0.8% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Mixed · 26
0.4% through expiry
0.7% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 15 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 152 / 152
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Put-side pressure is present before a decisive weekly price breakdown.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $75 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · atm, and a bearish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-100
1W price-0.5%
Call premium0%
Put premium100%
Notional split
C 0% / P 100%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.00
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
36/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $75 estimated gross traded notional, and 100% of visible notional.
$75
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 12 completed sessions
Volume rank42th
Volume/OI rank17th
IV rank100th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close49.50
1W-0.5%
RS-10.1
Fair value+4.5%
Options pressure-100
Speculation1
Volatility11
Trend fit36
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 13:25
Bullish
Pressure 88
Move 1.0%
30 Jul 13:12
Bullish
Pressure 36
Move 0.7%
31 Jul 12:52
Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 0.7%
3 Aug 11:35
Bearish
Pressure -72
Move 0.8%
4 Aug 12:51
Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 1.0%
5 Aug 13:14
Bearish
Pressure -45
Move 0.8%
23 Aug 01:51
Bearish
Pressure -100
Move 0.6%
1 Sep 11:46
Bullish
Pressure 88
Move 0.8%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike41.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike42.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike43.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike44.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike46.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike47.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike48.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.11
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.07
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.05
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts38
Avg IV0.05
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.07
Put IV0.07
Skew-
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.01
Put IV0.06
Skew0.05
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.02
Put IV0.06
Skew0.04
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.01
Put IV0.06
Skew0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractVTIP270219P00049000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike49.00
Volume2
OI21
IV0.06
ContractVTIP270219P00050000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI811
IV0.08
ContractVTIP261120P00050000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI696
IV0.09
ContractVTIP261120P00048000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike48.00
Volume-
OI501
IV0.04
ContractVTIP261120C00051000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike51.00
Volume-
OI463
IV0.03
ContractVTIP261120C00052000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike52.00
Volume-
OI196
IV0.05
ContractVTIP261120P00052000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike52.00
Volume-
OI150
IV0.18
ContractVTIP270219C00052000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike52.00
Volume-
OI135
IV0.02
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.