Ticker Options Intelligence

AGIO options intelligence

Agios Pharm options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 58 Market data through 11 Aug 2026 Checked 12 Aug 2026 13:45 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

AGIO currently carries bullish options pressure with a 58/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 8.5%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.00

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +7.5%

RS -14.1

Expected move 8.5%
Put-call volume -
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.51
Max pain 30.00
Underlying 32.27
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 202

Research Brief

AGIO has a bullish chain read with 58/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 29.53–35.01; The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00.

Priced range29.53–35.01
Call concentration30.00
Put concentration30.00
Max pain reference30.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 29.53 to 35.01. Max pain at 30.00 sits inside that range, 7.0% below spot.

Spot Max pain
29.5332.27 ± 2.7435.01
Confirmation level

A close beyond 35.01 or below 29.53 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 58/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation40 × 22%
+8.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility70 × 10%
+7.0

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score57.8Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
12.50-61.3%
0
22
15.00-53.5%
1
100
17.50-45.8%
0
9
20.00-38.0%
0
5
22.50-30.3%
0
393
25.00-22.5%
322
794
30.00-7.0%
865
252
35.008.5%
637
3
40.0024.0%
202
0
45.0039.4%
424
0
50.0054.9%
337
0
55.0070.4%
50
0
60.0085.9%
0
0
65.00101.4%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported Greeks · 98% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$866,464Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak30.00+$809,094
Negative peak25.00-$24,603
Nearest balance25.15Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
12.50-61.3%
-$370
15.00-53.5%
+$145
17.50-45.8%
-$169
20.00-38.0%
-$272
22.50-30.3%
-$9,150
25.00-22.5%
-$24,603
30.00-7.0%
+$809,094
35.008.5%
+$12,312
40.0024.0%
+$5,247
45.0039.4%
+$59,070
50.0054.9%
+$13,338
55.0070.4%
+$764
60.0085.9%
+$1,050
65.00101.4%
+$8
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.75× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.51 21 Aug 10d
0.46 18 Sep 38d
0.53 16 Oct 66d
0.67 20 Nov 101d
0.73 18 Dec 129d
0.73 15 Jan 157d
0.88 19 Feb 192d
0.68 21 Jan 528d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

30
35
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
11 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
202 / 202
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

62/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $330,812 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+100
1W price+7.5%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 100% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 320 contracts traded, $325,200 estimated gross traded notional, and 98% of visible notional.
$325,200
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM calls cluster with 40 contracts traded, $5,300 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$5,300
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $312 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$312

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

27

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 10 completed sessions

Volume rank30th
Volume/OI rank20th
IV rank30th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close32.27
1W+7.5%
RS-14.1
Fair value-4.2%
Options pressure100
Speculation40
Volatility70
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 8.5% muted
30d avg 11.5% · 10 sessions 0th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
IV 0.51 near normal
30d avg 0.69 · 10 sessions 30th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.00 muted
30d avg 1.20 · 10 sessions 10th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 muted
30d avg 0.02 · 10 sessions 20th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:04 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 9.8%
30 Jul 10:52 Bullish
Pressure 45
Move 10.9%
31 Jul 10:35 Volatility
Pressure 92
Move 11.2%
3 Aug 04:11 Volatility
Pressure 76
Move 12.7%
4 Aug 12:50 Bearish
Pressure -56
Move 8.6%
4 Aug 17:24 Mixed
Pressure 1
Move 10.7%
6 Aug 10:21 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 12.8%
6 Aug 20:01 Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 13.9%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 22
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 100
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 9
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 322
Puts · V 0 · OI 393
Strike30.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 865
Puts · V 0 · OI 794
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 637
Puts · V 0 · OI 252

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts28
Avg IV0.51
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.46
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.53
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts28
Avg IV0.67
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts28
Avg IV0.73
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.26
Skew0.06
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.51
Skew-0.01
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.62
Put IV0.56
Skew-0.06
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.69
Put IV0.66
Skew-0.03
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.71
Put IV0.83
Skew0.13

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractAGIO270219C00030000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike30.00
Volume300
OI4510
IV0.91
ContractAGIO260918C00035000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike35.00
Volume40
OI3
IV0.52
ContractAGIO270219C00020000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike20.00
Volume20
OI20
IV1.14
ContractAGIO260821C00030000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume1
OI865
IV0.65
ContractAGIO261218C00030000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI26226
IV0.74
ContractAGIO270115C00045000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike45.00
Volume-
OI2012
IV0.69
ContractAGIO270115P00025000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI1651
IV0.62
ContractAGIO261218C00050000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI1121
IV0.27

Evidence context