Ticker Options Intelligence

ES options intelligence

Eversource Energy options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 30 Market data through 12 Aug 2026 Checked 13 Aug 2026 11:21 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

ES currently carries mixed options pressure with a 30/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 3.1%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.04

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.85

Balanced tape

Trend fit 71

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +1.0%

RS -6.0

Expected move 3.1%
Put-call volume 0.85
Volume / OI 0.04
Reference IV 0.26
Max pain 75.00
Underlying 72.33
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 118

Research Brief

ES has a mixed chain read with 30/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 70.05–74.61; The largest call open-interest concentration is 75.00; the largest put concentration is 75.00. The most active strike by current volume is 75.00.

Priced range70.05–74.61
Call concentration75.00
Put concentration75.00
Max pain reference75.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 70.05 to 74.61. Max pain at 75.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
70.0572.33 ± 2.2874.61
Confirmation level

A close beyond 74.61 or below 70.05 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 30/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 17/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure17 × 42%
+7.2

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation6 × 22%
+1.3

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement71 × 26%
+18.3

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility31 × 10%
+3.1

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score30.0Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 75.00; the largest put concentration is 75.00. The most active strike by current volume is 75.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
35.00-51.6%
8
0
40.00-44.7%
0
2
45.00-37.8%
0
0
50.00-30.9%
0
15
55.00-24.0%
0
12
60.00-17.0%
0
42
65.00-10.1%
4
228
70.00-3.2%
47
275
75.003.7%
2253
0
80.0010.6%
532
0
85.0017.5%
13
0
90.0024.4%
0
0
95.0031.3%
0
0
100.0038.3%
0
0
105.0045.2%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 92% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$917,234Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak75.00+$900,204
Negative peak70.00-$125,961
Nearest balance70.61Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
35.00-51.6%
-$57
40.00-44.7%
-$13
45.00-37.8%
-$90
50.00-30.9%
-$751
55.00-24.0%
-$8,102
60.00-17.0%
-$14,764
65.00-10.1%
-$24,996
70.00-3.2%
-$125,961
75.003.7%
+$900,204
80.0010.6%
+$172,018
85.0017.5%
+$15,363
90.0024.4%
+$4,324
95.0031.3%
+$33
100.0038.3%
+$15
105.0045.2%
+$6
110.0052.1%
+$4
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.16× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.26 21 Aug 9d
0.23 18 Sep 37d
0.22 16 Oct 65d
0.22 15 Jan 156d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

60
65
70
75
80
85
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
12 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
118 / 118
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

63/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $58,062 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+17
1W price+1.0%
Call premium49%
Put premium51%
Notional split C 49% / P 51% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.04 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 71/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM puts cluster with 136 contracts traded, $28,155 estimated gross traded notional, and 48% of visible notional.
$28,155
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 81 contracts traded, $19,712 estimated gross traded notional, and 34% of visible notional.
$19,712
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 24 contracts traded, $4,440 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$4,440
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 8 contracts traded, $2,520 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$2,520
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM calls cluster with 16 contracts traded, $920 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$920

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

42

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 11 completed sessions

Volume rank45th
Volume/OI rank36th
IV rank45th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close72.33
1W+1.0%
RS-6.0
Fair value+20.5%
Options pressure17
Speculation6
Volatility31
Trend fit71

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 3.1% muted
30d avg 4.6% · 11 sessions 0th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions -
IV 0.26 near normal
30d avg 0.31 · 11 sessions 45th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.85 near normal
30d avg 0.51 · 11 sessions 73th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.04 near normal
30d avg 0.07 · 11 sessions 36th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:15 Bullish
Pressure 91
Move 4.7%
30 Jul 10:11 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 4.5%
30 Jul 15:22 Bullish
Pressure 37
Move 4.2%
30 Jul 19:35 Bullish
Pressure 78
Move 4.9%
2 Aug 15:30 Bullish
Pressure 76
Move 5.9%
3 Aug 16:32 Bullish
Pressure 40
Move 5.1%
4 Aug 19:35 Bullish
Pressure 63
Move 5.3%
5 Aug 00:50 Bullish
Pressure 69
Move 5.2%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 15
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 12
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 42
Strike70.00
Calls · V 24 · OI 47
Puts · V 2 · OI 228

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.05
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV0.23
Put-call0.44
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV0.22
Put-call7.16
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts28
Avg IV0.22
Put-call0.02

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.14
Put IV0.23
Skew0.09
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.18
Put IV0.22
Skew0.04
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.17
Put IV0.27
Skew0.10
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.19
Put IV0.27
Skew0.08

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractES261016P00070000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike70.00
Volume133
OI207
IV0.25
ContractES270115C00075000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike75.00
Volume80
OI207
IV0.18
ContractES260821C00075000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike75.00
Volume35
OI2253
IV0.14
ContractES260821C00070000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike70.00
Volume24
OI47
IV0.18
ContractES260918C00075000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike75.00
Volume16
OI774
IV0.18
ContractES261016C00080000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike80.00
Volume8
OI520
IV0.18
ContractES261016C00070000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike70.00
Volume8
OI156
IV0.17
ContractES260918P00070000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike70.00
Volume5
OI42
IV0.22

Evidence context