Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
PATX options intelligence
Tradr 2X Long PATH Daily ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
53
Market data through 11 Sep 2026
Checked 14 Sep 2026 13:21 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
PATX currently carries volatility options pressure with a 53/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 13.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.
Expected move
13.0%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.05
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
-
Balanced tape
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-20.4%
Sharemaestro weekly context
Expected move
13.0%
Put-call volume
-
Volume / OI
0.05
Reference IV
1.02
Max pain
11.00
Underlying
10.78
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
200
Research Brief
PATX has a volatility chain read with 53/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 9.38–12.18; The largest call open-interest concentration is 21.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00.
Priced range9.38–12.18
Call concentration21.00
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference11.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 9.38 to 12.18. Max pain at 11.00 sits inside that range, 2.0% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
9.3810.78 ± 1.4012.18
Confirmation level
A close beyond 12.18 or below 9.38 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 53/100
Pressure is 98/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure98 × 42%
+41.2
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation9 × 22%
+2.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 21.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
1.00-90.7%
0
0
2.00-81.4%
0
1
4.00-62.9%
0
1
5.00-53.6%
0
3
6.00-44.3%
0
5
9.00-16.5%
2
34
10.00-7.2%
5
1
11.002.0%
4
9
12.0011.3%
5
1
14.0029.9%
1
0
15.0039.1%
4
0
16.0048.4%
1
0
18.0067.0%
1
0
20.0085.5%
2
0
21.0094.8%
7
0
22.00104.1%
1
0
27.00150.5%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Negative gamma proxy
Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile-$464Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak15.00+$93
Negative peak10.00-$659
Nearest balance10.92Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
4.00-62.9%
-$0
5.00-53.6%
-$1
6.00-44.3%
-$3
7.00-35.1%
-$6
8.00-25.8%
-$14
9.00-16.5%
-$8
10.00-7.2%
-$659
11.002.0%
+$61
12.0011.3%
-$23
13.0020.6%
+$19
14.0029.9%
-$61
15.0039.1%
+$93
16.0048.4%
+$66
18.0067.0%
+$2
19.0076.3%
+$33
20.0085.5%
+$24
21.0094.8%
+$8
22.00104.1%
+$1
27.00150.5%
+$1
30.00178.3%
+$4
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
1.02
18 Sep
7d
1.09
16 Oct
35d
1.25
18 Dec
98d
1.31
19 Mar
189d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
9
10
11
12
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 1 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 0% of the time.
Directional follow-through0%
Moves contained by pricing43%
Average expiry move44.1%
20 Aug
Mixed · 33
3.5% through expiry
7.8% priced · v2.0
19 Aug
Mixed · 37
3.5% through expiry
52.1% priced · v2.0
17 Aug
Volatility · 52
3.5% through expiry
11.7% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Volatility · 51
60.2% through expiry
33.4% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Mixed · 37
60.2% through expiry
25.3% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Volatility · 55
60.2% through expiry
24.6% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Bearish · 43
117.5% through expiry
30.2% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 11 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 200 / 200
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $365 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 0-7 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-98
1W price-20.4%
Call premium0%
Put premium100%
Notional split
C 0% / P 100%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.05
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 0-7 days · OTM
puts cluster with 8 contracts traded, $290 estimated gross traded notional, and 79% of visible notional.
$290
Puts · 0-7 days · ATM
puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $75 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$75
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 13 completed sessions
Volume rank62th
Volume/OI rank46th
IV rank15th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close10.78
1W-20.4%
RS-
Fair value+2.5%
Options pressure-98
Speculation9
Volatility96
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 7/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 13/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 13/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 7/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 13/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 13/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 7/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 12/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 12/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 7/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 13/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 13/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 12:53
Volatility
Pressure -99
Move 28.6%
30 Jul 12:46
Volatility
Pressure 79
Move 45.3%
31 Jul 12:14
Bearish
Pressure -41
Move 30.2%
3 Aug 11:05
Volatility
Pressure -91
Move 24.6%
4 Aug 12:16
Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 25.3%
5 Aug 12:44
Volatility
Pressure 92
Move 33.4%
17 Aug 14:38
Mixed
Pressure 1
Move 55.9%
18 Aug 05:46
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 11.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike1.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts62
Avg IV1.02
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV1.09
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV1.25
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts48
Avg IV1.31
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.43
Put IV1.27
Skew0.84
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.27
Put IV1.01
Skew-0.26
18 Dec 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.40
Put IV1.25
Skew-0.15
19 Mar 2027Call IV premium
Call IV1.40
Put IV1.33
Skew-0.07
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractPATX260918P00010000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume7
OI34
IV1.27
ContractPATX260918P00005000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike5.00
Volume1
OI1
IV2.45
ContractPATX260918P00011000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike11.00
Volume1
OI1
IV1.06
ContractPATX261218C00012000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike12.00
Volume-
OI16
IV1.28
ContractPATX260918P00012000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike12.00
Volume-
OI9
IV1.04
ContractPATX261218C00015000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI7
IV1.28
ContractPATX260918C00021000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike21.00
Volume-
OI7
IV1.98
ContractPATX261218C00019000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike19.00
Volume-
OI6
IV1.40
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.