Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
LAR options intelligence
Lithium Argentina AG options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
59
Market data through 11 Aug 2026
Checked 12 Aug 2026 14:24 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
LAR currently carries volatility options pressure with a 59/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 15.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.17.
Expected move
15.5%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.17
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.06
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+15.5%
RS -3.1
Expected move
15.5%
Put-call volume
0.06
Volume / OI
0.17
Reference IV
0.97
Max pain
7.50
Underlying
6.94
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
114
Research Brief
LAR has a volatility chain read with 59/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 5.87–8.01; The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 5.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00.
Priced range5.87–8.01
Call concentration10.00
Put concentration5.00
Max pain reference7.50
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 5.87 to 8.01. Max pain at 7.50 sits inside that range, 8.1% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
5.876.94 ± 1.078.01
Confirmation level
A close beyond 8.01 or below 5.87 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 59/100
Pressure is 98/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure98 × 42%
+41.1
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation36 × 22%
+8.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 5.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
14
2.50-64.0%
31
4239
5.00-28.0%
845
1462
7.508.1%
1837
44
10.0044.1%
4415
0
12.5080.1%
3372
0
15.00116.1%
3335
1
17.50152.2%
150
1
20.00188.2%
3
0
22.50224.2%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$52,613Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak12.50+$26,350
Negative peak5.00-$17,237
Nearest balance6.29Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50-64.0%
+$151
5.00-28.0%
-$17,237
7.508.1%
+$16,217
10.0044.1%
+$19,117
12.5080.1%
+$26,350
15.00116.1%
+$6,013
17.50152.2%
+$1,631
20.00188.2%
+$57
22.50224.2%
+$314
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.97
21 Aug
10d
0.70
18 Sep
38d
0.85
20 Nov
101d
0.82
18 Dec
129d
0.70
15 Jan
157d
0.78
19 Feb
192d
0.81
21 Jan
528d
Volatility by Strike
Smile incomplete
There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.
8
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 11 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 114 / 114
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $730,549 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+98
1W price+15.5%
Call premium98%
Put premium2%
Notional split
C 98% / P 2%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.17
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 5191 contracts traded, $615,790 estimated gross traded notional, and 84% of visible notional.
$615,790
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 554 contracts traded, $88,640 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$88,640
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM
puts cluster with 53 contracts traded, $6,095 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$6,095
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 21 contracts traded, $5,898 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$5,898
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 25 contracts traded, $4,530 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$4,530
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Above normal
Activity is running above the recent historical baseline.
Baseline: 10 completed sessions
Volume rank100th
Volume/OI rank100th
IV rank20th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close6.94
1W+15.5%
RS-3.1
Fair value+49.8%
Options pressure98
Speculation36
Volatility96
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 21.0% · 10 sessions
20th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 1.12 · 10 sessions
20th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 6.92 · 10 sessions
20th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.03 · 10 sessions
100th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:04
Mixed
Pressure 15
Move 20.1%
30 Jul 10:52
Volatility
Pressure -49
Move 17.9%
30 Jul 15:10
Mixed
Pressure -1
Move 20.9%
30 Jul 15:41
Mixed
Pressure -1
Move 20.1%
30 Jul 19:38
Mixed
Pressure -5
Move 20.5%
31 Jul 16:58
Volatility
Pressure -70
Move 21.8%
31 Jul 20:02
Volatility
Pressure -69
Move 21.8%
1 Aug 00:17
Volatility
Pressure -69
Move 22.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 31
Puts · V 0 · OI 14
Strike5.00
Calls · V 554 · OI 845
Puts · V 0 · OI 4239
Strike7.50
Calls · V 254 · OI 1837
Puts · V 20 · OI 1462
Strike10.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 4415
Puts · V 0 · OI 44
Strike12.50
Calls · V 504 · OI 3372
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3335
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 150
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.97
Put-call0.02
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts10
Avg IV0.70
Put-call6.09
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.85
Put-call0.14
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.82
Put-call0.03
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts18
Avg IV0.70
Put-call0.01
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.82
Put IV0.91
Skew0.09
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.73
Put IV0.47
Skew-0.25
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.69
Put IV0.79
Skew0.10
18 Dec 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.74
Put IV0.67
Skew-0.07
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.86
Put IV0.79
Skew-0.08
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractLAR270115C00007500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike7.50
Volume4640
OI2322
IV0.86
ContractLAR260821C00005000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume554
OI845
IV0.01
ContractLAR260821C00012500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike12.50
Volume504
OI3372
IV1.67
ContractLAR261120C00007500
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike7.50
Volume384
OI115
IV0.80
ContractLAR260821C00007500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike7.50
Volume254
OI1837
IV0.82
ContractLAR260918P00005000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike5.00
Volume209
OI52
IV0.47
ContractLAR280121C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike10.00
Volume101
OI253
IV0.64
ContractLAR260918P00007500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike7.50
Volume53
OI356
IV0.73
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.