Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
NVAX options intelligence
Novavax Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
56
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 07:15 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
NVAX currently carries volatility options pressure with a 56/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 13.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
13.9%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.08
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-1.9%
RS -20.4
Expected move
13.9%
Put-call volume
0.08
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
1.07
Max pain
8.00
Underlying
7.32
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
462
Research Brief
NVAX has a volatility chain read with 56/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 6.30–8.34; The largest call open-interest concentration is 8.00; the largest put concentration is 7.00. The most active strike by current volume is 7.00.
Priced range6.30–8.34
Call concentration8.00
Put concentration7.00
Max pain reference8.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 6.30 to 8.34. Max pain at 8.00 sits inside that range, 9.3% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
6.307.32 ± 1.028.34
Confirmation level
A close beyond 8.34 or below 6.30 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 56/100
Pressure is 90/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure90 × 42%
+37.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 8.00; the largest put concentration is 7.00. The most active strike by current volume is 7.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
8
3.00-59.0%
1
12
5.50-24.9%
0
19
6.00-18.0%
0
29
6.50-11.2%
0
689
7.00-4.4%
21
27
7.502.5%
144
137
8.009.3%
746
91
8.5016.1%
316
11
9.0023.0%
146
0
9.5029.8%
103
5
10.0036.6%
138
0
10.5043.4%
42
0
11.0050.3%
15
0
11.5057.1%
17
0
14.0091.3%
153
0
14.5098.1%
44
0
15.00104.9%
37
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$152,250Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak12.00+$58,434
Negative peak7.00-$43,900
Nearest balance8.16Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.00-72.7%
-$11,157
2.50-65.8%
-$347
3.00-59.0%
-$349
4.00-45.4%
-$1,564
4.50-38.5%
-$12
5.00-31.7%
-$3,600
5.50-24.9%
-$35
6.00-18.0%
-$2,104
6.50-11.2%
-$7,059
7.00-4.4%
-$43,900
7.502.5%
-$37,764
8.009.3%
-$2,578
8.5016.1%
+$5,259
9.0023.0%
+$20,587
9.5029.8%
+$1,244
10.0036.6%
+$52,716
10.5043.4%
+$266
11.0050.3%
+$16,680
11.5057.1%
+$28
12.0063.9%
+$58,434
12.5070.8%
+$7,197
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.07
7 Aug
7d
1.29
14 Aug
14d
0.92
21 Aug
21d
1.25
28 Aug
28d
0.80
4 Sep
35d
0.23
11 Sep
42d
0.73
18 Sep
49d
0.83
16 Oct
77d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
6
7
7
8
8
9
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
1 stored transitions are available, but none had a directional bullish or bearish label.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move1.9%
30 Jul
Volatility · 51
-1.9% through expiry
5.4% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 462 / 462
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $481,358 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+90
1W price-1.9%
Call premium96%
Put premium4%
Notional split
C 96% / P 4%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
5 Aug
Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 1010 contracts traded, $186,936 estimated gross traded notional, and 39% of visible notional.
$186,936
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 1553 contracts traded, $152,587 estimated gross traded notional, and 32% of visible notional.
$152,587
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 274 contracts traded, $47,128 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$47,128
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 301 contracts traded, $35,271 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$35,271
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 423 contracts traded, $13,248 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$13,248
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close7.32
1W-1.9%
RS-20.4
Fair value-11.6%
Options pressure90
Speculation41
Volatility96
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:03
Bullish
Pressure 52
Move 7.2%
30 Jul 10:51
Volatility
Pressure 60
Move 8.0%
31 Jul 10:34
Volatility
Pressure 83
Move 5.4%
2 Aug 06:15
Volatility
Pressure 90
Move 13.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike3.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 8
Strike4.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike4.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 9
Strike5.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 12
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 153 · OI 19
Strike6.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 6 · OI 29
Strike7.00
Calls · V 1549 · OI 21
Puts · V 11 · OI 689
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts56
Avg IV1.07
Put-call0.11
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts56
Avg IV1.29
Put-call1.19
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts56
Avg IV0.92
Put-call0.08
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV1.25
Put-call1.17
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV0.80
Put-call1.00
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.21
Put IV1.47
Skew0.26
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.55
Put IV0.99
Skew-0.56
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.03
Put IV0.75
Skew-0.28
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.16
Put IV1.47
Skew0.31
4 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.74
Put IV0.11
Skew-0.62
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractNVAX260807C00007000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike7.00
Volume1549
OI21
IV2.04
ContractNVAX261016C00006000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike6.00
Volume1001
OI33
IV0.85
ContractNVAX270115C00007500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike7.50
Volume274
OI3355
IV0.89
ContractNVAX260821C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike10.00
Volume259
OI1463
IV1.02
ContractNVAX260807P00006000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike6.00
Volume153
OI19
IV0.80
ContractNVAX261016C00010000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike10.00
Volume133
OI3857
IV0.81
ContractNVAX260807C00007500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike7.50
Volume108
OI144
IV1.28
ContractNVAX260918C00010000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume105
OI1175
IV0.85
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.