Ticker Options Intelligence

TOST options intelligence

Toast Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 42 Market data through 24 Aug 2026 Checked 24 Aug 2026 14:43 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

TOST currently carries bullish options pressure with a 42/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 4.1%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.05

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.39

Call-side skew

Trend fit 43

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +5.4%

RS 3.8

Expected move 4.1%
Put-call volume 0.39
Volume / OI 0.05
Reference IV 0.02
Max pain 30.00
Underlying 36.64
Nearest expiry 28 Aug 2026
Contracts 544

Research Brief

TOST has a bullish chain read with 42/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 35.12–38.16; The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 32.50. The most active strike by current volume is 38.00.

Priced range35.12–38.16
Call concentration30.00
Put concentration32.50
Max pain reference30.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 28 Aug

Options imply 35.12 to 38.16. Max pain at 30.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
35.1236.64 ± 1.5238.16
Confirmation level

A close beyond 38.16 or below 35.12 at the 28 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 42/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 49/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure49 × 42%
+20.5

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation37 × 22%
+8.2

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement43 × 26%
+11.3

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility18 × 10%
+1.8

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score41.8Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 32.50. The most active strike by current volume is 38.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
25
26.00-29.0%
135
12
27.00-26.3%
108
216
30.00-18.1%
3339
85
31.00-15.4%
859
89
32.00-12.7%
262
289
32.50-11.3%
109
208
33.00-9.9%
609
149
34.00-7.2%
151
156
35.00-4.5%
179
89
35.50-3.1%
63
129
36.00-1.7%
635
16
36.50-0.4%
182
123
37.001.0%
428
0
37.502.3%
281
0
38.003.7%
552
0
40.009.2%
158
0
42.0014.6%
626
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Negative gamma proxy

Model-estimated Greeks · 57% coverage

Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile-$181,305Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak38.00+$8,453
Negative peak35.00-$70,665
Nearest balance37.00Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
31.50-14.0%
-$4
32.00-12.7%
-$4,300
32.50-11.3%
-$4
33.00-9.9%
-$4,816
33.50-8.6%
-$65
34.00-7.2%
-$4,895
34.50-5.8%
-$365
35.00-4.5%
-$70,665
35.50-3.1%
-$5,370
36.00-1.7%
-$60,765
36.50-0.4%
-$47,911
37.001.0%
+$104
37.502.3%
+$1,191
38.003.7%
+$8,453
38.505.1%
+$6
39.006.4%
+$526
39.507.8%
+$3
40.009.2%
+$3,150
40.5010.5%
+$17
41.0011.9%
+$961
42.0014.6%
+$3,703
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.71× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.02 28 Aug 4d
0.01 4 Sep 11d
0.02 11 Sep 18d
0.02 18 Sep 25d
0.02 25 Sep 32d
0.02 2 Oct 39d
0.01 16 Oct 53d
0.01 20 Nov 88d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

30
30
31
32
32
33
34
34
35
35
36
37
37
38
39
39
40
40
41
42
43
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

16 matured · 11 directional

Across 11 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 100% of the time.

Directional follow-through100%
Moves contained by pricing63%
Average expiry move4.8%
20 Aug Mixed · 38 5.4% through expiry 3.0% priced · v2.0
19 Aug Bullish · 43 5.4% through expiry 2.9% priced · v2.0
18 Aug Bullish · 45 5.4% through expiry 3.3% priced · v2.0
17 Aug Bullish · 41 5.4% through expiry 3.3% priced · v2.0
14 Aug Bullish · 44 5.4% through expiry 4.1% priced · v2.0
13 Aug Bullish · 37 0.8% through expiry 2.7% priced · v2.0
12 Aug Bullish · 33 0.8% through expiry 2.8% priced · v2.0
11 Aug Bullish · 39 0.8% through expiry 3.3% priced · v2.0
10 Aug Bullish · 36 0.8% through expiry 4.6% priced · v2.0
7 Aug Mixed · 32 0.8% through expiry 4.1% priced · v2.0
6 Aug Mixed · 35 6.8% through expiry 7.5% priced · v2.0
5 Aug Volatility · 45 6.8% through expiry 7.9% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
24 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
544 / 544
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

77/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $4.5M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+49
1W price+5.4%
Call premium73%
Put premium27%
Notional split C 73% / P 27% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.05 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 43/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 1704 contracts traded, $1.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 32% of visible notional.
$1.4M
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 605 contracts traded, $782,169 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$782,169
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM calls cluster with 825 contracts traded, $529,013 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$529,013
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 902 contracts traded, $311,423 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$311,423
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM calls cluster with 407 contracts traded, $260,634 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$260,634

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

42

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 19 completed sessions

Volume rank58th
Volume/OI rank68th
IV rank0th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close36.64
1W+5.4%
RS3.8
Fair value+21.4%
Options pressure49
Speculation37
Volatility18
Trend fit43

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 4.1% near normal
30d avg 6.1% · 19 sessions 58th
90d avg - · 19/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 19/60 sessions -
IV 0.02 muted
30d avg 0.66 · 19 sessions 0th
90d avg - · 19/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 19/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.39 near normal
30d avg 0.57 · 19 sessions 37th
90d avg - · 19/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 19/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.05 near normal
30d avg 0.05 · 19 sessions 68th
90d avg - · 19/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 19/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:22 Volatility
Pressure 53
Move 12.2%
30 Jul 10:19 Volatility
Pressure -15
Move 13.1%
31 Jul 10:10 Mixed
Pressure 16
Move 3.5%
31 Jul 17:10 Mixed
Pressure 17
Move 10.1%
1 Aug 05:47 Bullish
Pressure 49
Move 18.2%
2 Aug 05:56 Bullish
Pressure 49
Move 10.8%
2 Aug 06:38 Bullish
Pressure 47
Move 11.5%
3 Aug 23:24 Bullish
Pressure 54
Move 11.1%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike19.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 13
Strike23.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 12
Strike24.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 2
Strike25.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 2 · OI 9
Strike26.00
Calls · V 100 · OI 135
Puts · V 5 · OI 25
Strike27.00
Calls · V 100 · OI 108
Puts · V 1 · OI 12

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.02
Put-call0.37
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts62
Avg IV0.01
Put-call0.23
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.02
Put-call1.15
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts65
Avg IV0.02
Put-call0.31
Expiry25 Sep 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.02
Put-call0.36

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.13
Put IV0.13
Skew-
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.06
Put IV0.06
Skew-
11 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.03
Put IV0.06
Skew0.03
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.03
Put IV0.06
Skew0.03
25 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.03
Put IV0.06
Skew0.03

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractTOST260911C00025000
SideCall
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI85
IV0.00
ContractTOST261120C00031000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike31.00
Volume-
OI48
IV0.00
ContractTOST261120P00038000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike38.00
Volume-
OI28
IV0.00
ContractTOST260904P00023000
SidePut
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike23.00
Volume-
OI25
IV0.50
ContractTOST260904C00034500
SideCall
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike34.50
Volume-
OI24
IV0.00
ContractTOST261002C00031000
SideCall
Expiry2 Oct 2026
Strike31.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.00
ContractTOST261120P00032000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike32.00
Volume-
OI16
IV0.06
ContractTOST261002C00038000
SideCall
Expiry2 Oct 2026
Strike38.00
Volume-
OI11
IV0.03

Evidence context